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In the aftermath of recent military conflict, top officials in Tehran are not projecting confidence, but revealing a deep-seated fear of their own citizens. Public statements from regime president Masoud Pezeshkian’s inner circle expose a leadership haunted by the prospect of popular uprising, scrambling to create a narrative of “infiltration” to explain its security failures while unleashing a brutal internal crackdown.
Pezeshkian himself admitted on July 15, 2025, that the primary threat during the conflict was internal. He stated that the “enemy’s plan” was for “dissatisfied people” to “take to the streets” and trigger the “collapse of the system.” This admission frames the regime’s primary concern not as an external military threat, but as a domestic population on the brink of revolt.
A Regime Haunted by Past Uprisings
This fear of a popular overthrow is a recurring theme among the regime’s top figures. Ali Rabiee, a former deputy intelligence minister and now an advisor to Pezeshkian, confessed on July 15 that the ultimate goal of the recent war was the “collapse of the system.” He voiced a deep anxiety about the consequences, stating, “Any kind of overthrow after a war has not made any society happy… We don’t know what will happen to Iran at all!”
Former Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, in a remarkably candid statement on July 13, 2025, explicitly linked the regime’s current insecurity to past uprisings and the organized opposition. He recalled the nationwide protests that began in Mashhad in late 2017, noting that John Bolton’s subsequent speech at the Iranian Resistance’s gathering in Paris convinced the Trump administration that the regime was “on the verge of collapse,” leading directly to the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear deal.
#Iranian Officials Warn of “Libya Scenario” Amid Deepening Fear of Uprising and Escalating Crackdownshttps://t.co/vLWWYwIlap
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 1, 2025
“Infiltration”: A Pretext for a Brutal Purge
Unable to explain devastating security breaches, including the targeting of its military commanders, the regime has manufactured a scapegoat: a vast internal “infiltration organization.” Zarif claimed on July 14 that the problem has grown beyond individual spies, warning, “Infiltration has now become an organization… it has people, but it also has ideas and suggestions.” He directly attributed the leaks of commanders’ locations to this supposed network.
This narrative is already being used to justify a wave of repression. Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib confirmed to a closed session of Parliament that his forces had struck “spies and counter-revolutionary groups” during the conflict. Publicly, Khatib announced the execution of citizens for “espionage” and threatened that other detainees “will get what they deserve.” According to reports, hundreds of citizens have been arrested on such charges since the war, with human rights groups expressing grave concern for their fate. This brutal crackdown is accompanied by measures like internet shutdowns, which Pezeshkian’s spokesperson defended on July 15 as a necessary choice between “the people’s security and the freedom to publish news.”
#Iranian Officials Voice Deep Fear Over Growing Social Tensions and Possibility of Uprisinghttps://t.co/NYjgVFrYGf
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) April 20, 2025
The Looming Threat of International Sanctions
Compounding this internal paranoia is the growing external pressure of international sanctions. On July 14, former regime diplomat Kourosh Ahmadi warned that the triggering of the UN Security Council’s “snapback mechanism” would create an “unfavorable situation for the country.” He noted this would not only restore all previous UN sanctions but would also pave the way for European countries to reimpose their own. Crucially, Ahmadi pointed out that revived UN resolutions would make the suspension of uranium enrichment mandatory and that the snapback could be triggered “even sooner” than the October deadline due to Tehran’s continued lack of cooperation with the IAEA.
The regime’s contradictory statements—claiming military deterrence while admitting terror of its own people—reveal not strength, but profound fragility. The panicked hunt for an “infiltration network” is a desperate attempt to deflect blame for its own incompetence and justify a brutal purge of dissent. Squeezed by international sanctions and haunted by the memory of popular protests, Tehran’s leadership is on the defensive. The international community should interpret these signals not as a reason for appeasement, but as clear evidence of a leadership that has lost its legitimacy and fears its own people above all else.