Three-minute read
The clerical regime, currently ensnared in an existential crisis of its own making, has pivoted toward a dangerous policy of double escalation. By ramping up nuclear blackmail on the international stage and intensifying a reign of terror against its own citizens, the ruling establishment is attempting to bridge the gap between its waning legitimacy and its crumbling grip on power. This desperate survival strategy, however, comes at an increasingly unbearable cost—not only for an Iranian society pushed to its breaking point but for the stability and security of the entire international community.
Crippled by the ongoing war and reeling from the unprecedented social hatred following its bloody suppression of the January 2026 uprising, the regime is resorting to its usual desperate tactic: nuclear extortion. A “three-urgency” bill aimed at withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has been uploaded to the Majlis system under the guise of “protecting nuclear rights”. This move is a transparent attempt by a weakened establishment to create leverage while its military infrastructure crumbles under international strikes and its demoralized base fears another major uprising.
The legislation, championed by MP Malek Shariati, calls for a full exit from the NPT and the termination of all reciprocal actions related to the JCPOA. Shariati further claims the regime will seek new nuclear alliances with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS. These threats, however, emanate from a ghost parliament; the Majlis has not held a single session since the strikes began on February 28, 2026, remaining shuttered under the excuse of “war conditions” and holidays.
This cycle of nuclear blackmail has long been the regime’s primary survival mechanism during times of existential crisis. While state-run media outlets like Tasnim News echo the calls for withdrawal by claiming NPT membership facilitates “espionage,” the reality is a regime backed into a corner. Even as Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei questions the “utility” of the treaty, he continues the tired deception that Tehran has never sought nuclear weapons.
Wary of facing pushback from its warmongering in the #MiddleEastConflict, #Iran's regime has sent another official to play the nuclear extortion card, hinting that its Supreme Leader may reconsider his fatwa and pursue nuclear weapon production. pic.twitter.com/NR14AOpObd
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) April 9, 2024
International Red Lines
For decades, the clerical establishment has treated international treaties as a facade for clandestine nuclear expansion. From the secret construction of Natanz and Fordow to persistent stalling during negotiations, the regime has used diplomacy as a tactical shield to move closer to a nuclear breakout. This “hide and seek” strategy has successfully turned the nuclear file into a tool for global blackmail, prioritizing the survival of the ruling elite over genuine transparency.
The establishment’s primary goal in any dialogue has been securing sanction relief to replenish the coffers of its repressive security forces and regional proxies. While billions in national wealth were buried in reinforced concrete bunkers, the Iranian people were pushed into systemic poverty. By choosing centrifuges over infrastructure, healthcare, and the environment, the regime has consistently demonstrated that its ambitions and obsessions far outweigh the fundamental welfare of the nation.
This legacy of deception and resource waste has finally culminated in the current cycle of war and destruction. By gambling the nation’s future on nuclear extortion and regional aggression, the leadership has invited military strikes and tragedy upon Iranian soil.
#Iran’s Nuclear Obsession: A Bomb That Destroyed a Nation’s Future https://t.co/ts9a3GLPm7
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 19, 2025
A Brutal War Against a Population That Despises Them
Internally, the regime is fighting a different war—one against its own citizens who are still mourning the bloody crackdown of the January 2026 uprising. The “record of repression” for the past year shows an unprecedented surge in arrests and executions intended to stifle the massive social hatred directed at clerical rule. This domestic terror campaign has only intensified in the early days of 2026, with security forces conducting warrantless raids across the country to preempt further dissent.
The crackdown targets anyone who dares to bypass the regime’s digital iron curtain, including a teacher activist who was abducted for the “crime” of using a VPN. In Saqqez, citizens were arrested simply for possessing Starlink equipment, as the regime fears the loss of its monopoly over information. Religious minorities like the Bahá’í couple in Shiraz, Behzad Yazdani and Romina Khazali, have also been swept up, with their 14-year-old child subjected to interrogation by IRGC intelligence.
The tragic human cost of the regime’s warmongering was further highlighted by the death of 11-year-old Alireza Jafari during a drone strike at a Tehran checkpoint. While the establishment forces teenagers into paramilitary activities to bolster its thinning ranks, it continues to blame external enemies for the consequences of its own provocations. Ultimately, these developments signal a regime that is failing on every front, clinging to power through nuclear threats abroad and a reign of terror at home.
Ultimately, the current cycle of nuclear extortion abroad and domestic carnage at home serves as a grim reminder that this regime is fundamentally incompatible with the modern world. To end this long-standing nightmare for both Iran and the world, the focus must shift from the appeasement-war binary to the only force capable of delivering lasting stability. The regime must change, and that transformation will be driven by the moral, political, and legal support of the Iranian people and their organized resistance. Only by standing with those who seek a democratic and secular future can the international community finally break the cycle of violence and nuclear brinkmanship.