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Amid mounting military and diplomatic pressure, the Iranian regime’s ruling cliques are tearing each other apart over whether to pursue negotiations with the United States, extend the ceasefire, or double down on confrontation. Senior MPs and regime insiders have openly admitted the failure of past policies, warned that any ceasefire will invite new Israeli or American strikes by autumn, and even traded physical threats against those favoring talks — all while orchestrating nationwide “allegiance” rallies to prop up the embattled new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei.
The public fractures come as the regime grapples with leadership secrecy, economic collapse from sanctions and war damage, and deep divisions between extremists who see diplomacy as surrender and those pushing for a face-saving deal.“
If We Sign a Ceasefire, They Will Attack Again This Autumn
In a striking admission of strategic bankruptcy, hardline cleric and MP Hamid Rasaee told a parliamentary session on April 29, 2026: “If we sign this ceasefire, rest assured they will launch the next attack this very year — this autumn. We have military logic here. Negotiating with America is pointless… We told you all this during the JCPOA. The majority of representatives and prominent figures attacked us as if we were speaking against the golden calf of Samiri. They silenced us. But time and history proved us right. Nothing came out of the JCPOA pear. This war is the result of the JCPOA. This war is the output of the information that left the country because of the JCPOA.”
Rasaee went further, citing past ceasefires: “We experienced the military war too. We had a ceasefire in June, and in February they hit us harder — they martyred the Leader, destroyed more infrastructure. And today I tell you: if this ceasefire is signed, they will definitely attack again this autumn.”
Fellow hardliner MP Malek Shariati echoed the bellicose tone the same day, claiming the regime had sent stern warnings to adversaries: “We have sent firm messages through various channels that this time our new cards will be such that you will have to say goodbye to the region’s oil and gas for a long time… you will have to say goodbye to the region’s infrastructure.”
Shariati insisted war damage was “less than sanctions” and called for full reparations “to the last rial,” citing Supreme Leader orders to seize or inflict equivalent losses.
"Deepening internal divisions within Iran’s ruling establishment have come into sharp focus in late April 2026, as officials, lawmakers, clerics, and state media openly clash over war strategy and #negotiations with the United States," writes @HakamianMahmoud.…
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) April 29, 2026
“Ignore Rumors About Mojtaba Khamenei”
In a television appearance broadcast April 30, 2026, former IRGC commander and Mojtaba Khamenei’s military advisor Mohsen Rezaee directly addressed widespread rumors about the new Supreme Leader’s health and whereabouts — rumors the regime itself acknowledges have spread widely.
Rezaee urged the regime’s base: “Do not listen at all to the rumors about the Leader of the Revolution or the armed forces. The Leader of the Revolution, as God has willed it, is a very energetic young man. These rumors are fabricated so that either he reacts or his entourage reveals his location, and the Mossad and Israel can find and strike him.”
Rezaee then issued a direct military threat to the United States: “If America wants to test itself again, we are fully prepared. We will capture a large number of you and sink your warships… Do not come any further.”
The remarks, delivered while attempting to project strength, instead underscored the regime’s paranoia over leadership vulnerability and its reliance on threats amid battlefield setbacks.
"While the executive apparatus desperately signals a willingness for dialogue to stop the #economic bleeding, military commanders and their legislative allies double down on regional blackmail, explicitly tying the crisis to the blockade of the #Strait_of_Hormuz," writes…
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) April 24, 2026
Signature Scandal Exposes Fake Unity Behind Pro-Negotiation Statement
Adding to the chaos, regime media itself revealed blatant inflation of support for Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf and the negotiation team. On April 29, 2026, state-linked outlet Fararu reported a 140-signature discrepancy: official claims initially boasted 256 MPs had signed a statement backing the negotiation team and Ghalibaf, but MP Hossein Samsami publicly corrected that only 116 had actually signed by 9 a.m. that day. Samsami himself refused to sign, citing “reservations” in the text.
In an even more incendiary outburst the same day, MP Mohammad-Taghi Naghdali openly threatened physical violence against advocates of talks: “We will destroy the houses of those who set up the humiliating negotiation table over their heads.”
The threat was so extreme that the regime’s own newspaper Jomhouri Eslami publicly rebuked Naghdali, warning that “in today’s society there is no room for extremists’ posturing.”
"While the military and economic stalemate over #Hormuz continues to bleed the global economy, the only path that has ever truly threatened the brutal theocracy is an internal, society-driven unraveling," writes @MasumehBolurchi.https://t.co/g7804cnDe7
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) April 27, 2026
Staged “Allegiance” Rallies Mask Deep Crisis
On April 29, the regime rushed to hold choreographed rallies from Imam Hossein Square to Azadi Square in Tehran and across other cities, with participants waving placards and chanting allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei. State media and the judiciary’s chief executioner posted messages of “renewed pledge of allegiance” to Mojtaba Hosseini Khamenei. IRGC-affiliated outlets claimed “massive” crowds and simultaneous events in every province.
Despite the regime’s frantic state-staged rallies, blaring headlines proclaiming unity, and loud declarations of allegiance to Mojtaba Khamenei, the clerical dictatorship’s accelerated pace of executing political prisoners and its brutal nationwide crackdown on citizens expose a regime more vulnerable than ever — one that dreads a society constantly on the lookout for any opportunity to erupt into open revolt.