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In recent weeks, Iranian political authorities have been dispatched across the region, desperately attempting to prevent an Israeli military strike and potential U.S. backing through a mix of threats and pleas. Yet, as Tehran’s military and religious figures continue to escalate their aggressive rhetoric, the failure of Iran’s regional strategy is becoming evident. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the unprecedented stance taken by Lebanese officials, revealing the increasing weakness of the regime’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
A Diplomatic Misstep
The shift became glaringly clear after Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of the regime’s Parliament, gave an exclusive interview to Le Figaro on October 17. Ghalibaf suggested that Tehran was willing to negotiate with France to implement United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701. He claimed, “Iran is prepared to discuss specific measures to enforce Resolution 1701 with France, aiming for a ceasefire in southern Lebanon.”
UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006, aimed to end the Israel-Hezbollah conflict by mandating a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, and the deployment of the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers to secure southern Lebanon, while calling for the disarmament of non-state actors like Hezbollah.
#Iranian Regime Escalates #Nuclear Threats as Diplomatic Efforts and Calls for Islamic Unity Failhttps://t.co/5H710VjrCg
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 9, 2024
While Ghalibaf’s comments may have been intended to project a diplomatic image, they instead provoked a swift and forceful response from Lebanon. Acting Prime Minister Najib Mikati criticized Ghalibaf’s remarks as “overt interference” in Lebanese affairs, summoning Iran’s chargé d’affaires in Beirut. Mikati’s statement was direct: “We are astonished by this position, which amounts to unacceptable attempts to impose guardianship over Lebanon.” His comments highlight the diminishing patience of Lebanese leaders toward Tehran’s long-standing influence in their country, particularly through its proxy, Hezbollah. Lebanese political figure Samir Geagea echoed Mikati’s sentiments, asserting, “This stance reflects the views of every Lebanese.”
Despite Iran’s efforts to present a diplomatic front, the Lebanese response marks a significant setback, exposing the cracks in Tehran’s regional strategy. For years, the clerical regime has held the region hostage through its network of proxies, particularly in Lebanon, where it has used Hezbollah to eliminate political opponents such as Rafik Hariri. Standing against Tehran’s domination in Lebanon has long been dangerous, but recent developments indicate that the tide may be turning.
After harsh criticism from Lebanese officials, the regime’s parliament hastily retracted its earlier statements, with government-affiliated media claiming Ghalibaf’s comments on a Lebanon ceasefire were “misinterpreted” — a clear sign of the regime backpedaling under pressure.
#Iranian Regime’s FM Araghchi Scrambles to Bolster Proxy Forces Amid Military Setbackshttps://t.co/E7XjSmEJsF
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 6, 2024
A Struggle to Contain the Crisis
Meanwhile, the regime’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has embarked on a frantic regional tour, visiting eight countries since taking office, including Lebanon, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iraq, Oman, and most recently, Jordan and Egypt. His meetings in Amman on October 16 and in Cairo on October 17 marked rare high-level engagements, underscoring Tehran’s growing desperation. This flurry of diplomatic activity reveals Tehran’s real intent: to pressure regional governments into shielding it from potential Israeli strikes, as the regime faces mounting isolation and the looming threat of military retaliation. Particularly, Araqchi’s visit to Jordan, the first by an Iranian Foreign Minister since 2014, highlights the urgency Tehran feels in shoring up regional support amid a rapidly deteriorating situation.
Mixed Messaging
Despite Iran’s diplomatic maneuvers, the regime’s internal messaging has sent mixed signals, revealing a deeper struggle to manage the all-time low morale of its security forces and regional proxies. While Tehran’s diplomats push for de-escalation, hardline figures continue to project aggressive rhetoric, desperately trying to convince both domestic and allied forces that the regime remains strong and capable of navigating the crisis.
In a recent televised interview, Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri, a member of the Assembly of Experts, declared that conflict was “inevitable,” even stating that large-scale loss of life was a justified means to reach the regime’s ideological ends. “For the sake of reaching the divine goal, even if half the world’s population were to perish, it would be worth it,” he asserted, sparking outrage on social media.
Pezeshkian’s Desperate #Qatar Trip: Sham Diplomacy Amid #Iranian Regime’s Military Setbackshttps://t.co/aKgsvCfKZ2
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 7, 2024
Meanwhile, clerics like Hassan Ameli have continued their inflammatory speeches, with Ameli declaring that “Israel can martyr Yahya Sinwar a hundred times, but it will never achieve its goal.” These provocative statements, coupled with veiled threats about Iran’s nuclear ambitions, illustrate that Tehran’s hardline faction remains unwilling to show restraint, even as the regime desperately seeks diplomatic channels to avert further conflict.
Khamenei’s Gambit
Behind these mixed messages lies a regime struggling to maintain control, both domestically and regionally. Since last year, the clerical regime embarked on a dangerous gamble, believing it could leverage its regional proxies to extend its influence without sparking a broader conflict. Now, as regional tensions mount and the threat of military action looms, Tehran appears increasingly isolated. If the international community, determined to prevent a broader conflict, genuinely seeks lasting peace in the Middle East, it must confront the root cause of the crisis: Khamenei’s deep-seated fear of domestic uprisings, which has compelled him to pursue external distractions as a means of deflecting internal unrest.