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The clerical dictatorship ruling Iran, besieged by internal unrest, regional setbacks, and international isolation, has escalated its crackdown on society, using the looming enforcement of the mandatory “Hijab and Chastity” law as a weapon to reassert control. However, the law has also exposed a fierce internal feud among regime factions, driven not by concern for the public but by competing views on how best to preserve the regime.
In light of the recent regime change in Syria—a seismic shift that has shaken Tehran—both extremists and revisionists within the regime are sounding alarms about the path forward. The self-proclaimed “principlists,” led by the regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, argue that retreating from enforcement will embolden the Iranian people and lead to the regime’s collapse. Meanwhile, the self-proclaimed “reformists” warn that implementing the law in its entirety will only amplify public anger and hasten the regime’s downfall.
Extremists Push for Immediate Enforcement
On December 6, Ahmad Alamolhoda, Khamenei’s representative in Mashhad, lambasted the regime’s president Masoud Pezeshkian for hesitating to implement the hijab law. “You are responsible for enforcing this law; ambiguity is no excuse,” he declared. “A president cannot undermine a law passed by Parliament. This is not a matter of preference—it is an Islamic obligation.”
Mohammad Mokhtari, the Friday prayer leader of Birjand, echoed these sentiments on December 6, framing the hijab law as a test of loyalty to the regime’s survival. “This law is not negotiable. Any wavering will be a betrayal of the principles upon which this system stands,” he said, adding, “Failure to enforce it will bring about chaos and embolden enemies.”
Why #Syria’s Regime Change Shakes #Tehran to Its Corehttps://t.co/ADsRiQDtSW
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) December 11, 2024
On December 10, the Secretary of the Cultural Commission in Parliament dismissed rumors of delays, emphasizing, “This is a Quranic and divine law. It must be implemented, and there is no room for compromise.”
Revisionists Warn of Backlash
On the other side, the regime’s revisionists have voiced concerns about the law’s destabilizing consequences. Ali Rabiei, an advisor to Pezeshkian, issued a stark warning on December 8: “For the love of God, think about the consequences of your actions.” His plea to the rival faction underscored fears that rigid enforcement would ignite uncontrollable public anger.
State-affiliated journalist Ahmad Zaidabadi weighed in with a scathing critique in Etemad on December 10, describing the hijab law as “a tool of totalitarian control” that will “amplify public outrage.” Zaidabadi warned that the law’s implementation would lead to one of two outcomes: either it will fail due to public resistance, damaging the regime’s credibility, or it will be enforced through brute force, plunging the country into deeper instability.
#Iranian Regime Fears Collapse of #Syria and Regional Setbackshttps://t.co/NyZA7MWt15
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) December 7, 2024
Syria’s Shadow Looms Large
The hijab law is being debated under the shadow of Syria’s recent regime change, which has sent shockwaves through Tehran. On December 10, Etemad published a column that encapsulated the regime’s existential fear: “On the very day that Iran’s strategic ally has fallen, some officials are obsessed with enforcing a divisive hijab law, ignoring existential threats closer than a vein to our necks.”
The divisions are stark, but both factions share a common fear: that the regime’s survival is at stake. The extremists believe in doubling down, asserting that a show of strength is the only way to deter further dissent. The revisionists, however, argue that enforcing the hijab law could ignite the kind of mass protests that toppled Assad.
A Desperate Gamble
As December 23—the potential enforcement date—approaches, the hijab law has become a symbol of the regime’s desperation and division. It is not a question of governance or ideology but of survival. Whether the law is enforced or delayed, it reveals a regime teetering on the edge, caught between fears of rebellion and collapse.
The hijab law is not just a policy; it is a litmus test for the regime’s ability to maintain its grip on power. But as public anger grows and the shadow of Syria’s revolution looms, both factions may find that their strategies lead to the same outcome: a regime running out of time and options.
