{"id":348489,"date":"2026-10-02T15:32:27","date_gmt":"2026-10-02T14:32:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=348489"},"modified":"2026-10-02T15:32:27","modified_gmt":"2026-10-02T14:32:27","slug":"irans-economy-at-breaking-point-inflation-falling-incomes-and-a-crisis-that-reaches-into-every-home","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/irans-economy-at-breaking-point-inflation-falling-incomes-and-a-crisis-that-reaches-into-every-home\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s Economy at Breaking Point: Inflation, Falling Incomes and a Crisis That Reaches into Every Home"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"An
An Iranian man peers inside a partially closed shop<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Nine-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

For millions of Iranian families, the economic crisis<\/a> is no longer measured primarily in inflation rates, budget deficits or monetary aggregates. It is measured at the bakery, the butcher\u2019s counter, the pharmacy and the landlord\u2019s door.<\/p>\n

In parts of the country, according to accounts published in the Iranian press, customers who once bought a full loaf of bread are asking for half. Fruit, increasingly beyond the reach of ordinary salaries, is being purchased by the piece rather than by the kilogram. Meat, dairy products and other staples have gradually disappeared from the diets of many lower-income households.<\/p>\n

Behind these daily adjustments lies a much larger economic breakdown: exceptionally high inflation, rapid monetary expansion, a depreciating currency, chronic government deficits, weak investment, a distressed banking system and a labor market in which millions of working-age Iranians are no longer economically active.<\/p>\n

The scale of the deterioration can be seen in the rial itself. The free-market price of the US dollar rose from roughly 60,000 tomans in September 2024 to around 258,000 tomans<\/a> by October 2, 2026. Beyond all expert opinion, the direction is unmistakable: the purchasing power of the national currency has been severely eroded.<\/p>\n

International institutions are similarly pessimistic about the broader economy. The International Monetary Fund currently projects average consumer-price inflation in Iran at 68.9 percent in 2026. Its July 2026 country data also projects a contraction in real GDP.<\/p>\n

The World Bank\u2019s June 2026 Global Economic Prospects report<\/a>, meanwhile, estimated a 2.8 percent contraction for Iran in the 2025\/26 fiscal period.<\/p>\n

\n

The Iranian regime\u2019s own media are connecting the dots:
\u2022 Inflation: 83.8%
\u2022 January unrest began with an \u201c#economic<\/a> spark\u201d
\u2022 Security chiefs warn every \u201cspark\u201d could become a \u201cflame\u201d
\u2022 Universities, hijab and even pessimism are increasingly treated as security issues.\u2026<\/p>\n

— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) September 26, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n