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As the Iranian regime grapples with a collapsing economy, regional setbacks, and widespread domestic unrest, its leadership is deeply divided over potential negotiations with the U.S. The regime’s Supreme Leader Khamenei publicly denounces talks, framing them as capitulation, but quietly allows officials to signal a willingness to negotiate. This contradiction highlights the regime’s profound fragility, contradicting its own claims of strength and unity.
On his official website, a section under Negotiation with America features Khamenei’s statements from 2021, rejecting talks outright: “Negotiation with America doesn’t solve problems. It invites endless demands… The only way to ‘solve’ problems with America is to give endless concessions: dismantle our nuclear program, amend our constitution, or abandon our sovereignty. No self-respecting Iranian would accept this.”
His fear lies in the potential collapse of the regime’s image as a bastion of resistance to “global arrogance.” Khamenei is acutely aware that giving concessions would demoralize his dwindling loyalists, especially in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has faced severe defeats in Syria and struggles with declining morale. Despite claims of strength, the regime’s forces are fractured and incapable of sustaining meaningful resistance, both domestically and abroad.
#Pezeshkian’s NBC Interview Exposes Regime's Hypocrisy and Internal Fractures in #Iranhttps://t.co/o4SJLeLNlO
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 16, 2025
To protect this illusion of strength, Khamenei deploys a dual strategy: he greenlights figures like President Masoud Pezeshkian to test the waters for negotiations, while publicly distancing himself. Pezeshkian’s recent comments during an NBC interview that “Iran is ready for fair and equal negotiations” triggered a backlash orchestrated by regime loyalists.
Hossein Shariatmadari, editor of the hardline Kayhan newspaper, condemned Pezeshkian’s remarks, stating that any suggestion of negotiation undermines the Supreme Leader’s directive to seek vengeance for Soleimani’s assassination.
Such infighting exposes the regime’s lack of a unified strategy. Meanwhile, Mehdi Fazeli, a Khamenei aide, reaffirmed the Supreme Leader’s stance: “Negotiations with the U.S. would restore its waning hegemony—a betrayal to the entire world!”
However, even those officials signaling openness to negotiations are not genuine advocates of reform or policy change. Their primary goal is to buy time for the regime, reducing international pressure while maintaining its survival strategy. These so-called moderates aim to ease sanctions without addressing the regime’s structural issues, providing a false sense of compromise to the international community.
#IRGC's Failures in Syria Shows Its Inability to Save Khamenei in #Iran, NCRI Member Sayshttps://t.co/fzu781w7af
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 5, 2025
Despite these statements, the regime’s internal struggles betray its desperation. State media, such as Setareh Sobh wrote on January 20: “Iran, during Trump’s first term, had the upper hand in the Middle East, with Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Yemen defined as part of the Resistance Front. Iran’s dominance gave the Islamic Republic significant influence in the region, but its position has since weakened.”
The international community must view these signals for what they are: a regime fractured and desperate, attempting to project strength. The clerical leadership, despite its slogans of resistance, is deeply demoralized and weakened. Its social base is eroding under the weight of ongoing protests, and its military apparatus is no longer the formidable force it once claimed to be.
Far from being a regime capable of meaningful engagement, Tehran’s contradictions and internal fragility render it incapable of sustaining serious negotiations. The world must recognize this as an opportunity to increase pressure and isolate the regime further. By denying it the lifeline of eased sanctions or diplomatic recognition, the international community can hasten the collapse of a dictatorship that thrives on duplicity but is crumbling under its own contradictions.