Three-minute speech
The Iranian regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s recent speeches highlight his increasingly precarious position following a series of strategic setbacks that have dealt heavy blows to his regime’s regional ambitions. His tone, marked by defensiveness and sharp rhetoric, suggests a leader struggling to maintain his grip amid waning morale within his power base.
Speaking today, December 22, Khamenei addressed a group of supporters, urging Syrian youth to rise against the newly established government in Damascus. “A strong and honorable movement must emerge in Syria to confront these new rulers,” he declared, adding, “The Syrian youth have nothing to lose. Their universities, schools, homes, and streets are unsafe. What should they do? They must stand firmly against those who have designed and executed this insecurity.”
This call to action comes after months of devastating setbacks, including the fall of Bashar al-Assad, a key strategic ally in Syria, and significant losses among the regime’s proxy fighters and leaders. The collapse of Assad’s government, which Khamenei attributed to a “joint plot” by the United States and Israel, has left Tehran’s position in the region severely weakened. Acknowledging the challenges, Khamenei’s foreign ministry has attempted to salvage ties, emphasizing continued relations with Damascus based on “mutual interests and international obligations.”
In a bid to counter numerous analysis from international leaders, analysts and media about his regime’s diminished influence, Khamenei vehemently denied accusations that his regime relies on proxy forces to project power in the region. “They keep saying that the Islamic Republic has lost its proxies in the region. This is another lie. The Islamic Republic does not have proxies,” he insisted. Instead, he framed groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and the Houthis as independent actors driven by their own convictions. “They fight because their beliefs compel them,” Khamenei claimed.
Khamenei Digs in As #Assad’s Fall Rattles #Tehranhttps://t.co/LW9OIi50Kp
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) December 11, 2024
Despite these assertions, Khamenei has previously extolled Iran’s “strategic depth” in countries like Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, referring to them as vital components of Iran’s regional power. In 2019, he instructed senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to maintain a “broad view of the geography of resistance” and warned against confining their ambitions to Iran’s borders.
However, cracks in this strategy are now apparent. Reports of weakened proxy forces, particularly in Iraq and Lebanon, have surfaced in recent weeks. Notably, Hezbollah’s Deputy Secretary-General Naim Qassem admitted that the fall of Assad had disrupted critical supply lines through Syria. Ali Akbar Ahmadian, the secretary of the regime’s Supreme National Security Council, also acknowledged that Tehran’s support for its proxies has become “more challenging.”
Khamenei’s recent speeches reveal his anxiety over the ripple effects of these defeats. He lashed out at Western governments, accusing the United States of meddling in Iranian affairs and fomenting unrest. “An American official said they will help anyone who stirs chaos in Iran. These fools think they’ve caught the scent of victory,” Khamenei sneered, adding, “The Iranian people will trample anyone who aligns with America under their feet.”
Khamenei Responds to #USElection2024 by Doubling Down on #Iran’s Strategic Direction and Succession Planshttps://t.co/hCsJfqj06X
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) November 8, 2024
His remarks also included thinly veiled threats against dissenters at home. Addressing what he called “fearmongering, divisiveness, and hopelessness” sown by critics, Khamenei warned that spreading negative analyses of the regime’s position was a “crime” that would not go unpunished. “Today, casting doubt is one of the enemy’s main strategies,” he said, urging his audience to combat this perceived threat.
Khamenei continues to attribute the fall of Bashar al-Assad, his ally in Syria, to a “joint plot” by the United States and Israel, refusing to admit that the Syrian people themselves ousted Assad. He has vaguely accused neighboring countries of playing a role in these events, further deflecting responsibility from the internal revolts against tyranny. Simultaneously, Tehran’s ability to mobilize and sustain its proxies has been further strained by domestic unrest. Despite the clear voices of the Iranian and Syrian people demanding his downfall, Khamenei remains steadfast in blaming external powers for orchestrating the unrest.
Khamenei’s rhetoric underscores the profound challenges facing his regime. In his remarks today, he referenced “an American official” supposedly promising support for unrest in Iran, but in recent days, no U.S. official has publicly made such a statement. However, Khamenei’s explicit refusal to publicly mention the PMOI since the 2019 uprising suggests that he might have been alluding to Senator Ted Cruz’s remarks at a December 11 Senate luncheon organized by Iranian Americans affiliated with the Iranian Resistance.
#Khamenei’s Post-Strike Address Exposes Fears of Regional Setbacks and Regime Insecurityhttps://t.co/CNStufiQYC
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 28, 2024
Senator Cruz declared, “Let me just say, change is in the air.” He continued, “Iran is weak. They are scared. And I will tell you, I, for one, have for a long time been quite willing to call unequivocally for regime change in Iran.” Cruz concluded his speech: “I’m going to close as I opened: Change is coming, and it is coming very soon.”
Khamenei’s crisis management mode and his increased public appearances and defensive rhetoric reflect a deep-seated fear that the popular uprising that ousted his ally Bashar al-Assad could have grave consequences for his forces both at home and across the region. The parallels between Syria and Iran—with widespread dissatisfaction and calls for regime change—loom large in Khamenei’s calculations. To counter this, he has intensified efforts to intimidate dissenters and those who expose his vulnerabilities, recognizing that further demoralization of his forces could accelerate his regime’s unraveling.