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As tensions grow both domestically and internationally, the Iranian regime finds itself increasingly divided over how to respond to mounting pressure. Senior officials’ remarks, whether made at Friday prayers or through state media, reveal deepening fractures within the ruling establishment. Now, the looming fear of defections from within its own ranks adds to the regime’s instability.
Widening Divisions Amid Crises
While Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), publicly dismissed concerns of war on April 5, his rhetoric appeared aimed more at reassuring regime loyalists than addressing strategic realities. “We are not worried about war at all. We will not start a war, but we are ready for any war,” Salami stated, adding that America’s defenses are less robust than those of Israel.
But beneath this outward bravado lies panic and dissent. Iran’s escalating crises—economic collapse, regional isolation, and popular discontent—have given rise to increasingly public disagreements among state officials. During Friday prayers in Qom, Alireza Arafi warned against negotiations with the United States, framing the idea as a betrayal of national dignity. He cited past diplomatic failures, including the 1953 coup and the JCPOA, as proof that the West seeks only to undermine Iran’s sovereignty.
Intensified Factional Fighting Within #Iran's Clerical Regime Amidst Criseshttps://t.co/rZfrRCgW7v
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) April 6, 2025
In Tehran, Heshmatollah Ghanbari, a state-affiliated scholar, echoed these sentiments but with sharper condemnation of those within the regime itself who advocate for talks. “There have always been cowardly factions in the country. Some people think they can negotiate with someone like Trump and protect Iran’s interests. This is a misguided and strategically flawed calculation,” Ghanbari declared.
In Ilam, Allahnour Karimitabar, another Friday prayer leader, attempted to rally the regime’s demoralized forces by declaring, “Do not be afraid, do not be intimidated!”—a message seemingly directed at increasingly disillusioned IRGC and Basij forces who are terrified by the prospect of U.S. military action and popular uprisings. His assertion that Trump would never enter a war with Iran due to economic calculations was contradicted by his previous insults branding Trump as a madman and a gambler.
Competing Narratives Within the Regime
Regime clerics are increasingly framing the country’s economic collapse as an act of external sabotage. In Zanjan, Mostafa Hosseini insisted that Iran is already engaged in a prolonged war, primarily economic, and that “the true battlefront lies in countering sanctions and economic sabotage.” His remarks suggest an effort to redirect blame for Iran’s collapsing economy away from domestic mismanagement and corruption.
Fierce Infighting in #Iran’s Clerical Regime Over Hijab Law and Political Power Struggleshttps://t.co/16WRvW0UFn
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) March 14, 2025
However, the crisis is not confined to economic hardship. The regime’s own media reflects growing desperation and division. The Kayhan newspaper, serving as Khamenei’s mouthpiece, dismissed the possibility of successful negotiations with the United States, framing talks as a deceptive trap.
Other regime-affiliated outlets have admitted to escalating divisions. The IRGC’s own daily, Javan, conceded that direct negotiations with the United States are unlikely to yield meaningful results, acknowledging that Trump’s calls for talks are little more than attempts to pressure Tehran into submission.
Hamshahri, another state-controlled publication, issued a scathing rebuke to those advocating negotiations, stating: “We must show the terrified faction inclined toward negotiation that speaking of suicide to escape death is neither intelligent, nor honorable, nor rational, and it has nothing to do with one’s political or religious inclination.”
Meanwhile, Arman-e-Melli hinted at behind-the-scenes talks mediated by third parties, reflecting Tehran’s internal indecision and disunity.
#Iran’s Ruling Factions Descend into Confusion and Infighting Amid Mounting Criseshttps://t.co/Ph4mFLOHK4
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) March 12, 2025
Fear and Fractures
Beyond rhetorical attacks, deeper fractures are emerging as various factions attempt to consolidate their power. Former parliamentarian Jalal Mirzaei admitted that “Constant talk of possible war and conflict only frightens domestic investors. It drives people to hoard gold and foreign currency, ultimately consuming the economy from within.”
Now, the regime faces the added fear of defections from within its own ranks. Mohammad Manan-Raisi, a member of the Iranian parliament from Qom, warned on April 2 that if the controversial Hijab law is not enforced, the “hard core” of the regime will become inactive and refuse to defend the system.
In response, the regime-affiliated website Asre-Iran wrote: “If your budget is cut, if your qualifications for parliament are not approved, if you are seriously held accountable in your position, if one day you see that to preserve the state you must pay instead of receiving favors, then you so-called firebrand revolutionaries will either turn your swords against this very state or vanish as if you never existed.”
#Iran's Regime Infighting Escalates as Rival Factions Clash Over Power, Corruption, and Policy Failureshttps://t.co/tlsz80vGAA
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) March 8, 2025
Ticking Clock
The Iranian regime’s internal rifts are increasingly laid bare as foreign and domestic pressures converge. While some officials, like Salami, attempt to project strength and defiance, others openly acknowledge the regime’s inability to address the escalating economic and political crises. The latest warnings of defection from regime loyalists only underline the depth of the crisis.
The ongoing infighting and contradictory messages from various factions reveal that the regime is not merely suffering from external pressure; it is disintegrating from within. As regime insiders warn of internal infighting, it becomes increasingly clear that Tehran’s greatest threat comes not from abroad but from within its own fractured establishment.