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Iran’s leadership is sending increasingly urgent warnings about internal vulnerabilities, reflecting mounting fears of a social explosion amid ideological, cultural, and economic challenges. In recent official statements, senior clerics and regime figures have emphasized the pivotal role of religious institutions in countering what they describe as an unprecedented wave of foreign and domestic threats.
In a message read at the centennial commemoration of Qom’s seminary, the regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underscored the seminary’s role as “the front line in confronting enemy threats in various arenas.” While affirming the seminary’s importance, Khamenei acknowledged the growing pressure it faces. “These hundreds of articles, journals, public lectures, and TV programs… cannot fulfill the mission of clear and effective communication in the face of the flood of misleading insinuations,” he warned. His message signals alarm at the ability of outside narratives to penetrate Iranian society, particularly among youth, despite the regime’s extensive propaganda apparatus.
Khamenei called on seminary leaders to neutralize “malicious insinuations” that he said were designed to make young clerics lose hope about the future of Iran’s Islamic system. His emphasis on the seminary’s proactive role highlights the regime’s fear that ideological disengagement inside clerical circles could erode the foundations of its authority.
Surfaced footage reveals state officials’ fear of public defiance during #IranRevolution2022. Watch and judge what they are faced with. pic.twitter.com/An9li32Dxc
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) November 18, 2022
Meanwhile, Ahmad Saadi, a member of the Assembly of Experts, added a stark warning about new technological threats. Speaking on state TV, Saadi raised concerns about the speed of social and technological change, warning that “artificial intelligence and social media” are transforming the landscape so rapidly that the seminary risks falling behind. “Some believe governance and the administration of society fall outside the seminary’s domain… but if the seminary retreats, we face the same threat we faced in 1988,” Saadi warned, referring to past existential challenges. He framed the situation as an urgent battle to assert religious authority over governance in the face of competing secular and modern influences.
Adding to the regime’s visible anxiety, Kayhan Daily warned that the government’s economic plans could provoke unrest akin to the deadly November 2019 protests. The paper cautioned that implementing International Monetary Fund recommendations—particularly on energy reforms—could lead to a repeat of the “gasoline uprising,” evoking fears of spontaneous protests spiraling out of control.
Ahmad Rahdar, an influential cleric, offered further insight into the regime’s troubled outlook. In televised remarks, Rahdar admitted that the regime’s proxies and security forces are confronting morale challenges abroad and at home. Describing Iran’s military presence in Syria, he revealed the difficulty in justifying Tehran’s intervention to local Shiites. “It was hard to tell Syrian Shiites that our presence wasn’t just to defend them, but to defend the Islamic system itself,” Rahdar said. He acknowledged that many in Syria viewed the regime’s priorities with skepticism, underscoring a deeper legitimacy crisis extending beyond Iran’s borders.
#Iranian Officials Fear Uprising and Regime Downfall on Anniversary of 2009 and 2017 Protestshttps://t.co/6w44RIVFHK
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) December 31, 2024
Together, these statements reflect a ruling class preoccupied with a widening ideological gap between itself and society. Despite projecting strength, Iran’s leaders appear increasingly alarmed by the forces—cultural, technological, economic, and generational—that threaten to undermine their control. Their anxiety is compounded by signs of weakening resolve within their own ranks, as both domestic security forces and regional proxies struggle with declining morale and wavering loyalty. The constant invocation of ideological vigilance suggests a regime haunted by the possibility that another wave of unrest could emerge—not only from a disillusioned populace, but also from cracks forming within its own security apparatus.