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The Iranian regime is ensnared in a crisis of legitimacy, caught between a paralyzing fear of domestic rebellion and the looming threat of foreign pressure. While the question of whether to engage in direct or indirect talks with the United States continues to plague Tehran’s highest circles, officials are struggling to justify their positions to their own disillusioned base. The mere suggestion of compromise has stirred anger, suspicion, and resentment among its loyalists, revealing a crisis of confidence that threatens to shatter the regime from within.
A Fractured Message from the Pulpit
In recent Friday prayers, representatives of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei sought to reassure the regime’s rapidly demoralizing forces through feverish rhetoric. But their attempts to rally the troops have only exposed a deeper sense of insecurity and decay.
Hassan Abedian, the Friday Prayer leader in Ardabil, delivered a speech on April 4, 2025, riddled with contradictions and admissions of fear. His words revealed a growing desperation among officials trying to keep their base from crumbling.
“We are more worried about the bullets that hit our minds than the bombs that fall on our heads. Now, they do not shoot bullets at our hearts, but rather at our minds,” Abedian admitted. His language reflected the crumbling ideological cohesion of the regime.
The Real Goal of #Iran’s Negotiations: Surviving, Not Settling https://t.co/TaSPUkGx6K
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“If American destroyers move or bombers arrive, it’s very unlikely to be a direct attack. These are merely tools to bombard our minds and take away our dignity.”
Abedian’s most revealing comment: “If they force us to negotiate, it will be under the threat of death. And if we negotiate but refuse their demands, they will still threaten us with death.”
Desperate Mobilization
Ahmadreza Radan, commander of the regime’s State Security Forces, boasted in a televised interview about deploying 250,000 security personnel during the Nowruz holiday. The staggering scale of the operation was meant to signal control, but only underscored the regime’s panic.
“From the borders to the cities, from the cities to the villages, and from the villages to the roads, we are determined to increase security. The goal is to make sure no criminals feel they have a safe space,” Radan said. His description of total lockdowns, border patrols, and constant surveillance shows a regime so terrified of unrest that it views even minor gatherings as existential threats.
Khamenei's #EidAlFitr Speech Reveals Fear of Popular Uprising Over Foreign Threatshttps://t.co/dODyuhYMCU
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Radan’s claim of ensuring “the safety of our dear citizens” is a thin cover for what he really means: protecting the regime’s own survival. His militarization of daily life is less about crime prevention and more about preemptively quashing dissent.
Infighting and Fear of Defections
The regime’s existential fear is not only felt by domestic or foreign enemies but also by fractures within its own ranks. Mohammad Manan-Raisi, a member of parliament from Qom, recently warned that failing to enforce mandatory hijab laws would cause the regime’s “hard core” to lose motivation to defend the system.
A scathing response from the state-run Asr Iran laid bare the regime’s internal dread: “If you don’t receive your funding, if your qualifications to run for parliament are not approved, if you are held accountable for your positions, then the same revolutionary firebrands will either draw swords against this very system or vanish as if they never existed.”
Even officials loyal to the regime now fear mass defections and the collapse of their support base. When insiders warn that “hard core” elements could desert the system, it signals a far deeper crisis.
#Iran’s Regime Exposes Its Weakness Amid Internal Rifts on U.S. Negotiationshttps://t.co/NgwmaRnIqG
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 20, 2025
Facing the Worst of Both Worlds
The regime’s problem is not merely about deciding whether to negotiate or not. Khamenei understands that appeasing the U.S. by compromising on core issues like its nuclear program, missile arsenal, and regional proxies would risk breaking the spine of the regime’s power structure. Such concessions would devastate the regime’s credibility and cause massive defections from the hardcore that has been its only real base of support.
But defiance is just as perilous. As officials try to rally their own forces with slogans about “security” and “resistance,” it’s clear that their worst fear is not American bombers but another nationwide uprising. Their real worry is that the disillusioned masses, battered by years of poverty, injustice, and state violence, will seize upon the regime’s vulnerabilities and bring it down from within.
By any concessions to the U.S., the regime will lose its very survival mechanisms. The fear is that if it compromises, it will see mass defections and a complete collapse of the hard core that it desperately needs to defend against an overwhelmingly resentful society. As a result, Khamenei is paralyzed, unable to move forward or back, and his regime is left to rot, cornered and petrified by its own internal contradictions.