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The Times(London) May 11, 2010Deborah Haynes, Defence Editor<\/p>\n
The Times(London) May 11, 2010
Deborah Haynes, Defence Editor<\/p>\n
Iran is focused on improving a growing arsenal of ballistic missiles but needs at least four more years to be able to target London and more than a decade to threaten the East Coast of the United States, a leading think-tank said yesterday. <\/p>\n
The analysis by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) came after Tehran said that it had test-fired for the first time a series of short-range Fajr (Dawn) missiles in the Gulf. <\/p>\n
“The missiles were fired from surface to sea and hit the target with great precision,” Kiomars Haydari, deputy chief of the army ground forces, was quoted by a local news agency as saying. <\/p>\n
The Fajr-5 missile is 6.6 metres (22ft) long, with a range of 75km (47 miles). <\/p>\n
The IISS said that Iran is also working to develop much longer-range weapons and noted that all of the country’s ballistic missiles are inherently capable of carrying nuclear bombs. <\/p>\n
“In tandem with efforts to expand its nuclear capabilities, the Islamic Republic of Iran is making robust strides in developing ballistic missiles,” the IISS said in its report: Iran’s Ballistic Missile Capabilities. “The two programmes appear to be connected, with the aim of giving Iran the capability to deliver nuclear warheads well beyond its borders.” <\/p>\n
The think-tank noted, however, that Tehran denies any interest in nuclear weapons and insists that its missiles are defensive in nature. <\/p>\n
The report will add to the debate on Iranian military intentions, with the US pushing for another round of sanctions against the country, which it believes is pursuing a covert programme to develop nuclear bombs. <\/p>\n
Fuelling such suspicion, the IISS said that Iran is developing a medium-range, solid-propellent missile called Sajjil-2, which is potentially capable of delivering a 750kg (1,650lb) warhead to a range of about 2,200km. <\/p>\n
“Iran is the only country to have developed a missile of this reach without first having developed nuclear weapons,” Dr John Chipman, the director general and chief executive of IISS, told a press conference. <\/p>\n
The London-based think-tank believes that Iran wants to develop more accurate medium-range missiles before turning its attention to intercontinental weapons, which could strike the US. It will need to conduct at least a dozen test flights to achieve a reasonable measure of accuracy. <\/p>\n
“Therefore, Iran is not likely to field a liquid-fuelled missile capable of targeting western Europe before 2014 or 2015,” the report found. <\/p>\n
The institute said: “A notional Iranian ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile), based on No-dong and Scud technologies, is more than a decade away.” <\/p>\n
Already coming into range is any country within a 1,600km radius, with Israel and Turkey at Iran’s very limits, although accuracy remains a problem. <\/p>\n
“The confident destruction of a single fixed-point military target, for example, would require Iran to allocate a very significant percentage, if not all, of its missile inventory to one specific mission,” the IISS said. <\/p>\n
It noted that Iranian engineers have become less dependent on foreign help. The country was even able to put a small satellite into low-Earth orbit in 2008, adding to its potential military capabilities. <\/p>\n
“Iran’s accomplishments over the past five to seven years are impressive,” the IISS said. <\/p>\n
Tehran has been more active and successful in its ballistic missile development than even North Korea, according to the IISS. <\/p>\n
However, the country still remains reliant on certain elements of foreign technology. This is becoming harder to access because Russia and Ukraine — once the primary sources of the liquid-propellant engines used in missiles — are adhering more closely to international guidelines on missile technology control, according to the think-tank. <\/p>\n