{"id":347729,"date":"2026-09-02T16:25:24","date_gmt":"2026-09-02T15:25:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=347729"},"modified":"2026-09-02T16:25:24","modified_gmt":"2026-09-02T15:25:24","slug":"irans-regime-is-managing-the-gasoline-crisis-by-postponing-the-shock","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/irans-regime-is-managing-the-gasoline-crisis-by-postponing-the-shock\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s Regime Is Managing the Gasoline Crisis by Postponing the Shock"},"content":{"rendered":"
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A motorist operates a fuel pump at a gas station in Iran<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Three-minute read<\/span><\/i><\/b>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Iran\u2019s regime appears to have drawn a lesson from previous gasoline crises<\/a>: never give an angry population one clear moment around which to mobilize.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

So instead of imposing the unavoidable price shock at once, authorities are breaking it into smaller pieces\u2014floating prices, reversing them, reducing access to cheap fuel, tightening distribution and increasingly stretching the fuel itself. The objective is to acclimatize society gradually. The danger is that Tehran may only be converting an immediate gasoline shock into a delayed crisis involving millions of motorists and their cars.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The first instrument is price management through psychological sequencing.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The government has already acknowledged that the status quo cannot continue. Its spokeswoman said on July 25, 2026, that a change in gasoline prices or quotas was effectively inevitable.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Then came an extraordinary test. On August 13, authorities began a pilot program in Kerman<\/a> under which gasoline consumed beyond subsidized quotas would cost 87,200 tomans per liter\u2014roughly the claimed refinery cost. Within hours, the scheme was suspended. Officials offered little explanation beyond saying the governor had intervened with national authorities.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The reversal should not necessarily be read as abandonment. It provided the regime with something valuable: a live measurement of public reaction to an extreme price.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

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#Iran<\/a>\u2019s Three Tier Gasoline Plan Collides with Food Inflation and Health Strainhttps:\/\/t.co\/6hQVa2aNv7<\/a><\/p>\n

— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) December 13, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n