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Iran’s economy is staggering under the weight of soaring inflation, collapsing infrastructure, and deepening poverty. But this isn’t the result of foreign pressure alone—it’s the direct consequence of decades of plundering, corruption, and security-first policies by the clerical regime.
State media now openly admit the scale of the economic crisis. Prices of essential food items are rising at an unsustainable pace. The price of lamb has surged from 980,000 tomans to over 1.1 million tomans per kilo in just one month. Chicken, a staple protein for middle-income households, now costs 109,000 tomans per kilo—a 12% increase that forces many families to strike it from their diets. Even lentils and beans, once considered the last refuge for the poor, have become scarce. In February alone, pinto beans experienced 153% inflation—an alarming sign of food insecurity taking root.
Behind the numbers lies a story of policy failure. Under the slain president Ebrahim Raisi, the regime launched a series of so-called “economic driver” projects intended to revive the industrial sector. Spearheaded by Vice President Mohammad Mokhber, these 48 mega-projects were billed as a $17 billion investment in Iran’s future. Yet, as Jahan Sanat reports, the plans were based on flawed assumptions and unrealistic funding models. One year later, the government failed to publish any detailed progress report, with physical completion hovering at just 22%.
#Iran News: Shargh Daily Warns of Impending “Bread Uprising” Amidst Economic Collapsehttps://t.co/fxXKTuIfMC
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) April 1, 2025
In reality, these “driver projects” functioned more as public relations tools than viable economic strategies. Lacking transparency and driven by officials with little macroeconomic expertise, they forced state-affiliated mining and petrochemical firms to reallocate their retained earnings to state-directed projects. These companies, already under pressure from sanctions and inflation, now face additional burdens, without any clear roadmap or return on investment.
Meanwhile, systemic exploitation continues at the local level. In Ardabil, MP Ahad Biouteh recently revealed that the Social Security Organization collected 125 billion tomans from local residents last year without adding a single new construction worker to the insurance rolls. “Are you saying you insured only 125 people in five years?” he asked in Parliament. In the same speech, he criticized the agency for prioritizing punitive inspections over providing services, calling out the absurdity of demanding fees in a city where winter temperatures drop below −25°C, leaving many workers jobless.
#Iran’s Economic Collapse and Social Unrest Looming in 2025https://t.co/zN1eMj0Spm
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) March 18, 2025
Adding to the public’s frustration is the government’s plan to cut up to 18 million people from the list of subsidy recipients. Officials claim this will remove the top three income deciles, but critics warn the criteria are opaque and will likely punish vulnerable families. While this policy could free over 5 trillion tomans per month, there’s no transparency on how the money will be used—or whether it will be used at all to relieve the economic pressure on the lower classes. As Siasat Rooz points out, the broader “economic transformation plan” that was supposed to accompany subsidy reforms—covering taxation, banking, and customs—remains untouched. The easy part (cutting subsidies) was implemented; the hard parts (reforming corrupt institutions) were shelved.
This situation has sparked warnings from regime lawmakers. On April 20, multiple MPs used the Parliament floor to express fears about a looming uprising. “Every day, prices go up, but incomes stay the same. People are tired of hearing empty promises,” said MP Ezatollah Habibzadeh. MP Hamed Yazdian warned of water shortages and collapsing agriculture, while Biouteh described the regime’s banking system as a “mafia” funneling provincial resources into unproductive central projects.
These aren’t signs of a deliberate failure—they are the predictable results of a system hollowed out by corruption, inefficiency, and a security-centered worldview that treats economic justice as an afterthought. The regime has not planned its collapse, but through its own actions, it is rapidly engineering the conditions for one.