Three-minute read
The Iranian regime’s economic signals this week reveal a system frantically tightening its grip, caught between unavoidable fiscal collapse and the terror of mass unrest. On Saturday, November 22, 2025, the government finalized an effective quadrupling of the price for imported super-grade gasoline. Simultaneously, millions of pensioners were cut off from their complementary health insurance beginning November 22.
These acts of simultaneous scarcity and selective luxury—the state prioritizing imported luxury cars over retiree healthcare—underscore a profound strategic fear: that the approaching anniversary of the 2019 protests will be triggered by economic pain the regime itself is now intensifying. The regime is attempting to manage an economy that its own figures acknowledge is built on systematic plunder.
Governance of Scarcity
The abrupt cancellation of complementary health insurance for millions of retirees is a blunt move to shore up the regime’s immediate financial gaps, placing the burden on the most vulnerable. The breakdown occurred because the Retirees’ Guild could not agree on a new contract with Atiyeh Sazan Hafez Insurance Company and the Social Security Organization.
The issue was the sharp increase in premiums. Ahmadi Panjaki, a member of the Retirees’ Guild Board, stated that the previous monthly premium was 300,000 tomans, split evenly between the Organization and the retirees. The proposed new contract, however, was tiered, with the lowest premium starting at 509,000 tomans, a hike of nearly 70%, making essential supplementary coverage unaffordable for many elderly citizens reliant on meager pensions. By shifting the financial burden onto pensioners, the Pezeshkian administration has traded the stability of millions of households for short-term fiscal relief, demonstrating the government’s functional indifference to the welfare of its long-serving base.
#Iran’s Retirees Betrayed by Regime Corruption, Pushed into Povertyhttps://t.co/jWvWIGjS3G
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) May 8, 2025
Fuel Shock: Queues, Prices, and Precursors
The dramatic decision regarding super-grade gasoline on November 22, 2025, serves as a carefully constructed prelude to wider fuel price “reform.” Official reports indicated that the base price for imported super gasoline on the Energy Exchange was set at 65,800 tomans per liter. Experts estimate the final consumer price, including distribution and station fees, will be between 71,000 and 75,000 tomans per liter. This pricing is approximately $0.65 to $0.68 USD, based on the current market reference of ~110,000 tomans per USD.
The government immediately tried to contain the blowback by distinguishing this price from the current subsidized tiers (1,500 and 3,000 tomans per liter). Pezeshkian’s spokesperson, Fatemeh Mohajerani, insisted that this new, expensive tier is “completely separate” and will not impact the price of essential goods or the existing subsidized tiers.
However, this line of argument is widely dismissed. The move is seen as creating a rate ceiling and a precursor to increasing the price of all fuel, an inevitable step given the government is struggling to afford the estimated $21 billion in annual gasoline subsidies. Official data and even regime-adjacent analytics tend to understate the gravity of the crisis, particularly by minimizing the inflationary ripple effect that even high-end fuel price signals send throughout the entire economy. By introducing an ultra-expensive third tier, the regime is testing the waters and creating a non-subsidized price floor, fundamentally undermining trust in the stability of all fuel prices.
#Iran News: Oil Minister Defends 50,000-Toman “Super Gasoline” as Public Fears Price Hikes https://t.co/QtRKb00foG
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) August 18, 2025
The Coercion-Plunder Nexus
The regime’s response to predictable economic outcry is the immediate escalation of coercion, designed to suppress protest before it begins. The primary fear is the unifying power of economic collapse.
The necessary coercion is undercut by the scale of the corruption exposed this week. State-affiliated economist Hossein Raghfar disclosed the shocking case of 400 Porsche luxury cars being imported in the name of a single elderly woman, noting that everyone from the Judiciary to the Parliament is aware, yet “no one dares to confront.”
In an even more damaging admission, economist Saeed Leilaz, also affiliated with pro-state factions, publicly confessed that the government structure has become a “cross-factional joint-stock company for looting the assets of the people,” asserting that both principlists and so-called reformers are complicit in the systematic theft of billions of dollars.
These exposures demonstrate that the very architecture of governance is built on systematic plunder, which is the root cause of the scarcity. The regime’s use of warnings and criticism by officials is merely a regime preservation tactic, designed to imply the problem is a few bad actors rather than the corrupt structure that produced them.
Intensifying Power Struggles in #Tehran Reveal a State Losing Internal Controlhttps://t.co/4Alzx62spt
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 30, 2025
Flashpoints at Street Level
The systematic failure to provide basic economic security is the true engine of potential unrest. The persistence of desperation is indicated by reports of worker and welfare protests over unpaid wages and unemployment—the same conditions that led to the tragic financial desperation of individuals like Ahmad Baledi and Shahou Safari in recent weeks.
The regime’s choice to allocate scarce foreign currency to 400 luxury cars instead of essential medicines is not an economic oversight; it is a political statement that privileges the loyalty of the elite over the lives of the populace.
The regime is now trapped in the inescapable reality that it cannot effectively ration resources and simultaneously persuade the public of its competence or goodwill. The twin shocks of raising fuel prices and abandoning retirees guarantee that every act of scarcity will be correctly understood as a choice by the ruling elite to enrich itself at the public’s expense, accelerating an irreversible erosion of legitimacy.