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On May 20, 2025, Iranian regime supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, speaking at a ceremony marking the first anniversary of former President Ebrahim Raisi’s death, issued volatile pronouncements on the country’s nuclear program.
His words, laden with aggressive rhetoric towards the United States, appeared to instantly unravel market confidence, triggering a sharp fall in the rial’s value and a plunge in the Tehran Stock Exchange, laying bare the fragile state of the nation’s economy and the precariousness of the regime’s footing.
Addressing an audience that included Raisi’s family and regime officials, Khamenei’s remarks on indirect nuclear negotiations took a jarring turn. “They [the Americans] should try not to talk nonsense,” he warned. He then directly challenged US positions on Iran’s uranium enrichment: “To say ‘we will not allow Iran to enrich’ is a big mistake.” He asserted, “No one is waiting for anyone’s permission. The Islamic Republic has its own policy, its own method, and it will pursue its policy.”
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— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) May 19, 2025
In a sign perhaps of needing to justify this confrontational path to a worried public, he added that he would, at a later date, explain to the Iranian people “why the Western and American sides and others insist so much that there should be no enrichment in Iran.”
The market’s reaction to Khamenei’s words was not one of confidence, but of immediate alarm. Within hours, the Iranian rial, already battered by sanctions and mismanagement, took another dive. Reports from the open market showed the US dollar exchange rate, which stood around 81,795 tomans before the speech, climbing sharply to over 83,675 tomans, with some accounts citing figures exceeding 85,000 tomans.
The Tehran Stock Exchange did not fare any better; its main index, TEPIX, nosedived by 58,000 units, a significant 1.82% drop, to settle at 3.167 million units. This financial contagion spread to precious metals, with the price of an Emami gold coin reportedly surging by 1.11 million tomans to 72.495 million tomans, and a gram of 18-carat gold increasing by 110,000 tomans. Such immediate and drastic economic consequences pointed to a profound lack of faith in the leadership’s direction.
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— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) May 14, 2025
This self-inflicted economic instability occurred against a backdrop of clear international red lines regarding Iran’s nuclear activities. US officials, from former President Donald Trump to Senator Marco Rubio and lead negotiator Steve Witkoff, have consistently stated that Iran cannot be allowed to enrich uranium. Witkoff, as recently as May 18, 2025, emphasized that halting Iranian enrichment was a “very clear red line” for Washington, and that ” We cannot allow even 1% of an enrichment capability.”
International anxieties are further stoked by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose reports indicate Iran possesses enough enriched uranium to potentially fuel several nuclear weapons if processed further to 90% purity. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi recently reiterated his concern over Iran’s accumulation of highly enriched uranium without a specific peaceful activity, highlighting the regime’s increasingly isolated and questionable nuclear path.
In his speech, Khamenei also cast doubt on the very indirect negotiations his regime is engaged in. He noted that such talks occurred under Raisi “without result,” and then ominously added, “Now too, we do not think it will reach a result, and we do not know what will happen.”
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— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) May 10, 2025
This public display of pessimism from the highest authority, especially when contrasted with recent statements from his own Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, who had confirmed on the same day that Iran was reviewing a new US proposal for a fifth round of talks, only served to amplify perceptions of a regime in disarray.
Far from projecting an image of strength or resolute defiance, Khamenei’s May 20th address and its immediate aftermath have illuminated the Iranian regime’s profound vulnerabilities.
The decision to publicly double down on a contentious nuclear policy at the direct and visible expense of the nation’s economic stability suggests a leadership increasingly cornered or out of touch with the realities faced by its citizens. The ensuing financial panic is a clear testament to a crisis of confidence, signaling that the regime’s ideological pronouncements are met not with popular backing, but with fear for an already bleak economic future, further shaking its tenuous grip.