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Today, as Iran’s clerical regime desperately attempts to project strength—mobilizing government employees, security forces, and their families into the streets to mark the 46th anniversary of its establishment—it has never been weaker or closer to collapse.
The uprising of 2022, shattered long-held assumptions about the regime’s stability. The explosion of popular anger, sustained over months, exposed deep fissures within Iranian society. Protesters, particularly the defiant youth, took to the streets, punishing the regime’s enforcers and judicial figures during and after the uprising, proving to the world that their desire to overthrow the clerical dictatorship was unwavering.
This was not an isolated event. It followed a series of national protests from 2017 to 2020, each eroding the myth of the regime’s invincibility. Similarly, the unraveling of Tehran’s regional proxy network and the collapse of its sole remaining ally in Syria have all reinforced the growing realization: that the regime’s power is built on a fragile foundation.
Yet, history reminds us that dictatorial overconfidence is nothing new. In 1979, the world was caught off guard by the swift downfall of the Shah’s regime, despite its image as “an island of stability in a turbulent region,” as described by President Carter. Lavish celebrations of Iran’s 2,500-year monarchy, military purchases fueled by oil wealth, and an iron-fisted security apparatus gave the illusion of permanence. The Shah, much like Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei today, fancied himself as a regional power broker. His generals referred to him as “the Gendarme of the Region,” just as Khamenei’s Revolutionary Guard commanders have claimed dominion over several capitals across the Middle East.
But both regimes shared a fatal flaw: the belief that brute force could substitute for legitimacy. The Shah relied on SAVAK, his secret police, to silence dissent, assuming that fear alone would secure his rule. He deliberately fostered the perception that “one in three Iranians” worked for the intelligence services, using it as a psychological weapon to intimidate the public. In targeting opposition groups like the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI) and the Organization of Iranian People’s Fedaian, he inadvertently preserved the clerical establishment, which ultimately hijacked the revolution.
Khamenei, in turn, has spent billions constructing a vast security state, layering Iran with intelligence agencies and deploying the Revolutionary Guard’s divisions across every major city to crush dissent. He has prioritized internet censorship, employing a sprawling cyber army to shape public perception inside and outside Iran. Western think tanks and lobbying groups have been co-opted to propagate the idea that Iran’s regime is here to stay and that no viable alternative exists. The primary target of this information war? The PMOI and the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI)—the most organized opposition force capable of leading a democratic transition.
The Shah also sought to exploit international crises to maintain his rule, capitalizing on the 1973 Arab-Israeli War and the spike in oil prices to amass personal wealth and consolidate power. Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and his secret service portrayed regime dissidents as Soviet mercenaries, using this narrative to demonize, dehumanize, and legitimize their brutal crackdown on opposition forces.
Four decades later, the clerical dictatorship is attempting the same survival playbook—leveraging international crises, manipulating public discourse, and infiltrating Western institutions to cast its opponents as illegitimate. However, unlike in 1979, Iran’s opposition today is more organized, globally recognized and undeterred by censorship. Even in the face of a media blackout, it refuses to be silenced.
Unsurprisingly, the clerical regime’s propaganda machine has found an unlikely ally in remnants of the deposed monarchy. When former U.S. President Jimmy Carter passed away on December 29, 2024, royalist circles, amplified by regime-aligned cyber operatives, revived the narrative that Carter was to blame for the Shah’s downfall. In doing so, they unwittingly admitted to the monarchy’s lack of popular support. After all, Carter’s only demand of his Middle Eastern ally was to respect human rights. If a regime collapses simply because it can no longer execute and torture its citizens with impunity, what does that say about its foundation?
While the international community, and the West in particular, were caught off guard by the Shah’s propaganda and power displays regarding Iran’s internal affairs—and later failed disastrously in their attempt to “manage the revolution”—there is no excuse for repeating the same historic mistake today.
The Iranian resistance, through its extensive network inside the country known as the Resistance Units, has been systematically organized to ensure that the transfer of power from the dictatorship to the Iranian people proceeds without disruption. With decades of experience, this resistance movement is determined to prevent any scenario that could derail the process of democratic transition.
Once Mohammad Reza Pahlavi was forced to halt torture and executions, his dreaded SAVAK was effectively paralyzed, and his regime unraveled within 27 months. Having learned from his predecessor’s downfall, Khamenei will never willingly make the same “mistake.” However, if Khamenei’s instruments of repression—the IRGC and MOIS—are recognized as legitimate targets, his regime would not withstand the tide of resistance for 27 months.
The world must recognize this inevitability and stop delaying the course of history. The world’s largest state sponsor of terrorism is on the brink of regime change. If sufficient pressure is applied to strip it of its ability to execute and torture, the Iranian people will deliver freedom to their nation, stability to the region, and security to the world.