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Iran, Russia, and China conducted joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean and the Gulf of Oman on March 14. The war games, which reportedly involved more than 20 ships from the three countries, have been described by international media as a “show of force in the region.”
Iranian state media launched an extravagant display of propaganda campaign, clearly aimed at impressing a diverse audience, both domestically and internationally. This showcase comes at a time when the world perceives the regime to be engaged in a proxy war in the Middle East, adding significance to Tehran’s efforts to demonstrate strength and capability.
The United States and the regime have each captured several commercial vessels with links to the other in recent years, as the US has sought to enforce sanctions on the purchase of Iranian oil, while Iran has sought to retaliate against the resulting confiscations. Just before the start of this week’s naval exercises, the regime officially announced its own confiscation of an oil shipment that was bound from Kuwait to the US in January, when the tanker carrying it was seized by IRGC forces who rappelled onto the deck from helicopters.
The prospect of more intense and far-reaching cooperation between the three countries was arguably highlighted this week by Tasnim News Agency, an outlet with close ties to the IRGC when its reporting on the joint naval exercises emphasized their proximity to “three of the world’s five strategic straits” and “a crucial hub for energy and trade traffic globally.” The Houthi harassment campaign in recent months has prompted many commercial carriers to avoid one of the five referenced straits, the Bab-el-Mandeb at the mouth of the Red Sea, while Tehran has at various times threatened to close off the Persian Gulf’s Strait of Hormuz.
Perhaps emboldened by the prospect of Iranian forces contributing to or supplementing their own attacks, the Houthis have steadily escalated while also making increasingly bold claims about their own capabilities. In fact, on March 15, the group claimed to have added a hypersonic missile to its arsenal. This is highly dubious, not least because many prior Houthi missile launches have missed their target or been shot down by a US-led maritime security coalition, whereas advancement to hypersonic missiles would suggest corresponding, world-class capabilities for targeting and evading missile defenses.
In other recent statements, the Houthis have made much vaguer references to pending “surprises” in their military encounters with Western powers. Both this and the specific reference to hypersonic missiles are likely intended to give the impression that the Yemeni forces have access to a wide range of materials belonging to the Iranian regime. Tehran had previously claimed to have developed endogenous hypersonic missiles – a feat otherwise attributed only to the US, China, and Russia.
Why Firmness Will Prevent War with #Iranhttps://t.co/k4SwUpabzi
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 15, 2024
The Iranian regime has consistently tried to portray itself as immune to sanctions, regardless of their severity or the number of active waivers. At the same time, Iranian officials continue to promote the arguably contradictory narrative that those sanctions are cruel, illegal, and deeply injurious to the Iranian people. Ali Bahraini, Iran’s representative to international bodies in Geneva, presented that latter argument once again on March 14, in a speech to a meeting on the “Impact of Unilateral Coercive Measures on Sending Humanitarian Aid and Humanitarian Actors’ Performance.”
In over five months since the beginning of the new Middle East crisis, the Iranian regime has shown its fear of any military confrontation with the West, particularly the United States. Hiding behind its proxy forces and posing with military exercises only highlights this fear. Recent statements, as conveyed by its proxy semi-militias that urge Tehran not to engage in their confrontation with the US or Israel, comes across as nothing short of a charade.
While political analysts and military experts may believe some of Iran’s deceptive displays and theatrics, they cannot forget the reality of this regime. For over six years, the regime has been severely destabilized due to nationwide and regional uprisings, and the March 1 elections showed that an overwhelming majority of Iranians will use every opportunity to demand fundamental change.
Regardless of the regime’s efforts to expand the range of its missiles, increase funding for proxy mercenaries, or engage in elaborate joint exercises with other nations, stability will remain elusive. These actions only serve to remind the West that appeasing Tehran has grave consequences.
Therefore, if the West genuinely seeks solutions to the regime’s adventurism, it must awaken to the reality that the answer does not lie in Vienna, Muscat or even the Red Sea but rather in the streets of Iran.