{"id":349110,"date":"2026-11-02T09:45:37","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T08:45:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/?p=349110"},"modified":"2026-11-02T09:45:37","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T08:45:37","slug":"irans-economy-is-running-out-of-its-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/irans-economy-is-running-out-of-its-future\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran\u2019s Economy Is Running Out of Its Future"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_338342\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-338342\" style=\"width: 999px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-338342\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/abadan-oil-workers-strike-18102025.jpg\" alt=\"Contract workers at Abadan Refinery protest unfulfilled promises and demand job security \u2013 October 18, 2025\" width=\"999\" height=\"566\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/abadan-oil-workers-strike-18102025.jpg 999w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/abadan-oil-workers-strike-18102025-300x170.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/abadan-oil-workers-strike-18102025-768x435.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/abadan-oil-workers-strike-18102025-741x420.jpg 741w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/abadan-oil-workers-strike-18102025-150x85.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/10\/abadan-oil-workers-strike-18102025-696x394.jpg 696w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 999px) 100vw, 999px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-338342\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Contract workers at Abadan Refinery protest unfulfilled promises and demand job security \u2013 October 18, 2025<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><em>Three-minute read<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Iran&#8217;s economic crisis is no longer merely a matter of inflation, sanctions or declining oil revenue. New evidence from Iranian government decisions, corporate financial statements and domestic newspapers points to a more damaging development: the country is increasingly struggling to replenish the resources required to keep its economy functioning.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The latest warning comes from the government&#8217;s own foreign-exchange policy.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bultanews.com\/fa\/news\/897172\/2816-%D8%B1%D8%AF%DB%8C%D9%81-%DA%A9%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A7-%D8%A7%D8%B2-%D9%85%D8%B1%DA%A9%D8%B2-%D9%85%D8%A8%D8%A7%D8%AF%D9%84%D9%87-%DA%A9%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%B1-%DA%AF%D8%B0%D8%A7%D8%B4%D8%AA%D9%87-%D8%B4%D8%AF%D9%86%D8%AF-%D8%AF%D9%88%D9%84%D8%AA-%D9%87%D8%B2%DB%8C%D9%86%D9%87-%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C-%D8%A7%D8%AD%D8%AA%D9%85%D8%A7%D9%84%DB%8C-%D8%B1%D8%A7-%D8%A8%D9%87-%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%86-%D9%85%D8%B1%D8%AF%D9%85-%D9%86%DB%8C%D9%86%D8%AF%D8%A7%D8%B2%D8%AF\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Boltan News<\/a>, an October 21 directive from the Ministry of Industry and the Central Bank removed 2,816 import-tariff lines from access to the official currency exchange center. Another 1,677 lines retained secondary access, while only 66 received first-priority treatment.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The imports have not been banned, but thousands of categories must now rely on alternative foreign-exchange financing. For manufacturers already facing severe currency shortages, the consequences could include higher costs, delayed imports and reduced production.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This is economic rationing on a substantial scale, and it exposes the government&#8217;s diminishing room for maneuver.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" title=\"You Cannot Shoot Hunger! Iran&rsquo;s economic collapse and the ultimate failure of repression.\" style=\"width:853px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_yzbVy_ggj_8\" itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><div><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FyzbVy_ggj_8%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"embedURL\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/yzbVy_ggj_8\" \/><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT6M27S\" \/><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2026-08-23T10:48:13Z\" \/><\/div><div id=\"lyte_yzbVy_ggj_8\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FyzbVy_ggj_8%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\" itemprop=\"name\">You Cannot Shoot Hunger! Iran\u2019s economic collapse and the ultimate failure of repression.<\/div><\/div><button tabindex=\"0\" class=\"play\"><\/button><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/yzbVy_ggj_8\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2FyzbVy_ggj_8%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"You Cannot Shoot Hunger! Iran&rsquo;s economic collapse and the ultimate failure of repression.\" width=\"853\" height=\"460\" \/><br \/>Watch this video on YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"In Iran, every act of dissent is treated as a crime against the state. Questioning the Supreme Leader borders on \u201cenmity against God.\u201d Yet what we are seeing is not a frightened population. It is a society that has run out of things left to lose. Western capitals often mistake the regime\u2019s brute survival for durability. But governments are not overthrown by macroeconomic statistics. They fall when their policies hollow out the human soul. Right now, Iran\u2019s collapse is measured not in percentage points, but in a baker throwing away dough, blackouts that destroy livelihoods, and food inflation that has turned red meat into a memory. Decades of corruption and mismanagement have emptied the reservoirs, darkened the cities, and destroyed the formal, digital, and informal economies. The regime\u2019s only remaining answer is the bullet. But the old arithmetic of terror is failing. Strikes return. Hunger does not get tired, does not go home at night, and does not negotiate. You can terrorize an opinion. You can shoot a demonstrator. But you cannot shoot hunger. Read More: https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/IranNCR\/ https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy Subscribe to NCRI weekly newsletter: https:\/\/bit.ly\/3SMgEla\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:853px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Factories Are Producing Less, Not Recovering<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The industrial figures are equally troubling.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">According to the <a href=\"https:\/\/sarasari.khorasanonline.ir\/Newspaper\/item\/159879\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Iranian newspaper Khorasan<\/a>, Iran Khodro&#8217;s production fell approximately 22% during the first six months of the current Iranian year, from 263,000 to 205,000 vehicles.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Yet its nominal operating revenue increased by 55%.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The explanation was largely higher prices, not increased productivity. Despite charging consumers more, the company recorded a net loss of approximately 7.9 trillion tomans.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Its debts exceeded 370 trillion tomans, including substantial obligations to customers awaiting vehicle deliveries.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Even more revealing, financial expenses had risen 163%, consuming approximately 90% of gross profit.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">These figures illustrate the weaknesses of an industrial system in which price increases cannot compensate for declining production, heavy debt and costly financing.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Saipa and Pars Khodro also reported substantial operating losses.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The regime&#8217;s industrial policies have not solved the underlying problems. The government has repeatedly relied on price adjustments and administrative interventions, while manufacturers remain burdened by financing constraints and production inefficiencies.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/Iran?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Iran<\/a>\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/Economic?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#Economic<\/a> Collapse, According to the Regime\u2019s Own Media <br \/>Iran\u2019s deepening economic crisis is becoming increasingly evident in statistics and reports published by state-run media. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/w3IaydnX9Q\">https:\/\/t.co\/w3IaydnX9Q<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/iran_policy\/status\/2113876883431690294?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">October 24, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">Hospitals Reveal a Deeper Crisis<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The consequences extend beyond factories.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In a detailed <a href=\"https:\/\/etemadnewspaper.ir\/fa\/main\/detail\/254648\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Etemad investigation<\/a>, Ali Jafarian, senior adviser to the regime&#8217;s health minister, acknowledged that sanctions, disrupted imports and the removal of preferential foreign exchange had made replacing essential medical equipment increasingly difficult.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">He estimated that an MRI machine could become seven times more expensive following changes to currency support.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">More importantly, he acknowledged that existing medical-service tariffs were insufficient to finance equipment replacement.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">This exposes a critical weakness: hospitals may continue operating while losing the financial capacity to maintain their future services.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The same report documented shortages of diagnostic kits, surgical supplies and imported medical components. State officials claimed that essential treatment had not suffered a nationwide breakdown, but they acknowledged serious procurement and financial difficulties.<\/p>\n<div class=\"lyte-wrapper\" title=\"The Playbook That Forced Iran&rsquo;s Regime to Stop Its War Machine &mdash; Still Works Today\" style=\"width:853px;max-width:100%;margin:5px;\"><div class=\"lyMe\" id=\"WYL_3bBzbe71oDk\" itemprop=\"video\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/VideoObject\"><div><meta itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\" content=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2F3bBzbe71oDk%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" \/><meta itemprop=\"embedURL\" content=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/3bBzbe71oDk\" \/><meta itemprop=\"duration\" content=\"PT5M33S\" \/><meta itemprop=\"uploadDate\" content=\"2026-08-03T13:31:17Z\" \/><\/div><div id=\"lyte_3bBzbe71oDk\" data-src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2F3bBzbe71oDk%2Fhqdefault.jpg\" class=\"pL\"><div class=\"tC\"><div class=\"tT\" itemprop=\"name\">The Playbook That Forced Iran\u2019s Regime to Stop Its War Machine \u2014 Still Works Today<\/div><\/div><button tabindex=\"0\" class=\"play\"><\/button><div class=\"ctrl\"><div class=\"Lctrl\"><\/div><div class=\"Rctrl\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><noscript><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/3bBzbe71oDk\" rel=\"nofollow\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/wp-content\/plugins\/wp-youtube-lyte\/lyteCache.php?origThumbUrl=https%3A%2F%2Fi.ytimg.com%2Fvi%2F3bBzbe71oDk%2F0.jpg\" alt=\"The Playbook That Forced Iran&rsquo;s Regime to Stop Its War Machine &mdash; Still Works Today\" width=\"853\" height=\"460\" \/><br \/>Watch this video on YouTube<\/a><\/noscript><meta itemprop=\"description\" content=\"Read More: https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/IranNCR\/ https:\/\/twitter.com\/iran_policy Subscribe to NCRI weekly newsletter: https:\/\/bit.ly\/3SMgEla\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"lL\" style=\"max-width:100%;width:853px;margin:5px;\"><\/div><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Government Is Deepening Existing Vulnerabilities<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">External pressure has clearly intensified the crisis. The naval blockade has disrupted oil exports and restricted access to international trade. But Iran entered this emergency with structural problems created by years of domestic economic mismanagement.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">As <a href=\"https:\/\/jahanesanat.ir\/?p=666773\">Jahan-e Sanat<\/a> noted in its discussion of economist Masoud Nili&#8217;s research, longstanding policies\u2014including artificially low energy prices, distorted interest rates and dependence on oil revenue to stabilize the exchange rate\u2014had already undermined economic efficiency.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">These vulnerabilities are now colliding with extraordinary restrictions on foreign trade.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The government&#8217;s responses demonstrate the dilemma: restricting access to foreign exchange may conserve scarce resources, but it can also raise industrial costs and discourage investment. Allowing prices to rise may relieve corporate financial pressure, but it further damages household purchasing power.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Meanwhile, <a href=\"https:\/\/hamdelidaily.ir\/%D8%B3%D9%88%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85%DB%8C-%DA%AF%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%DB%8C\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Hamdeli reported<\/a> warnings from parliamentarian Hossein Samsami that changes to import financing could trigger another wave of price increases. His projected increases of 40\u201350% remain forecasts, not established outcomes.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Iran\u2019s regime, militarily degraded after <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/IranWar%E2%80%8C?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#IranWar\u200c<\/a> and confronting economic collapse, drought and a nationwide internet blackout, is relying almost entirely on psychological warfare and <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/hashtag\/propaganda?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#propaganda<\/a> to project strength and buy time, <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/shahriarkia?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">@shahriarkia<\/a> writes.<a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ozRu1iOhnp\">https:\/\/t.co\/ozRu1iOhnp<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/iran_policy\/status\/2055361346540081188?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 15, 2026<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<h2 style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Cost of Economic Survival<\/h2>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The most serious danger is not necessarily an <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncr-iran.org\/en\/news\/economy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">immediate collapse<\/a>. It is the progressive deterioration of Iran&#8217;s productive foundations.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Factories operating below capacity, companies accumulating debt, hospitals postponing equipment replacement and businesses struggling to replenish inventories are all warning signs.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The available evidence does not yet prove that Iran&#8217;s total capital stock is shrinking. But it demonstrates mounting obstacles to maintaining and renewing productive assets.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">That distinction makes the regime&#8217;s predicament particularly serious.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Even if the blockade ends, restoring foreign trade alone will not eliminate accumulated debts, replace deteriorating equipment or reverse years of underinvestment.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The clerical dictatorship faces a crisis far deeper than declining oil revenues. Decades of economic corruption, chronic mismanagement and misplaced priorities have hollowed out the country&#8217;s productive foundations while forcing ordinary Iranians to bear the cost. Ultimately, the regime must confront the consequences of its own policies: a population whose livelihoods, opportunities and economic security have been systematically eroded. The greatest challenge to its survival may come not from external pressure, but from the very people who have paid the price for its failures.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Three-minute read Iran&rsquo;s economic crisis is no longer merely a matter of inflation, sanctions or declining oil revenue. New evidence from Iranian government decisions, corporate financial statements and domestic newspapers points to a more damaging development: the country is increasingly struggling to replenish the resources required to keep its economy functioning. The latest warning comes [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":338342,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[269],"class_list":["post-349110","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-economy","tag-iran-economy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Iran\u2019s Economy Is Running Out of Its Future - NCRI<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Three-minute read Iran&#039;s economic crisis is no longer merely a matter of inflation, sanctions or declining oil revenue. 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