Four-minute read
On October 27, a day after Israel launched airstrikes on military targets inside Iran, the regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei took to the stage in a highly orchestrated public address, meeting with families of security forces killed in recent confrontations. This unusual display signaled what many interpret as mounting anxiety over his regime’s regional strategy and internal stability. Facing significant morale issues among his domestic and regional allies, Khamenei’s message reflected not only his concern over the societal anger directed at his regime but also a desperate attempt to underscore security, hoping to discourage his allies from drifting away.
Warning against insecurity
In a rare acknowledgment of domestic opposition, Khamenei implicitly addressed the “intense societal resistance” against his rule, saying, “When we understood the importance of security for the country, we realized that security must be protected—whether by the police, the Basij forces, or intelligence agencies…wherever there is no security, there is chaos. [In such an environment] one person causes trouble at the border, another causes trouble in the streets, and yet another causes trouble by spreading rumors.”
By painting this broad picture of “chaos,” Khamenei aimed to justify continued repression, even as millions of Iranians, particularly on social media, have expressed their disdain for the government, and local attacks on security forces have become increasingly common.
#Iranian Supreme Leader’s Speech Was A Desperate Attempt to Mask Weakness, Justify Crimes, and Warn of Infiltrationhttps://t.co/pZIhpwcg3f
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) September 26, 2024
Khamenei also attempted to counter voices within his ranks calling for a pullback from regional engagements, emphasizing, “Some analysts suggest that for the sake of security, we should avoid measures that provoke powerful nations. They say we don’t need long-range missiles, thinking this will keep the country safe. Their idea is that if you want safety, you must appear weak.” Khamenei added a historical warning, claiming, “Whenever our leaders in the past turned away from power-building, enemies dominated us.”
On the back of this rhetoric, Khamenei’s message seemed to greenlight a harsher approach to censoring and repressing dissent. He warned against “causing anxiety in the people,” blaming social media for “inducing fear, doubt, and unrest” through what he described as misguided analyses and false interpretations of events. According to Khamenei, the spread of unchecked information online could lead to widespread anxiety and mistrust—a scenario he seems intent on suppressing at any cost.
“Those connected to social media should pay attention to these matters. Not everything should be posted online,” he warned, adding that people should “consider the impact on the minds, thoughts, and morale of society.”
Responding by not responding
In response to Israel’s recent strike, Khamenei refrained from calling for vengeance or a direct counterstrike. He rather sought to project confidence in his regime’s ability to rally popular support, masking his deeper fears of social unrest that could threaten his hold on power. Referring to the attack, he said, “This latest act of hostility was a misstep on their part. They, of course, exaggerate its significance, which is a mistake, but underestimating it is equally wrong. Saying it was nothing and didn’t matter—this, too, is a mistake. The Zionist regime’s miscalculations need to be corrected. They don’t know Iran, its youth, or the strength, ingenuity, and resolve of the Iranian people. This is what we need to make clear to them.”
#Khamenei’s Friday Prayer Sermon Exposes #Iranian Regime’s Fears of Regional Strategy Collapsehttps://t.co/N4iMAAbqXp
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 4, 2024
Khamenei’s remarks also seemed carefully crafted to satisfy different political factions within his regime. By balancing his warning not to exaggerate or underestimate the Israeli attack, he effectively responded to both prevailing views within his regime. To those calling for immediate retaliation, Khamenei’s words signaled that their voices were being acknowledged, though he seemed keen to temper their rhetoric to avoid escalating media pressure. At the same time, he issued a subtle caution to factions urging restraint, signaling that any notion of retreat was off the table.
Yet, Khamenei deftly shifted responsibility for any future response to his officials, stating, “The specifics of what should be done must be determined by our leaders, who will decide what is in the best interest of the country and the people.”
By deflecting the burden of decision-making onto other officials, Khamenei avoided taking direct responsibility for a response. This tactic, often employed when he anticipates potential costs or repercussions, allows him to sidestep accountability while preserving his own image.
This approach reflects an apparent reluctance to escalate, as officials appear more inclined to manage the conflict through backdoor diplomacy or bold threats of producing a nuclear bomb. Recently, Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf hinted at a measured response, saying Iran’s answer would be “decisive, with due consideration.” At the same time, the regime’s President Massoud Pezeshkian added, “We do not seek war but will defend our rights,” signaling a desire to keep options open without commitment to immediate action.
#Iran’s Regime Grapples with Internal Crisis as Regional Tensions Mounthttps://t.co/Js19PiRiJ0
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 20, 2024
Desperate pledge
In another part of his speech, aimed at a broader audience, Khamenei shifted tones, calling for a global coalition against Israel. Once committed to eliminating what he termed an “illegitimate entity” from the earth, he now appeals for an international alliance. Khamenei declared, “A global coalition must be formed—a political, economic, and, if necessary, military coalition—against the malevolent Zionist regime, which today commits the most savage war crimes… Our demand of the world, especially the Islamic world, is to form a global alliance against the Zionist regime.”
It is clear from this rhetoric that Khamenei’s weakened stance reflects the troubled state of the Basij forces, the IRGC, and proxy militias who, funded by Iranian resources, now appear strained and diminished.
Having maintained his regime for three decades through domestic repression and international militancy, Khamenei has repeatedly warned that any retreat could lead to a chain of concessions ultimately resulting in his regime’s downfall. His speech underscored that, despite his evident concern over the diminishing effectiveness of these pillars of power, he remains unwilling to relinquish his survival mechanisms. Instead, he appears committed to finding new strategies to sustain his shrinking base and retain control.
Hence, as demonstrated over the past 45 years, the region will see neither peace nor stability as long as the clerical regime remains in power.