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Iranian Regime’s Posturing During Grossi’s Visit Aims to Avert IAEA Resolution Amid Snapback Mechanism Fears

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On November 13, 2024, Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), visited Tehran for critical discussions about Iran’s nuclear program amid rising international concerns. This trip, taking place at a delicate juncture, highlighted both the urgency of the nuclear issue and the increasing tension surrounding the regime’s lack of cooperation. “The international situation is becoming increasingly tense,” Grossi warned prior to his departure for Tehran. “The room for maneuver on nuclear issues is shrinking.”

While in Tehran, Grossi met with key figures, including Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, Atomic Energy Organization head Mohammad Eslami, and President Masoud Pezeshkian. Grossi described the visit as a “mission of utmost importance,” emphasizing the necessity of constructive dialogue to address unresolved questions about Iran’s nuclear activities.

The regime adopted a noticeably softer tone during Grossi’s visit, signaling an intention to cooperate. President Pezeshkian assured Grossi that Iran’s nuclear activities were strictly peaceful and aligned with a “clear fatwa” by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, which prohibits the development of nuclear weapons. “No one is allowed to deviate from this policy,” Pezeshkian asserted, while also expressing Tehran’s readiness to resolve ambiguities. Similarly, Eslami portrayed interactions with the IAEA as productive, stating, “Our contacts have always been constructive, and during this visit, we had good discussions.” Araghchi added that the regime hoped the discussions would help “reduce tensions” and pave the way for “reasonable solutions before the situation becomes more critical.”

Despite these overtures, Tehran’s sudden gestures of cooperation fit a familiar pattern of strategic posturing whenever an IAEA or UN resolution looms. Grossi’s visit came as European powers, particularly France, Germany, and the UK, were reportedly preparing a resolution at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting. According to diplomats cited by Reuters, the resolution would demand a “comprehensive report” on Iran’s nuclear activities, including unresolved issues such as uranium traces at undeclared sites and Tehran’s restriction of inspector access. “Our concerns about Iranian nuclear activity are well known,” said a European diplomat. “It feels like the natural point to ask the IAEA for a thorough report, which can then serve as the basis for addressing Iranian behavior.”

Iranian officials, however, sought to downplay the possibility of such a resolution, warning against what they described as provocative actions. Eslami threatened that “any resolution on Iran’s nuclear activities will be met with immediate reciprocal action,” adding that “Iran will not be influenced by pressure” and would continue its program in line with its national interests. This rhetoric reflects Tehran’s strategy of signaling defiance while simultaneously projecting an image of cooperation to avoid further international scrutiny.

Meanwhile, Vedant Patel, spokesperson for the U.S. State Department, responded to Tehran’s recent tone by emphasizing the need for substantive action. “The United States demands behavioral changes and concrete actions from the Iranian government,” Patel stated, reaffirming Washington’s commitment to ensuring that Iran never acquires nuclear weapons. Echoing this sentiment, Grossi had earlier pointed out the stakes, warning Iran to recognize that “the possibility of maneuvering is diminishing.”

While Grossi’s diplomacy focused on seeking immediate explanations for outstanding issues, his caution underscored the broader challenges of addressing Tehran’s longstanding pattern of deflection and delay. The Iranian regime’s efforts to deflect an IAEA resolution align with its broader goal of avoiding the activation of the snapback mechanism under UN Security Council Resolution 2231. This mechanism would automatically reinstate UN sanctions on the regime, reversing the relief provided under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

If the world truly seeks to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, it must resist falling into Tehran’s cycle of promises and delays. The appropriate response lies in activating the snapback mechanism and referring Iran’s nuclear dossier to the UN General Assembly under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter. Only through decisive and coordinated action can the international community address the regime’s nuclear ambitions and ensure regional and global security.