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The return of United Nations sanctions on Iran through the snapback mechanism in U.N. Resolution 2231 has triggered one of the sharpest crises in the history of the clerical dictatorship. With the Security Council’s failure on September 20, 2025, to extend sanctions relief, the countdown has begun for the automatic reinstatement of past measures. Inside Tehran, the development has brought admissions of diplomatic defeat, fierce factional disputes, and for the first time, explicit parliamentary calls to build nuclear weapons.
The official website of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei conceded Iran had lost at the UN. In a September 20 editorial titled Europe’s Dictation with America’s Copybook, it admitted that despite “considerable flexibility” shown by Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Cairo with IAEA chief Rafael Grossi, Europe pressed ahead with snapback. The rare acknowledgment underscored the collapse of Tehran’s latest effort to avert sanctions.
Factional Infighting Over “Nuclear Compromise” Exposes #Iranian Regime’s Deep Crisishttps://t.co/bYCijKZyGm
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) August 25, 2025
From JCPOA to Cairo: Dead Ends
The daily Kayhan called September 19, 2025, “the official death of the JCPOA” and “one of the most costly and fruitless diplomatic adventures in Iran’s history.” It argued that 22 years of talks, from 2002 to the Cairo accord of September 2025, delivered “nothing but humiliation and greed from the enemy.” For Khamenei’s camp—the Paydari Front, the IRGC, and allies around speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf—compromise equals collapse.
On September 31, more than 70 MPs signed a letter demanding a revision of Iran’s defense doctrine and openly calling for nuclear weapons. “Possessing a nuclear weapon is deterrence,” the letter stated, even while citing Khamenei’s 2010 fatwa against use.
Some MPs were more direct. Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardastani said: “It is better that we move quickly toward building a nuclear weapon.” Ahmad Ariayinejad asked: “Why should other powers have nuclear weapons but not the Islamic Republic?”
This rhetoric contradicts years of claims that Iran’s program was peaceful and highlights the regime’s belief that weaponization is the only shield against sanctions.
From Cairo Deal to Snapback: #Iran’s Power Struggle Goes Nuclearhttps://t.co/7IEvb6hTJR
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) September 22, 2025
Escalation Threats
Other figures echoed escalation. Hosseinali Haji-Deligani said withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty was under review and “not a mere threat.” Salar Valayatemadar insisted Iran would block ship inspections and continue arms exports despite sanctions. Mohsen Heydari of the Assembly of Experts accused Grossi of spying during the “12-day war” and dismissed renewed talks as “neither rational, nor honorable, nor dignified.”
Rivals around the revisionist camp linked to Hassan Rouhani and the late Ali Akbar Rafsanjani blame hardliners for the crisis. Abbas Abdi warned the regime’s president Masoud Pezeshkian not to go to New York without a clear mandate: “If you cannot resolve the issue in Tehran, your trip will bring nothing but loss.”
Mohammad Atrianfar suggested Pezeshkian could meet Donald Trump directly—“with Khamenei’s approval”—to break the deadlock. Kayhan mocked the idea as childish. For revisionists, diplomacy is survival; for Khamenei’s bloc, it is capitulation.
#Iran’s Nuclear Bluster After @UN Snapback: Rhetoric Masks a Regime in Declinehttps://t.co/VPzDhg0jTU
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) September 21, 2025
Fear at Home
The crisis has rattled security institutions. Revolutionary Guard commanders in Hamadan and Kurdistan canceled the annual September 22 military parades, citing “threats.” The rare cancellation underscored unease about both external attack and domestic unrest.
Meanwhile, messaging diverges: abroad, Araghchi told reporters Iran’s program remains peaceful and that “the only solution is diplomacy.” At home, MPs called for bombs and NPT withdrawal.
The snapback compounds deep economic stress. Economist Hossein Mahmoudi-Asl said the dollar has doubled in three years while prices for some goods rose 700 percent. “The spring of the dollar can be released at any moment,” he warned.
Regime outlets conceded the damage. Eqtesad24 wrote: “Only a fool would believe the snapback has no effect. Oil sales will become more difficult, and China will demand larger discounts.” Food importers warned of higher costs despite assurances of supply.
#Iran’s Cairo Agreement Triggers Factional Warfare and Exposes Khamenei’s Weakening Grip https://t.co/E69azy8DfH
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) September 17, 2025
Cracks in the Two-Language Strategy
Tehran’s two-language strategy—bravado at home, deceit abroad—is harder to sustain. Khamenei’s faction insists 22 years of talks were futile and demands nuclear weapons, while Araghchi pleads at the UN that Iran is “peaceful.” The contradiction is now written in parliament’s own letter: the regime’s elected body publicly endorsed the very weapon it once denied.
As snapback sanctions take hold, Iran’s rulers face a stark dilemma. Concessions risk internal collapse; escalation invites deeper isolation and economic pain. The canceled parades, collapsing currency, and open talk of bombs reveal a leadership shaken by defeat at the UN and uncertain of its path.