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IRGC’s Failures in Syria Shows Its Inability to Save Khamenei in Iran, NCRI Member Says

Traffic in Ummayyad square in Damascus following the fall of former Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad

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In a comprehensive interview with Simaye Azadi (INTV), Ehsan Aminolraya, a member of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), analyzed the far-reaching consequences of the Iranian regime’s failure in Syria. He linked the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime to the broader vulnerabilities and existential crisis of the Iranian regime. Aminolraya’s insights shed light on the political, military, and socio-economic dimensions of this turning point.

A Strategic Loss Beyond Borders

Ehsan Aminolraya emphasized that the Iranian regime’s loss in Syria stemmed directly from the IRGC’s inability and lack of will to fight, a condition reflective of the broader decline of the regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Highlighting the disintegration of IRGC forces in key battles, he stated: “This retreat was not tactical in nature.”

Aminolraya also pointed to internal chaos within the IRGC, citing the killing of Commander Kioumars Pour-Hashemi during a confrontation in his own command center: “In the very first hours of the battle in Aleppo, the IRGC’s command structure collapsed. They were so fragmented that their own officers were killed by internal fire.”

He stated, “The only party unsurprised by December’s events in Syria was the Iranian regime. On December 11, 2024, Khamenei admitted to knowing about the opposition’s plans for an attack as early as September and claimed to have passed this intelligence to Bashar al-Assad’s government. Yet, Khamenei displayed a paralysis in leadership, failing to respond effectively or seize the moment. This mirrors his inaction last summer when he watched his primary proxy, Hezbollah, come under heavy pressure in Lebanon without showing the will to intervene.”

This inability to maintain cohesion and fight effectively, Aminolraya concluded, reveals the IRGC’s and, by extension, Khamenei’s dwindling capacity to sustain their grip on power, both abroad and at home.

Aminolraya pointed to the rapid unraveling of Iranian forces as a decisive factor in Assad’s sudden downfall within just 11 days. “The primary cause was the collapse of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Syria. The IRGC’s inability to withstand opposition forces showcased the regime’s inherent weakness,” he stated.

Economic Toll of Intervention

The financial cost of Iran’s intervention in Syria has been staggering. Aminolraya detailed expenditures beyond the widely cited $50 billion in direct aid:

  • Infrastructure Investments: $35 billion in military infrastructure
  • 85 kilometers of military tunnels built for missile transport to Hezbollah.
  • $250 million spent on a missile depot in Deir Ezzor.
  • $400 million invested in an airbase in Homs.
  • Seven airbases, 15 missile depots, and 22 command centers were constructed across Syria.
  • Demographic Engineering: The regime forcibly displaced Syrian Sunnis while relocating Afghan, Pakistani, and Iraqi militias to reshape the region’s demographic makeup.
  • Other Costs: $2 billion spent on religious sites, $1.5 billion on reconstruction projects in Aleppo, and undisclosed amounts funneled through entities like the IRGC’s Khatam-al-Anbiya, the Housing Foundation of the Islamic Revolution, and the Imam Khomeini Relief Foundation. Ostensibly charitable, these organizations receive significant portions of the government’s annual budget but function as part of Khamenei’s regional war machine.

These expenses have drained Iran’s economy, exacerbating domestic unrest as the public bears the brunt of deteriorating living conditions.

Impact on Domestic Politics

Aminolraya argued that the regime’s defeat in Syria directly impacts Iran’s internal dynamics, especially the ongoing anti-regime protests. “The collapse of Assad’s regime inspires hope among Iranians. If such a brutal dictatorship, supported by the IRGC and a global superpower, can fall, then Khamenei’s regime is far from invincible,” he added.

The NCRI member noted that the regime’s reliance on war as a tool to suppress domestic dissent has backfired. Khamenei’s gamble on escalating regional conflicts—like the war in Gaza—intended to stave off protests, has only hastened internal fracturing.

Khamenei’s foreign policy rested on projecting dominance in the region through proxy forces. However, Aminolraya explained: “When Khamenei lost Syria, his so-called ‘resistance axis’ shattered. Hezbollah, the Houthis, and other proxies now face an emboldened opposition and dwindling Iranian support.”

The Path Ahead

The interview concluded with Aminolraya emphasizing the intertwined fate of Assad’s fall and the Iranian regime’s downfall: “This is not just a retreat; it is a testament to Khamenei’s failure in leadership. The IRGC’s debacle in Syria has exposed the regime’s vulnerability. When the suppressive apparatus weakens, uprisings gain momentum.”

He reiterated the NCRI’s belief that the only viable path to regime change lies in dismantling the IRGC and mobilizing resistance forces like the PMOI’s “Resistance Units” to challenge the regime’s stranglehold.

Aminolraya concluded: “The regime’s attempts to suppress dissent and maintain hegemony have failed. The fall of Assad is not just the end of a chapter but the beginning of the regime’s inevitable demise.”

This turning point, he asserted, has emboldened Iran’s resistance and galvanized the movement for change. The world, too, will be watching.