The Iranian regime’s leadership has recently intensified its defiant rhetoric towards the international community, projecting an image of unshakeable strength and unwavering resolve, particularly concerning its nuclear program and regional influence. However, interspersed with these pronouncements of power are distinct notes of apprehension, revealing a deep-seated anxiety over the increasingly volatile domestic situation and the potential for widespread social unrest fueled by economic hardship and systemic mismanagement.
The Outward Projection: Unyielding Power and Nuclear Resolve
Official statements in mid-May 2025 painted a picture of a regime confident in its military capabilities and resolute in its nuclear ambitions. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, on May 15, 2025, asserted that Iran’s military strength, particularly its missile program, is the primary reason adversaries engage in negotiations. “If the negotiating parties, whether previously with the P5+1 or now with the US, were capable of militarily destroying our nuclear facilities, there would have been no need to enter negotiations,” Araghchi stated. “The negotiator of the Islamic Republic sits at the table relying on the armed forces that have created this capability, deterring the enemy from military attack… In fact, our defensive capabilities, the missiles of the Islamic Republic, these are what give the negotiator strength and power to sit at the table.”
#Iran News: Regime Threatens 93% Enrichment in Latest Nuclear Blackmail Tactichttps://t.co/tc5VVhhi4t
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) May 14, 2025
This sentiment was echoed by Mohammad Javad Larijani, advisor to regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei. On May 14, Larijani emphasized that “the enemy should not sense any desperation from us.” He further declared the regime’s unwillingness to compromise on its capabilities: “We will not take any step to reduce our capabilities… we are not only not haggling over the amount and quality of enrichment, but we are also not ready for negotiation or compromise on our entire nuclear capability.” Larijani even suggested a readiness to enrich uranium to high levels if deemed necessary, stating, “Sometimes we have to enrich up to 80 percent… Who are they to doubt us? It’s none of their business.”
Regime Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, on May 17, 2025, dismissed recent statements by the US President during a regional tour as “so low-level and a source of disgrace for its speaker and the American nation that they are basically not worthy of a response.” He vowed that “the Islamic Republic, to spite its enemies, will increase its power and the country’s strength every day.”
These declarations align with Tehran’s conduct in ongoing, albeit indirect, nuclear talks. While engaging with the US through intermediaries, Iranian officials have maintained that their right to uranium enrichment is an “absolute red line” and non-negotiable.
#Iran News: MP Pushes for Nuclear Armament, Challenging Deceptive Anti-Weapon Fatwahttps://t.co/jHU2to1DTe
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) May 14, 2025
The Cracks Appear: Domestic Fears Amidst a Sea of Protest
Yet, alongside this assertive posturing, other official voices have betrayed a significant undercurrent of fear regarding the internal state of the country, a fear substantiated by the widespread protests reflecting deep economic despair. Alireza Biniaz, the Friday prayer leader of Kish, delivered a sermon on May 16, 2025, that starkly highlighted these concerns.
He began by invoking a religious warning: “God says, fear a sedition that does not only include the oppressors.” This ominous prelude quickly transitioned to pressing domestic issues. Biniaz spoke of “serious issues” such as the “imbalance in energy, water, and electricity.” He lamented the nation’s excessive consumption, stating, “What is certain is that our consumption is much higher than the global average… As an Islamic society and Islamic government, we should have the most savings and the least consumption.”
His call for officials to “increase production and ensure energy, water, and electricity security” and for public cooperation to “resolve problems” directly mirrored the grievances shouted on the streets. Indeed, bakers across the country are protesting the very power cuts Bi Niaz alluded to, which ruined their meager capital.
One Andimeshk baker exclaimed on May 11, “We can no longer continue with this situation; the baker is losing his bread, and the people are losing the bread from their tables!”
#Iran Faces Escalating #Economic Crisis as Inflation Soars and Protests Intensifyhttps://t.co/MMYtKQ4DUs
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) February 23, 2025
This systemic failure, described by citizens as a result of “rampant corruption and the regime’s ineptitude,” also saw pensioners taking to the streets in numerous cities. For example, in Kermanshah, also on May 11, retirees directly blamed the authorities, chanting, “Government’s imbalance, plundering the nation’s pocket,” and warning, “With country’s power cuts, we’re going back to the Stone Age.” Their counterparts in Tehran were equally defiant, vowing, “We won’t rest until we get our rights.”
A similar note of caution was sounded by Habibollah Shabani, the Friday prayer leader in Hamedan, on May 16. While lauding Iran’s achievement of the “full nuclear fuel cycle,” he added a caveat regarding the sensitive process of enrichment: “We must be careful… so that nothing happens to the country that we will regret in the future.”
This carefully worded warning suggests an awareness of the potentially volatile domestic repercussions of policies that might further isolate the nation or exacerbate internal hardships—hardships already forcing diverse groups, from truck drivers striking over low fares to medical staff in Gilan chanting “Enough promises, our tables are empty” (May 10), and citizens in Qazvin demanding undelivered housing with cries of “We are below the poverty line, fight so we fight!” (May 15), to publicly voice their dissent.
Protest rallies and marches by retirees, workers, and students in Iran https://t.co/jDcpPM9nAf pic.twitter.com/etRTLnZokn
— Iran Focus (@Iran_Focus) May 12, 2025
A Facade of Strength Hiding Deep Insecurity
The Iranian regime’s strident assertions of power and defiance on the international stage stand in stark contrast to the undeniable evidence of profound internal fragility. The official acknowledgments of resource mismanagement and veiled warnings of “sedition” and future “regret” are not abstract concerns; they are direct reflections of a society reeling from economic hardship, as evidenced by the continuous and courageous protests across various sectors.
The regime’s aggressive rhetoric, therefore, appears less a sign of genuine confidence and more a calculated attempt to project strength outwardly, primarily to deter external pressures while simultaneously trying to intimidate a restive population. The louder the drumbeat of defiance against foreign adversaries, the more it seems intended to drown out the growing chorus of discontent from a citizenry that holds the regime accountable for the “plunder and mismanagement” that has emptied their tables and pushed them to the brink.