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As indirect nuclear talks between Iran and the United States resumed today in Muscat, Oman, Tehran’s vulnerability is on full display. Far from projecting strength, the Iranian regime’s return to negotiations highlights a regime scrambling to avert the collapse of its strategic position, both at home and abroad.
In parallel with these talks, the regime’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has launched an urgent diplomatic effort aimed at the European powers. “Now the ball is in their court,” Araghchi declared earlier this week, offering to travel to Paris, Berlin, and London to “initiate a new round of talks” intended to prevent the activation of the “snapback” mechanism under UN Security Council Resolution 2231 before the deadline later this year.
Over recent weeks, Araghchi traveled to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, followed by consultations with senior Chinese officials in Beijing. Seeking to project strength through alignment with Moscow and Beijing, Araghchi nonetheless emphasized his willingness to engage the E3.
European governments have responded cautiously, aware of Tehran’s longstanding pattern of using negotiations to buy time. No immediate positive signals have emerged from London or Berlin regarding Araghchi’s proposals. Meanwhile, Tehran’s overtures to Russia and China have thus far failed to deliver material relief or halt Iran’s growing international isolation.
Pezeshkian’s Desperate #Qatar Trip: Sham Diplomacy Amid #Iranian Regime’s Military Setbackshttps://t.co/aKgsvCfKZ2
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 7, 2024
The urgency behind the regime’s moves reflects deeper internal vulnerabilities. Since 2017, the clerical dictatorship has faced successive waves of domestic unrest, culminating in the nationwide uprisings of 2022–2023 that severely weakened its internal legitimacy. Regionally, Iran’s strategic depth has eroded, with major setbacks to its network of proxies and the loss of Syria as a reliable ally.
Despite its deteriorating position, Tehran continues to maintain a hardline stance in the nuclear negotiations. Araghchi reiterated that while Iran is “prepared for confidence-building,” uranium enrichment activities remain “non-negotiable” — a central point of contention with both the United States and Europe.
Tehran’s long-used strategy — delay, denial, and deception — appears once again on display. Yet, unlike in the past, the regime now faces dwindling options and escalating risks.
With the snapback deadline approaching rapidly, the coming months will test whether the international community will recognize Tehran’s desperate diplomacy for what it is — a strategy of damage control under immense pressure — or once again fall into a cycle of temporary deals that leave fundamental issues unresolved.