Four-minute read
Iran’s clerical rulers are grappling with simultaneous crises that expose systemic collapse in the regime’s economic and social foundations. Blackouts continue despite falling demand, water reserves are at record lows, the housing market is in free fall, and insiders now warn of a “time bomb” in youth unemployment. Even state media and former ministers have admitted failure, underscoring the regime’s inability to meet the most basic needs of its people.
Infrastructure down
On September 13, 2025, the IRGC’s Fars news agency acknowledged that electricity shortages persist even after a sharp fall in consumption. The report noted that “with an 11,000 MW reduction in electricity use in the past ten days, planned blackouts in industrial and household sectors still continue.” The scale of this reduction, equivalent to 65 gas-fired units, underscores the extent of mismanagement.
Earlier, on September 1, the deputy energy minister had promised that “blackouts will stop within a month.” That pledge now lies in ruins. The persistence of outages despite lower demand highlights what the report itself described as “the regime’s failure in providing vital infrastructure.”
#Iran's Economic Collapse Deepens as 80% Face Poverty, Blackouts Worsen, and Regime Braces for Unresthttps://t.co/X0aF4AqFgG
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) August 25, 2025
The water crisis is equally severe. On September 12, 2025, the deputy regional water authority in Alborz province admitted that storage at the Karaj and Taleghan dams had plummeted. “Karaj dam is only 20 percent full and 80 percent empty, compared to 69 percent full at this time last year,” he said — a decline of 50 percent. Taleghan dam stood at 44 percent, down 23 percent from 2024. The official also confirmed that Salehiyeh wetland was at risk of drying up entirely.
Housing Crisis Deepens
The regime’s own press has been forced to acknowledge a collapse in the housing market. On September 14, 2025, the state-run daily Jahan-e Sanat wrote that the market “is in one of the most critical periods in its history,” pointing to a “deep recession in construction” and the sharp fall in building permits, particularly in Tehran.
The paper admitted that “estimates show Iran needs at least one million new housing units annually to meet demographic demand, but actual production is far lower. As a result, the backlog of unmet demand grows each year.” The report concluded that the crisis has “sharply increased the distance between households and the possibility of home ownership.”
#Iran’s Regime in Crisis: Escalating Repression, Internal Rifts, and Signs of Collapsehttps://t.co/6TbrflVDJk
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) September 1, 2025
Shrinking Household Budgets
Even former officials have been forced to concede the devastation of daily life. On September 13, 2025, former agriculture minister Issa Kalantari declared: “Pezeshkian’s government in the economic field does not deserve a passing grade.” He cited soaring prices for basic goods: “The price of rice had already reached 300,000 tomans before the war. Beans and legumes had tripled before the war. They cannot use the war as an excuse.”
Kalantari warned that families are being pushed below the poverty line: “People say the poverty line is now 40 million tomans a month. How long can someone earning 15 or 20 million tolerate inflation?” He added bluntly: “Talking is not enough, there must be action.”
Corruption in Social Security
At the same time, new corruption scandals show how state institutions are looted while ordinary citizens struggle. On September 5, 2025, Mehr News reported that the director of the Social Security Organization, Mostafa Salari, admitted to a 40 billion toman fraud. “One retired consultant, by receiving a 40 billion toman contract, created the grounds for removing insurance premiums in one case,” Salari confessed. The revelation underscores how workers’ and retirees’ funds are diverted into patronage networks even as millions live on minimal pensions.
A Generation Amid Ruins: #Iran's Collapse and the Seeds of a New Futurehttps://t.co/72iWd2VlUF
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) July 28, 2025
The Jobless “Time Bomb”
Unemployment is now described by regime experts as a direct threat to stability. On September 13, 2025, economist Hamid Haj-Esmaeili warned that hidden unemployment among graduates, women, and youth amounted to a “time bomb for Iran’s economy and security.” He added that official statistics were deceptive, stressing: “The majority of recent protests and social crises have come from young people, women, and graduates. This accumulation of discontent has the capacity to become a crisis in the future.”
Even loyalist media are issuing warnings. On September 13, 2025, Jahan-e Sanat published a piece titled “The Worst Violence Rooted in Inflation,” cautioning that “the consequences of flaring inflation, given the confusion of the nuclear file, will be very hard and damaging.” The paper described a population seething in silence: “Iranians quietly and consciously become unresponsive to everything and swallow their anger. Political sociologists believe this behavior can be far more dangerous than any other.”
The article concluded with a stark warning to the regime itself: “The government will only realize this violence of the people when it is already too late.”
The 12-Day War Didn’t Break #Iran’s Economy — It Exposed the Collapse Already Underwayhttps://t.co/61VGb5Fj9H
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) July 25, 2025
Ideological Retreat Amid Collapse
Even as social and economic pressures mount, regime institutions retreat into ideological defense. On September 6, 2025, cleric Ali Komesari, head of the Khomeini Foundation, complained that “most of the discrediting today targets Ruhollah Khomeini, the former Supreme Leader, even though he has been dead for 36 years.” He insisted that officials must defend Khomeini’s 1988 fatwa for mass executions, saying: “We must not stutter in defending Imam. He gave a jurisprudential and governmental order.”
Such statements, while daily life deteriorates, underscore the regime’s disconnect from reality and its obsession with preserving relevancy through its extremist agenda rather than addressing people’s needs.
A System on the Brink
Taken together, the admissions from officials, state media, and former ministers reveal a system in free fall. From blackouts despite lower demand, to drying reservoirs, collapsing housing supply, runaway inflation, corruption in social security, and the “time bomb” of youth unemployment, the regime faces multiple converging crises.
Even its own outlets now warn that popular anger may only become visible “when it is too late.” The clerical establishment, unwilling and unable to change, doubles down on defending the legacy of repression. The result is a brittle system where every new failure compounds the risk of social explosion.