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The Iranian regime is grappling with an unprecedented confluence of internal unrest, economic collapse, and regional defeats, as revealed in a series of recent statements and reports. These accounts paint a dire picture of a system increasingly fearful of its future and unable to manage its mounting crises.
Loss of Regional Influence
Hossein Marashi, Secretary-General of the Kargozaran Party, highlighted the regime’s diminishing regional clout in a startling admission: “We no longer have Lebanon, Syria, or Iraq. Even the Houthis are under tremendous pressure, and I don’t think we can count on them anymore.” Comparing the current state of the regime to its weakened position after the fall of Faw in 1987, Marashi warned of a new phase of vulnerability.
Faw in 1987 refers to Iraq’s recapture of the Faw Peninsula during the Iran-Iraq War. The event marked a pivotal moment, reversing the Iranian regime’s gains and dealing a blow to its strategic ambitions.
#Khamenei’s Speech Reflects Iranian Regime’s Morale Crisis After Strategic Loss in #Syriahttps://t.co/9EwLTl0Ydv
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 1, 2025
Similarly, Mahmoud Rajabi, a member of the Society of Seminary Teachers in Qom, expressed grave concerns over the loss of Syria: “If our military power diminishes, the collapse of the regime, similar to Syria, will follow.” He criticized those advocating for de-escalation, asserting that “those who talk of a world without missiles are either foreign agents or ignorant fools misled by the enemy.”
Economic and Social Collapse
On the economic front, regime insider Mohammad-Kazem Anbarlouee lamented: “The country is plagued by energy shortages, rampant inflation, unemployment, and mismanagement. The economic system is riddled with corruption and inefficiency.” He blamed both internal incompetence and external adversaries for the ongoing crisis. His assessment underscores the disconnect between the regime’s claims of resource abundance and its failure to meet the basic needs of its population.
Adding to the bleak picture, regime analyst Mohammad-Ali Janatkhah acknowledged widespread public despair: “Many people lack motivation to return home at night. Each person has become a ticking time bomb, ready to explode at any moment.” He also criticized both factions who claim to be “reformists” and “principlists”, stating, “Neither side offers a solution; the game is over for them.”
#Iranian Regime Faces Mounting Economic Crisis as Lawmakers and #Media Sound Alarmhttps://t.co/Y8ckE5PgfK
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) November 27, 2024
Cracks Within the Security Apparatus
Concerns over declining morale within the regime’s security forces have also surfaced. In a speech, Commander of the State Security Forces Ahmad-Reza Radan attempted to rally support: “Soldiers of the Supreme Leader vow to confront disruptors decisively and create a secure environment.” However, his emphasis on unity and external threats betrays the regime’s growing anxiety about internal dissent. The recent staging of two major “security-ensuring” military drills further underscores this unease.
Meanwhile, an editorial in the state-run Kayhan newspaper warned of “enemy infiltration within political, cultural, and economic institutions.” The piece urged the Intelligence Ministry and the IRGC Intelligence Organization to intensify surveillance of government officials, signaling the regime’s deepening mistrust even within its ranks.
A Regime on Borrowed Time
The regime’s fear is compounded by public sentiment. Janatkhah captured the mood succinctly: “Everyone is waiting for something to happen. They don’t know what, but they are waiting for a spark to act.” This widespread anticipation of change, coupled with ongoing protests and economic despair, poses a significant challenge to the regime’s survival.
With its regional influence waning, its economy in freefall, and its security apparatus under strain, the Iranian regime finds itself at its weakest point in decades. These admissions from regime insiders and loyalists reveal a state deeply aware of its vulnerabilities but incapable of reversing its trajectory. As Janatkhah starkly put it, “The historical mistakes we have repeated have cost us dearly. The outcome is unclear, but the system is unraveling.”