Amid ongoing economic instability and skyrocketing energy costs, the Iranian regime has announced a decision to allow private entities to import super gasoline at global market rates. State-aligned Asr-e-Iran confirmed on November 12 that “imported super gasoline by private entities is expected to be priced close to international rates.” This move has raised concerns that it is a preliminary step to more widespread fuel price hikes, potentially signaling a repeat of the unrest seen during the 2019 protests triggered by gasoline price increases.
The Masoud Pezeshkian administration’s strategy appears to involve introducing a new, high-cost gasoline option to gauge public reaction to inflated fuel prices.
The recent decision is rooted in ongoing energy shortages and increasing fiscal imbalances. Deputy Oil Minister Masoud Pezeshkian recently acknowledged the crisis in an interview published by the Supreme Leader’s office, revealing that the government currently spends $8 billion annually on gasoline imports. Pezeshkian expressed frustration at the unsustainable nature of this approach, saying, “We buy gasoline at roughly 30,000 to 40,000 tomans per liter and sell it for only 1,500 tomans. How long can we continue this?”
Amid Budget Shortfall in #Iran, #Pezeshkian Government Prioritizes Gas Price Hike Over Security Expenditureshttps://t.co/MEzoIUDB75
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 1, 2024
Government spokesperson Fatemeh Mohajerani confirmed the import authorization for super gasoline at global prices, emphasizing that distribution would occur “separately from subsidized fuel channels.” Speaking on November 12, she highlighted that this measure had been approved by the Cabinet, framing it as part of broader efforts to address energy imbalances and to “maintain public health and energy stability.”
Meanwhile, official news agencies, including Aftab News, outlined that super gasoline imports have been officially approved by the Iranian Cabinet under Article 9 of the 2024 Budget Law. The Aftab News report explained that the gasoline will be sold “separately from subsidized fuel distribution channels,” signaling a shift towards a more market-driven pricing model. However, the current subsidized rate of 3,500 tomans per liter will be dwarfed by the imported super gasoline price, expected to hover between 61,000 and 80,000 tomans per liter, depending on exchange rates.
The regime’s strategy is clear: through incremental adjustments and gradual exposure to global prices, they hope to condition the public to an inevitable rise in fuel costs. Some economic experts suggest that this tactic is designed to “soften” public response by introducing new pricing measures through slow, drawn-out discussions and limited implementation, thus reducing immediate shock and backlash.
For Iranians, this potential hike recalls the 2019 protests that erupted after an overnight tripling of fuel prices, which spread to 54 cities and were met with lethal force by the regime. Reports from that period indicated that approximately 1,500 protesters were killed by security forces.
