Three-minute read
In the aftermath of the recent 12-day war, a question increasingly posed by international analysts—and echoed even within some state-affiliated Iranian media—is this: Does the current post-war period, even amid a fragile ceasefire, present an opportunity for the Iranian regime? The answer lies not in speculation, but in examining how the regime has responded to the most fundamental demands that the Iranian people have been voicing for over four decades.
Suppression in Place of Reform
Before the war erupted, the regime was already under intense pressure on multiple fronts. In the political arena, it was facing waves of protests sparked by social, cultural, and economic grievances—all of which inevitably transformed into calls for broader political change. From women’s rights to freedom of expression, Iranians have persistently challenged the regime’s repressive structures.
Economically, the people have endured years of worsening poverty, inflation, inequality, and a deepening livelihood crisis. Internationally, the regime’s warmongering and ideological adventurism—under the guise of building a so-called “Shiite Crescent”—have imposed a devastating cost on the nation, draining resources that should have been spent on public welfare.
Though the war temporarily muted the protests, the underlying discontent has not disappeared. It remains like embers beneath the surface, ready to ignite again with greater intensity than before. Iranians have come to see with new clarity how the regime’s militarism has overshadowed and sacrificed their most basic needs. This is not the first time: history recalls how the Iran-Iraq war was unnecessarily prolonged by the regime to consolidate power—at the cost of more than a trillion dollars in national resources.
Watch and judge why this insider is warning that the regime is destined for a collapse or #IranRevolution pic.twitter.com/Ysu6LbOhnz
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 1, 2024
War as a Tool of Repression
Rather than addressing these grievances, the regime is exploiting the aftermath of war as a cover to tighten its grip on power. It has deployed the Revolutionary Guards, Basij militia, and police forces en masse to the streets, aiming to instill fear and prevent any potential uprisings. Official media outlets have warned that future protests could be far more destructive than those in the past, a reflection of the regime’s own fears.
For years, the regime has squandered every opportunity for genuine reform. It has systematically closed all pathways to peaceful change, leaving no space for the people’s demands to be addressed. In response, the regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has opted for more repression, escalating the atmosphere of fear and intimidation. But this strategy is short-sighted and dangerous. It will ultimately backfire, triggering new and potentially more organized forms of resistance and unrest.
Watch and judge how this former #Iranian official (who happens to be the son of former regime's president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani) warns the state's leadership against #IranRevolution pic.twitter.com/dAS7ewKL8M
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) December 28, 2023
Regime in Crisis
Another goal of Khamenei’s current strategy is to contain deepening internal fractures within the regime itself. The war has left significant damage—not just materially, but psychologically. Many regime insiders have realized that despite years of propaganda, the regime has little control over its own airspace, let alone the region. The myth of the regime’s military supremacy has collapsed, shattering 46 years of self-aggrandizing narratives.
As a result, factional rivalries and power struggles are intensifying. A recent article by the state-run Jomhuri Eslami newspaper, dated July 1, criticized certain figures within the regime, calling for action against those who “pretend to be ideological leaders of the system” while undermining it from within. Such statements reveal a growing paranoia and loss of cohesion among the ruling elite.
Watch and judge how internal strife and #IranRevolution have frightened #Khamenei, leading him to plead with insiders not to boycott the upcoming parliamentary elections. pic.twitter.com/xVILYNMIpB
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) December 27, 2023
A Society on the Edge
Despite all these internal challenges, the regime’s greatest fear remains the people themselves. The explosive nature of Iranian society—now more aware and more resolute than ever—has become the regime’s most pressing concern. Khamenei is doing everything in his power to suppress this rising tide, mobilizing every security force available to prevent what he knows is inevitable.
The situation has become so unstable that many believe only a single spark is needed to ignite a nationwide explosion. On June 30, the state-run Didar News quoted Parvaneh Salahshouri, a former member of parliament, who starkly described the current state of the country: “Iran is currently like a dormant volcano. Any jolt, any unpleasant event, any spark could lead to an explosion.”
The message is clear: the post-war period is not an opportunity for the regime to rebuild or reform—it is a window of reckoning. The Iranian people are more conscious than ever of how their futures have been hijacked by a regime invested in war, repression, and ideological expansion. And while the regime clings to power through fear, it stands on an increasingly fragile foundation.
Sooner or later, the dormant volcano will erupt.