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Recent pronouncements from high-ranking Iranian regime officials offer a stark window into the deep-seated fear gripping the ruling establishment. Faced with a populace increasingly restive due to worsening economic conditions and systemic mismanagement, these officials are resorting to a familiar playbook: blaming external enemies and elaborate conspiracies for the explosive state of Iranian society.
Their words, however, betray a profound anxiety about the potential for widespread protests and the regime’s own culpability in creating the conditions for an uprising.
IRGC Points to “Economic Problems” as New “Overthrow Model”
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has openly acknowledged a shift in what it perceives as the strategy of its opponents. Mehdi Sayari, the Deputy Head of the IRGC’s Intelligence Organization, recently claimed that those seeking to topple the regime have “changed the model of overthrow.”
Watch and judge why this terrified military commander serving the terrorist regime in #Iran aims to disarm the explosive society. pic.twitter.com/hk3s2xKFSC
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 10, 2023
According to Sayari, these adversaries are now “designing economic problems to spread despair at the societal level.” He elaborated that “the image of the adversaries in cyberspace is the collapse of Iran, and in this discussion, they focus on the inefficiency of the system to destroy people’s hope in society.”
Sayari further asserted, “To achieve this goal, they must benefit from public participation; therefore, they have designed economic problems to spread despair at the societal level.” This admission is telling. It indicates that the regime is acutely aware that the dire economic situation, characterized by rampant inflation, unemployment, and a collapsing currency, is the most potent fuel for public discontent.
By framing economic hardship as an externally engineered plot, the IRGC attempts to deflect responsibility from the regime’s chronic corruption and disastrous economic policies, which have impoverished millions of Iranians. The fear is palpable: the regime understands that economic despair can, and likely will, translate into mass mobilization.
#Iran News: Regime Insider Warns of Explosive Society Amid Alarming Signs of Unresthttps://t.co/ph61IEXpCk
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 26, 2025
Basic Service Failures? Blame “The Enemy”
This narrative of external blame extends beyond broad economic strategies to the daily struggles faced by ordinary Iranians. Mohammad Mehdi Hosseini Hamedani, the representative of regime Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Alborz province, declared that “today, the enemy uses water shortages and power outages as a pretext to pit the people against each other and the government.” He went on to claim, “They use the water shortage and electricity problem, the root of which is themselves [the enemy] and their sanctions, as an excuse to create a dichotomy.”
These statements are a clear attempt to absolve the regime of responsibility for the crumbling infrastructure and its inability to provide basic necessities. As Iran faces what officials like Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad admit will be a “difficult winter” with power plants operating at “under 30% efficiency,” and as widespread blackouts began unusually early in mid-spring 2025, the regime scrambles for scapegoats. Rather than addressing the decades of underinvestment and mismanagement, such as the estimated 250−280 billion needed for the gas sector alone to reach a normal state, officials like Hamedani point fingers externally. This deflection underscores their fear that the public’s patience is wearing thin, and that tangible hardships like power cuts and water scarcity can easily become flashpoints for widespread anger.
Raisi Government and Parliament Clash Amidst Restive Society and #Economic Turmoil in #Iranhttps://t.co/vPsBKxK4mO
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) April 30, 2024
The “Hybrid Warfare” Smokescreen for Dissent
The regime’s arsenal of excuses culminates in the concept of “hybrid warfare.” The IRGC’s Sayari claimed, “The enemy’s model of overthrow in Iran has changed, but the goal is the same; today, the model of overthrow is designed based on hybrid warfare, and the enemy has focused on the people’s religion and has made the destruction of religion its top priority.”
This “hybrid warfare” narrative serves as a convenient catch-all to delegitimize any form of dissent, whether it’s protests against economic conditions, calls for social freedoms, or criticism of the regime’s oppressive policies. By framing internal discontent as an orchestrated assault on the nation’s religious and cultural foundations, the regime attempts to rally its shrinking base and justify further repression.
However, this rhetoric also exposes a fundamental insecurity: a fear that its ideological grip is weakening and that the Iranian people are increasingly seeing through the facade. The focus on the “destruction of religion” is particularly indicative of a regime that has long used religious dogma to maintain power and now fears losing that crucial lever of control.
Iran’s Conflicting State #Media Outlets Sing in Chorus in Warning against Restive Societyhttps://t.co/A3XVB0w40J
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 7, 2023
A Regime Haunted by its Own Failures
The increasingly frantic pronouncements from Iranian regime officials like Sayari and Hamedani are not signs of strength, but of profound weakness and fear. Their elaborate theories of “changed overthrow models,” “enemy pretexts” for basic service failures, and “hybrid warfare” targeting religion are desperate attempts to mask their own catastrophic failures in governance.
By acknowledging that “economic problems” can “spread despair” and lead to calls for “overthrow,” the regime implicitly admits its own culpability in creating a society teetering on the brink.
The constant deflection of blame onto external enemies is a tacit recognition that the Iranian people have ample reason to be enraged by corruption, incompetence, and repression. These officials are not merely analyzing external threats; they are projecting their own fears of a population that has suffered too much and is increasingly unwilling to tolerate a system that offers no hope for the future. The regime knows that Iranian society is an explosive tinderbox, and its own rhetoric reveals who it truly fears holds the match: the people of Iran.