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After months of speculation and diplomatic maneuvers, the Iranian regime’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, delivered his final verdict on negotiations with the United States. In a speech marking the anniversary of the 1979 revolution, Khamenei dismissed talks with the U.S. as “neither wise, nor rational, nor honorable.” His statement came shortly after the Trump administration reinforced its “maximum pressure” policy, signaling that Washington remains committed to economic and diplomatic coercion should Tehran remain hellbent on its malign strategy.
While the clerical regime faces severe economic, social, and political crises at home and abroad, Khamenei, who has unparalleled access to security reports and intelligence briefings, remains adamantly opposed to negotiations. Many in the West assume that Tehran’s mounting problems would push Khamenei toward negotiations. However, paradoxically, it is precisely these crises that make him incapable of engaging in talks or making concessions.
The Economic Abyss
Iran’s regime has been grappling with severe socio-economic challenges for years. Inflation has consistently remained above 50%, with the rial plummeting to an all-time low of 920,000 against the dollar following Khamenei’s recent statements. Unemployment has soared past 20%.
These enduring economic hardships have repeatedly led to social unrest, as seen in the December 2017 and November 2019 protests triggered by food or fuel price hikes. The regime’s inability to address these systemic issues continues to erode its domestic stability.
The Real Goal of #Iran’s Negotiations: Surviving, Not Settling https://t.co/TaSPUkGx6K
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 29, 2025
However, Khamenei understands that any retreat from his aggressive policies, including curbing missile programs or reducing regional interventions, would alienate his base—the security and paramilitary forces that uphold the regime. Concessions would signal weakness, leading to fractures within the establishment and emboldening opposition forces inside and outside Iran.
Why Negotiation Is Not an Option
Western policymakers often fail to grasp the fragility of Iran’s ruling structure. Much like the final years of the Shah’s regime, today’s theocracy is brittle and vulnerable. Khamenei is acutely aware that sitting at the negotiating table with the U.S. is not merely a diplomatic maneuver—it is a gamble he cannot afford to take. Unlike previous negotiations, where Iran played for time while bolstering its nuclear and military capabilities, the current reality offers no such flexibility.
Hosseini Shariatmadari, editor-in-chief of the newspaper Kayhan, confirmed this stance in a televised discussion on February 8: “The U.S. has already set the ceiling for negotiations. In reality, the outcome is predetermined; they are not inviting us to negotiate but to surrender.” Similarly, IRGC-affiliated strategist Saadollah Zarei wrote in Kayhan on February 9 that engaging in negotiations with the U.S. under these terms would lead to a “never-ending cycle of concessions, without securing even the smallest gains.”
#Iran’s Leadership Unites Behind #Khamenei’s Hardline Stance Against U.S. Negotiationshttps://t.co/cNKeSgWHql
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) February 9, 2025
Another Iran Revolution
Khamenei’s resistance to negotiation is not a sign of confidence—it is a reflection of his regime’s declining options. He faces a nation on the brink of economic collapse, a disillusioned and impoverished population, and growing discontent even within his own ranks. However, in his calculation, conceding to U.S. demands would not alleviate these problems; it would accelerate the collapse of his rule.
Tomorrow marks 46 years since the 1979 revolution—an upheaval that swept away a monarchy many believed unshakable. The Shah’s empire, built on repression and fear, collapsed under the weight of its own contradictions. Today, Iran’s theocracy stands on similarly fragile ground, clinging to power through brutality and deception, yet unable to escape the fate of regimes that lose their legitimacy. The ghosts of history whisper a familiar warning: no tyranny endures forever.
Instead of hoping for concessions from Tehran, the international community must embrace the reality that meaningful change will not come from within the system but from its demise. Just as the revolution of 1979 reshaped Iran and the region, the inevitable fall of the current regime will usher in a new chapter. The world must not be caught off guard this time. It must stand prepared—not to salvage a collapsing dictatorship, but to support the dawn of a new era in Iran.