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Recent statements by Iranian officials and media outlets underscore mounting fears within the clerical regime about the potential for uprisings and a revolutionary overthrow. These anxieties reveal a deeply unsettled leadership struggling to maintain control in the face of widespread dissent and economic instability.
Former regime president Mohammad Khatami issued a stark warning about the precarious state of the country, emphasizing the need to avoid chaos and regime change. “We are in a very critical situation,” Khatami admitted. “The 15-point plan I proposed remains the least costly and most beneficial path to ensure the country does not descend into unrest and conflict. This would prevent what I call a failed overthrow, and yet it also avoids self-destruction.”
Azar Mansouri, a spokesperson for the revisionist faction that sells itself as “reformists,” echoed similar concerns about the fragility of the regime. “If there are ears to hear and eyes to see,” she said, “recent surveys and the results of the presidential election reveal the depth of the challenges and the rift between the government and the people.” Mansouri also warned that “the world and the Middle East are undergoing significant transformations, and if these are not understood properly, national security will face unprecedented risks.”
The regime’s internal divisions have also surfaced publicly, as highlighted by Mohammad Mohajeri, a figure linked to former Speaker Ali Larijani. He described escalating tensions within the extremist factions, stating, “The extremist Principlists and totalitarian forces have intensified their attacks on the current administration, even fueling rumors of [President] Masoud Pezeshkian’s resignation.”
Five years ago, #Iran's November 2019 uprising erupted in over 190 cities—an outcry against tyranny and injustice. Despite the regime’s brutal crackdown, the #MEKResistanceUnits stood tall, leading the charge for freedom. Their sacrifices still ignite Iran’s fight for democracy. pic.twitter.com/sstpdflCP2
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) November 15, 2024
Accusing the Principlist faction of aligning themselves with the regime’s enemies, the board member of Khabar Online added, “It cannot be said that the extremist faction of the Principlist camp is colluding with the hypocrites [MEK] and regime change groups in a coordinated manner, but there is certainly a kind of harmony visible between the totalitarian faction and the hypocrites.”
Mohajeri warned of potential consequences if these groups continued their aggressive tactics, saying, “Whatever happens, the blame will inevitably fall on the extremists. I believe our security apparatus must remain vigilant to prevent a repeat of events like those in 2017 and 2019.”
The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency raised alarms about what it called efforts to destabilize the country. It claimed, “The psychological operations of external enemies, amplified by regional developments, have turned into a full-scale tsunami against the Iranian system.”
In a clear attempt to link external opposition groups to domestic unrest, Tasnim accused the MEK of “spreading rumors about the president’s resignation to amplify instability.” The agency added, “These efforts illustrate unintended coordination between certain internal and external groups seeking to destabilize Iran.”
#Iran Regime Backs Down on #Hijab Law Amid Fear of Social Uprising and Internal Divisionshttps://t.co/jm2zrMoT1F
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) December 18, 2024
Even within state-aligned media, the tone reflects urgency. A December 28 column in Etemad, written by former minister Ataollah Mohajerani, urged the regime to pay heed to public demands. “The government must open its eyes to the people and hear their voices,” Mohajerani wrote. “If it does not, one day, the people will speak with a stormy and bitter voice. As Lamartine said, ‘He who falls asleep to the sound of ocean waves will wake to the roar of a storm.’ Such awakening will be too late, costly, and the beginning of calamity.”
On December 28, the Ebtekar newspaper, in an article titled “How Bad Are Things?” acknowledged that all factions of the regime agree on the dire and dangerous state of affairs, though they differ on the solutions. Ebtekar concluded the article with a warning: “Before it’s too late, the groundwork must be laid for genuine private sector activity. Before it’s too late, trust must be restored among Iranian investors to encourage investment.”
The increasing number of warnings from figures across the regime highlights its growing fear of an uprising that could mirror past protests or spark a larger revolutionary movement. As internal divisions deepen and public discontent rises, the regime’s leadership appears increasingly aware of the precariousness of its hold on power.