{"id":349010,"date":"2026-10-27T12:07:15","date_gmt":"2026-10-27T11:07:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=349010"},"modified":"2026-10-27T12:07:15","modified_gmt":"2026-10-27T11:07:15","slug":"seven-years-after-november-2019-tehran-fears-the-next-spark","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-protests\/seven-years-after-november-2019-tehran-fears-the-next-spark\/","title":{"rendered":"Seven Years After November 2019, Tehran Fears the Next Spark"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_323653\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-323653\" style=\"width: 1000px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-323653\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/iran-masoud-pezeshkian-november-2019-uprising.jpg\" alt=\"President Masoud Pezeshkian seen in a moment of deep concern, as images of past nationwide protests loom behind him\" width=\"1000\" height=\"562\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/iran-masoud-pezeshkian-november-2019-uprising.jpg 1000w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/iran-masoud-pezeshkian-november-2019-uprising-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/iran-masoud-pezeshkian-november-2019-uprising-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/iran-masoud-pezeshkian-november-2019-uprising-747x420.jpg 747w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/iran-masoud-pezeshkian-november-2019-uprising-150x84.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/iran-masoud-pezeshkian-november-2019-uprising-696x391.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1000px) 100vw, 1000px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-323653\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">President Masoud Pezeshkian seen in a moment of deep concern, as images of past nationwide protests loom behind him<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><b><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Three-minute read<\/span><\/i><\/b><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Seven years after a sudden gasoline-price increase helped ignite the November 2019 uprising, the fear of another uncontrolled eruption is again visible inside Iran\u2019s own political and media establishment.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">This time, the warning comes from the\u00a0 regime\u2019s president himself.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Speaking on October 12 about gasoline reform, Masoud <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/poollnews.ir\/517787\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Pezeshkian acknowledged<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> that the current price structure was economically unsustainable but warned that abrupt intervention would \u201cupend the whole society.\u201d His prescription was gradualism: move slowly enough that society can \u201ctolerate\u201d the change.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The language is remarkable because November 2019 demonstrated precisely what Tehran now fears: a seemingly economic decision becoming political almost overnight.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">3)<br \/>Iran: 2019 Uprising, Tehran\u2019s Stance on the <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/MEK?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#MEK<\/a>\u2019s Role in the 2019 <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a> Protests<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/WeStand4FreeIran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#WeStand4FreeIran<\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/njB5YR8Z6p\">https:\/\/t.co\/njB5YR8Z6p<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/v8febkpaHp\">pic.twitter.com\/v8febkpaHp<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1322931305638776832?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 1, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">The Economic Cushion Is Much Thinner<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245418&quot;:true,&quot;134245529&quot;:true,&quot;335559738&quot;:160,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The material conditions surrounding today\u2019s debate are substantially harsher.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">According to September figures from Iran\u2019s Statistical Center, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.tasnimnews.ir\/fa\/news\/1405\/07\/10\/3711540\/%D8%AA%D8%BA%DB%8C%DB%8C%D8%B1-%D9%85%D9%87%D9%85-%D8%AF%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%85-%D8%B4%D9%87%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%88%D8%B1-%D9%81%D8%B4%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D9%82%DB%8C%D9%85%D8%AA-%D9%87%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D8%AE%D9%88%D8%B1%D8%A7%DA%A9%DB%8C-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D8%AE%D8%AF%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D9%85%D9%86%D8%AA%D9%82%D9%84-%D8%B4%D8%AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">published this month<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> by state media, consumer prices were 89.8 percent higher than a year earlier, while annual inflation reached 73.6 percent. Food prices were even more punishing: food inflation stood at 121.8 percent year-on-year, with annual food inflation at 108.8 percent. For poorer households, which spend a far larger share of their income on food, the blow is proportionally greater.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">At the same time, the gasoline imbalance that officials have been warning about has not disappeared. <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/newsmedia.tasnimnews.ir\/fa\/news\/1405\/08\/04\/3732375\/%D9%85%D8%B9%D9%85%D8%A7%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AA-%D8%AC%D8%A7%DB%8C%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%87-%D9%82%D8%A7%DA%86%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9%88-%D8%B5%D9%81-%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%B2%DB%8C%D9%86\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Tasnim reported<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> this week that daily consumption has reached roughly 135 to 147 million liters, against production of about 121 million liters\u2014leaving a persistent gap of 15 to 20 million liters a day.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The government therefore confronts the same political trap from opposite directions: keeping gasoline artificially cheap worsens fiscal and supply pressures, while raising its price risks hitting households whose purchasing power has already been shredded.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">That is why <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/iran-protests\/iran-november-2019-uprising-and-its-amplifications\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">November 2019 keeps resurfacing<\/a>.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">In the beginning of the 3rd month of Iran uprising, the brave women men and youths of Iran held demonstrations, strikes, and protests in more than 50 universities and 50 bazaars across the country, renewing their pledge with the martyrs of the November 2019 uprising<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/IranProtests?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#IranProtests<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/MQVMJc95JV\">pic.twitter.com\/MQVMJc95JV<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Maryam Rajavi (@Maryam_Rajavi) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/Maryam_Rajavi\/status\/1592610066838196224?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 15, 2022<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">The Warning Began Before October\u2014and It Was About This Same Crisis<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245418&quot;:true,&quot;134245529&quot;:true,&quot;335559738&quot;:160,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Some of the clearest regime-media warnings appeared in August. They matter now because they were not anniversary retrospectives; they were written during the same gasoline-policy debate that remains unresolved in October.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Since then, Tehran has introduced a third gasoline rate, Pezeshkian has publicly warned that sudden intervention could destabilize society, and the government has continued scrambling over imports, consumption and subsidies. In other words, the August warnings described the crisis now unfolding.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/khabarfarsi.com\/u\/255105178\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">State media warned<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> at the time that the lesson of 2019 was unmistakable: raising fuel prices beyond society\u2019s capacity to absorb them could turn an economic decision into a \u201cpolitical and social crisis.\u201d One commentary went further, saying the issue was not whether gasoline might reach a particular price but whether society could endure even another small increase.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/khabarfarsi.com\/u\/255172258\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Jamaran fra<\/span><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/newsmedia.tasnimnews.ir\/fa\/news\/1405\/08\/04\/3732375\/%D9%85%D8%B9%D9%85%D8%A7%DB%8C-%DA%A9%D8%A7%D8%B1%D8%AA-%D8%AC%D8%A7%DB%8C%DA%AF%D8%A7%D9%87-%D9%82%D8%A7%DA%86%D8%A7%D9%82-%D9%88-%D8%B5%D9%81-%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%B2%DB%8C%D9%86\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">med<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> the issue explicitly as one of national security. It argued that a future protest would not necessarily repeat November 2019 because Iranian society had undergone major economic, political and communications changes since then. Economic grievances, it warned, could now connect much faster with social and political demands.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Five years ago, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>&#39;s November 2019 uprising erupted in over 190 cities\u2014an outcry against tyranny and injustice. Despite the regime\u2019s brutal crackdown, the <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/MEKResistanceUnits?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#MEKResistanceUnits<\/a> stood tall, leading the charge for freedom. Their sacrifices still ignite Iran\u2019s fight for democracy. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/sstpdflCP2\">pic.twitter.com\/sstpdflCP2<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1857539234401222863?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 15, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Another widely circulated establishment warning was even blunter: society, it said, was in a more critical condition than in 2019, and the existing situation needed only a \u201cspark.\u201d The point was not that gasoline had to provide it. If fuel did not become the trigger, something else could.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">That is the most consequential change since 2019.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\" aria-level=\"2\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">The Fear Is No Longer Just About Gasoline<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{&quot;134245418&quot;:true,&quot;134245529&quot;:true,&quot;335559738&quot;:160,&quot;335559739&quot;:80}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Recent statements suggest officials themselves understand that economic pressure is only one component.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">On October 25, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/eghtesadefarsi.com\/political-cultural-social\/243625\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">Pezeshkian said<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> that recent unrest was driven largely by social problems and urged officials to recognize \u201cthe pain of young people\u201d and the problems confronting the population. He tied cooperation directly to whether citizens trusted the state.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">\u270aNovember 2019 Uprising: The Heroic Role of Women in Iran\u2019s Fight for Freedom <\/p>\n<p>The November 2019 uprising exemplified the Iranian people\u2019s determination to overthrow the oppressive regime. Sparked by a sudden hike in fuel prices on November 15, 2019, protests rapidly spread\u2026 <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/mAPOTzrLEi\">pic.twitter.com\/mAPOTzrLEi<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Women&#39;s Committee NCRI (@womenncri) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/womenncri\/status\/1989314249244491987?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">November 14, 2025<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The same weekend, Alireza Aghayousefi, head of Iran\u2019s Psychology and Counseling Organization, issued an unusually stark assessment in an interview with ILNA. Asked how far Iranian society was from a psychological \u201cstate of emergency,\u201d he answered: \u201cI don\u2019t think we are very far.\u201d<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ilna.ir\/%D8%A8%D8%AE%D8%B4-%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%A7%D8%B9%DB%8C-5\/1855603-%D9%81%D8%A7%D8%B5%D9%84%D9%87-%D8%B2%DB%8C%D8%A7%D8%AF%DB%8C-%D8%AA%D8%A7-%D8%B1%D8%B3%DB%8C%D8%AF%D9%86-%D8%A8%D9%87-%D9%86%D9%82%D8%B7%D9%87-%D8%A7%D8%B6%D8%B7%D8%B1%D8%A7%D8%B1-%D8%B3%D9%84%D8%A7%D9%85%D8%AA-%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%86%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B1%DB%8C%D9%85-%D9%81%DB%8C%D9%84%D9%85\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span data-contrast=\"none\">ILNA described<\/span><\/a><span data-contrast=\"auto\"> a society being worn down by inflation, economic insecurity, fear about the future, and the prolonged condition of \u201cneither war nor peace.\u201d Aghayousefi warned that social conditions were moving toward <\/span><i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">anomie<\/span><\/i><span data-contrast=\"auto\">\u2014the erosion of norms and social cohesion\u2014and that prolonged uncertainty was producing psychological exhaustion.\u00a0<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">That is what makes comparisons with November 2019 increasingly difficult for the regime to avoid.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In 2019, gasoline was the immediate trigger, but the uprising drew its force from accumulated economic frustration and deep political alienation.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>: During November 2019, at least 1,500 protesters were massacred. The <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/Iranian?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iranian<\/a> resistance published the names and the identities of 828 martyrs of the November 2019 uprising. The list of names can be seen in the following link: <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/IranProtests?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#IranProtests<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/SgF4gc96H3\">https:\/\/t.co\/SgF4gc96H3<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/iran_policy\/status\/1377520584653996032?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">April 1, 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Today, by the regime\u2019s own statistics and commentary, inflation is crushing household purchasing power, fuel supplies are structurally imbalanced, young people are described as angry and hurting, public trust has deteriorated, and even officials responsible for social health are warning of exhaustion and declining cohesion.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">Tehran\u2019s problem is therefore no longer simply how to avoid repeating one <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/fuel-crises-halting-oil-exports-and-rising-inflation-push-iran-toward-unrest\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">disastrous gasoline decision<\/a>.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">It is how to govern a society in which far more potential triggers now sit on top of far deeper grievances.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">In November 2019, gasoline supplied the match.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span data-contrast=\"auto\">The fear running through today\u2019s establishment commentary is that seven years later, the combustible material is everywhere.<\/span><span data-ccp-props=\"{}\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Three-minute read&nbsp; Seven years after a sudden gasoline-price increase helped ignite the November 2019 uprising, the fear of another uncontrolled eruption is again visible inside Iran&rsquo;s own political and media establishment.&nbsp; This time, the warning comes from the&nbsp; regime&rsquo;s president himself.&nbsp; Speaking on October 12 about gasoline reform, Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged that the current price [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":91,"featured_media":323653,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-349010","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-iran-protests","tag-iran-protests"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.6 - 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