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In the wake of Donald Trump’s election victory, concerns and anxieties are palpable within Iran’s political landscape. The regime is bracing for potential repercussions on its economy and geopolitical stance as Tehran’s stock market reels and the national currency tumbles. While some Iranian officials publicly downplay the election’s relevance to Iran, reactions in state media and statements from various officials reveal deep-seated concerns.
The state-run Etemad Online reflected shock, running the headline, “Tehran’s Stock Market Shocked by Trump’s Victory.” However, Fatemeh Mohajerani, spokesperson for Massoud Pezeshkian’s government, dismissed direct impacts from the U.S. election, stating, “The election of the U.S. president does not directly affect us. The overall policies of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran remain fixed. Preparations were made long ago, and it doesn’t matter who the U.S. president is.” She added, “Sanctions have largely strengthened our domestic capabilities, and the economy is robust enough to handle this.”
Spokesman of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Esmail Baqai voiced a cautious tone, remarking, “For Iran, what matters is the actions of the U.S. administration.” Yet Tehran’s mayor, Alireza Zakani, maintained a defiant tone, declaring, “For the resistance, it doesn’t matter who becomes U.S. president, as God’s will to support resistance is stronger.”
#Iran News in Brief
Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the Aerospace commander of the #IRGCterrorists threatened to kill several #American officials, including former U.S. President Donald Trump, Secretary Mike Pompeo and General McKenzie to avenge Qassem Soleimani.https://t.co/EUfvPSUJ6W pic.twitter.com/6H5sjbGVRk— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) February 28, 2023
The state-run Asr Iran responded to dismissals of Trump’s election win with skepticism, publishing an article titled “Why Trump is More Dangerous than Four Years Ago?” The piece chided officials for downplaying the event, comparing their stance to “someone saying floods and rain are the same.” It warned of Trump’s lasting grudge, emphasizing that Trump’s previous actions toward Iran – exiting the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), assassinating Qassem Soleimani, and reducing Iran’s oil exports by two-thirds – could intensify.
Former diplomat Ali Majedi dismissed the Foreign Ministry’s stance on the election’s insignificance, saying, “The events in the region have all been detrimental to us.” Former Head of the regime’s parliamentary National Security and Foreign Affairs Commission Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh echoed this view, citing Trump’s JCPOA exit as proof of the substantial impact U.S. elections can have on Iran’s foreign policy. He argued, “U.S. election outcomes have demonstrated that the American administration can directly affect Iran’s international relations.”
On November 6, economic analyst Vahid Shaqaqi Shahri underlined Trump’s focus on sanctions, warning, “Trump’s sanctions have a significant impact, particularly on Iran’s oil sector. If he wins, the dollar’s value in Iran could increase by roughly 10%.” Shaqaqi noted that while oil exports rebounded somewhat after Trump’s departure, they had fallen to less than 500,000 barrels per day under his administration, placing immense pressure on Iran’s economy.
BREAKING: Iran tried to influence election by sending stolen material from Trump campaign to Biden’s camp, FBI says https://t.co/zoKJdi0bnZ
— Fox News (@FoxNews) September 18, 2024
The economic response to Trump’s win was swift. Tehran’s stock index dropped by over 7,000 points, a 0.35% decline, marking a third consecutive day of losses. The all-share index also fell by over 3,000 points, a 0.49% drop. The Iranian rial reached record lows, with the U.S. dollar hitting 70,300 tomans (one toman is 10 rials) in the free market, slightly stabilizing but still at 69,600 – a 700-toman increase from the previous day. Gold prices surged as well, with the price per piece of the Emami gold coin climbing by 480,000 tomans to 52,750,000 tomans, and 18-karat gold reaching 4,714,000 tomans per gram.
The government-aligned newspaper Setareh Sobh on November 6 published an article titled “The Unwritten Alliance,” discussing regional repercussions of Trump’s election victory and warning of a “possible war between Iran, Israel, and the U.S.” The article noted that “some Arab countries that outwardly aligned with Iran are now stepping back from the Iran-U.S. conflict and distancing themselves from Tehran’s proxy forces. Iraq has declared neutrality, and Lebanon’s Economy Minister has called for Hezbollah’s disarmament.”
In another interview with Setareh Sobh, state-affiliated analyst Ali Bigdeli lamented the lost opportunity of Biden’s four-year term, writing, “Iran had good opportunities in recent years… We should have made progress during the Democrats’ tenure. The problem is not with the U.S., but rather an unresolved internal crisis. How did a four-year Democratic administration in the White House fail to benefit Iran? No one can claim that U.S. elections don’t matter to Iran.”
#Khamenei’s Post-Strike Address Exposes Fears of Regional Setbacks and Regime Insecurityhttps://t.co/CNStufiQYC
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 28, 2024
Hesamoddin Ashena, a former advisor to ex-president Hassan Rouhani, reacted to Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory on social media, writing: “Not only is Trump’s America in 2024 fundamentally different from Trump’s America in 2016, but global and regional dynamics have also changed entirely. Is the Islamic Republic of Iran the only one that hasn’t changed?”
The state-affiliated analyst Mehdi Mottaharnia warned of a “miniature war” between Iran and Israel, stating that Trump is likely to intensify preemptive and targeted actions against Tehran.
Despite claims of resilience, the US election outcome has already dealt a blow to the Iranian regime’s fragile economy, highlighting deep-seated fears within Tehran over what another Trump presidency might bring.
