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The 2022 uprising in Iran, ignited by the tragic death of Mahsa (Jina) Amini on September 16 while in the custody of the regime’s so-called Morality Police, marks a profound and irreversible shift in Iran’s political landscape. This nationwide rebellion, which spread like wildfire across cities and villages, has permanently changed the relationship between the regime and the people, and no matter how hard the ruling establishment tries, there is no turning back to the status quo before that date.
The Regime’s Struggling Status
The clerical dictatorship, which has betrayed both Islam and the principles of a republic throughout its nearly half-century of bloody rule, once maintained an iron grip on Iranian society through fear and brute force. Today, however, it faces an existential crisis that it can no longer ignore. The sheer scale of the protests and the diversity of participants—from women and youth to ethnic minorities and workers—demonstrated that dissatisfaction with the regime transcends any single group or grievance. The uprising laid bare the reality that the regime’s legitimacy has been eroded beyond repair. What started as protests over compulsory hijab and repression quickly evolved into widespread calls for regime change, as protesters chanted slogans like “Death to the dictator” and “Death to Khamenei.”
The uprising shattered the illusion that the regime could pacify its population through piecemeal reforms or temporary concessions. In response to these protests, the regime has resorted to its usual tactics of mass arrests, executions, internet blackouts, and brutal crackdowns by its security forces. Yet, these measures have not been enough to extinguish the flames of dissent. Rather, they have only deepened the people’s resolve, proving that the system is incapable of reform and only serves its own survival at the cost of the nation.
A People United for Change
Perhaps the most significant outcome of the 2022 uprising is the emergence of a united front among the Iranian people against the regime. For years, the regime managed to suppress individual protests by keeping various social, ethnic, and economic groups divided. This time, however, the protests represented a broad-based coalition of Iranians from all walks of life. Women led the charge, courageously defying the regime’s oppressive gender laws, while ethnic minorities, particularly Kurds and Baluchis, faced extreme violence but continued their resistance.
The sheer courage and tenacity of the Iranian people in the face of such repression are indicative of a society that has passed the point of fear. Women, youth, intellectuals, workers, and ethnic minorities are no longer simply asking for reforms but demanding the wholesale dismantling of the clerical dictatorship. The protests may ebb and flow, but the demand for regime change is now firmly embedded in the national consciousness.
The Regime Change Movement Gathers Momentum
The organized opposition movements inside and outside Iran have been emboldened by the uprising. The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) and the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) have long advocated for a democratic, secular republic in Iran. The 2022 uprising has shown that their vision is now more relevant than ever. The NCRI’s Ten-Point Plan, which outlines a path toward democracy, gender equality, and the abolition of the death penalty, resonates strongly with the aspirations of those who took to the streets in 2022.
Despite facing a devastating crackdown that led to the arrest of over 3,600 members, the PMOI’s internal network of Resistance Units has managed to rapidly recruit and expand. Over the past two years, these Resistance Units have significantly increased their activities, showcasing their resilience and strength. In the Free Iran 2023 World Summit, they demonstrated 10,000 bold actions, and in the Free Iran 2024 World Summit, this number surged to 20,000, marking a vivid escalation in their defiance against the regime.
The uprising also highlighted the growing disillusionment within the regime’s loyal forces, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Basij paramilitary forces. While these forces played their usual role in violently suppressing protesters, cracks are starting to show. Increasingly, members of these forces are questioning the morality and sustainability of the regime’s methods. Desertions, defections, and a growing reluctance among some security personnel to brutalize their fellow citizens signal that even the regime’s loyalists are not immune to the winds of change sweeping across Iran.
January 30 – Kerman, south-central #Iran
Locals continuing the nationwide protests against the regime on the 137th night of the uprising.#IranRevolution#مرگ_بر_ستمگر_چه_شاه_باشه_چه_رهبرpic.twitter.com/StFOFFSfJz— People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) (@Mojahedineng) January 30, 2023
The World’s Changed Perception of Iran
Internationally, the 2022 uprising has permanently altered how the world views Iran and its regime. The regime can no longer present itself as a stable or legitimate government, nor can it deflect criticism by exploiting geopolitical tensions. The brutal suppression of peaceful protesters, especially women and minorities, has drawn widespread condemnation from governments, international organizations, and human rights groups. Countries that once sought engagement or reformist solutions within the Islamic Republic are now coming to the realization that the regime is beyond reform and that true stability in the region will only come with regime change in Iran.
This shift in global perception is also reflected in the increasing calls for targeted sanctions, the isolation of the regime on the world stage, and the classification of the IRGC as a terrorist organization by several countries. The world now sees the Iranian people, not the regime, as the legitimate representatives of Iran’s future.
The Regime’s Security and Foreign Proxy Forces in Crisis
The 2022 uprising has not only exposed the regime’s domestic vulnerabilities but also pushed it to embark on an ambitious and destructive regional warfare strategy to distract from its internal problems. In an attempt to project strength abroad and divert attention from the growing dissent at home, the regime has ramped up its involvement in regional conflicts. This became particularly evident following the devastating war that erupted on October 7, 2023, a conflict that underscored Tehran’s malign role in the Middle East. Rather than being part of any solution, the Iranian regime has once again been highlighted as a major destabilizing force in the region.
The regime has long relied on groups such as Hezbollah and Shia militias in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen to project power, but the domestic uprising has stretched its resources thin. Now, in a desperate bid to maintain control, the regime is funneling even more resources into these proxy wars. However, the Iranian people have long condemned this policy, demanding an end to the wasteful expenditure on foreign conflicts while they endure economic hardship and political repression at home.
Behind Regional Aggression, #Iran Conceals an Underlying Internal Perilhttps://t.co/EktfmSNhGL
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 30, 2024
Tehran’s actions go beyond the region. The regime has escalated its involvement by sending drones and ballistic missiles to other countries, fueling wars even beyond the Middle East. These aggressive moves are not signs of strength but rather attempts by the regime to mask its domestic weakness by projecting power abroad.
By continuing to prioritize external aggression over domestic well-being, the regime is only hastening its loss of control. Its foreign proxy forces are becoming increasingly scrutinized, both domestically and internationally, as the Iranian population demands an end to these costly and destructive interventions.
Conclusion: No Turning Back
The 2022 uprising has fundamentally changed the political landscape in Iran. The regime can no longer rely on repression alone to maintain control, and the people of Iran have shown they will not be silenced. The movement for regime change, both domestically and internationally, has gained unstoppable momentum. The regime’s loyal forces are wavering, and the world’s perception of Iran has shifted irrevocably.
There is no going back to the days before September 16, 2022. The uprising has marked the beginning of the end for the clerical dictatorship, and the only viable path forward is a democratic, secular, and free Iran. The Iranian people have made it clear that they will settle for nothing less.
