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On August 21, 2024, three months after the fatal helicopter crash that killed the Iranian regime’s president Ebrahim Raisi on May 19, conflicting reports about the cause of the crash emerged, revealing a regime in disarray and struggling to maintain a coherent narrative. The IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency released a report claiming that the crash was due to the helicopter being overloaded and encountering bad weather. This report was almost immediately contradicted by the General Staff of the Armed Forces, which dismissed the Fars report as “invalid and discredited,” denying the claims of overloading and adverse weather conditions as the primary causes of the crash.
The incident itself occurred on May 19, when Raisi, alongside eight other officials, including Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, died after their helicopter crashed in the forests of Varzaqan in East Azerbaijan Province. While the regime initially delayed announcing the deaths for 18 hours, the eventual confirmation did little to quell the growing rumors and skepticism among the Iranian populace. Many Iranians, long oppressed under Raisi’s rule—who was infamously known as the “Butcher of Tehran” for his role in the mass executions of political prisoners in the 1980s—reacted with a sense of relief and even joy, viewing his death as a long-awaited setback against a brutal and oppressive regime.
In the 16 hours it took the clerical regime in #Iran to announce #Raisi's disappearance and finally declare his death, three decades of military boasting and bravado were put in jeopardy. pic.twitter.com/X4McgbbFCm
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) May 28, 2024
Raisi’s death delivered a significant strategic blow to the clerical regime, particularly to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, who had relied on Raisi to help consolidate power amid escalating domestic unrest and increasing international isolation. Raisi was not just a figurehead but a crucial player in Khamenei’s plans to cement his control and potentially groom a successor of his choosing. His untimely death has created a vacuum at the highest levels of government, reigniting factional infighting as various groups jostle for influence over the executive branch.
Faced with this unexpected power struggle, Khamenei was forced into damage control mode, calling for early presidential elections in a bid to restore a semblance of stability. However, these elections, widely viewed as a sham, resulted in a nationwide boycott, exposing the regime’s growing illegitimacy. Despite Khamenei’s efforts to install a loyalist government, the outcome left him with a leadership that, while still under his significant influence, was not entirely of his own choosing.
Given the socio-political ramifications of Raisi’s death, the circumstances surrounding the crash are of critical importance and sensitivity. The regime’s reluctance to provide a definitive explanation has only fueled further speculation and distrust. Over the past months, Iranian officials have alternated between various explanations, citing mechanical failure, human error, and environmental factors, none of which have been conclusively proven or universally accepted. This persistent ambiguity highlights a deeper governance crisis in Iran, where internal power struggles take precedence over transparency and accountability.
#Raisi’s Death Cripples Khamenei’s Decade-Long Project to Maintain Rule over #Iran https://t.co/ibcs5oMwbB
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) May 22, 2024
The regime now faces a stark dilemma: revealing the truth could expose its incompetence or even suggest scenarios such as internal sabotage or foreign intervention, potentially emboldening public dissent and further demoralizing its security forces. On the other hand, continuing to obscure the facts only serves to further erode the regime’s credibility and authority.
The current situation mirrors the regime’s mishandling of the downing of Ukrainian passenger plane PS752 in January 2020, which was shot down by the IRGC, killing all 176 passengers on board. Initially, the Iranian government vehemently denied any involvement, attributing the crash to a technical malfunction. It wasn’t until days later, under mounting international pressure and undeniable evidence, that Tehran finally admitted the IRGC had “mistakenly” fired two missiles at the civilian aircraft. This admission came after several days of lies and cover-ups, which sparked widespread outrage and led to massive protests across the nation. The public’s anger was fueled by the regime’s lack of accountability and transparency, further exposing the government’s disregard for human life and its propensity for deceit. This historical pattern of deception and obfuscation, now seen again with Raisi’s helicopter crash, reveals a regime far more fragile and weakened than the one from 2020.