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Amid record levels of economic contraction, energy breakdown, and public infrastructure failure, Iranian state officials and regime-affiliated media are issuing increasingly stark warnings about the country’s trajectory. Their statements, many issued in the past 72 hours, depict a society under extraordinary pressure — while quietly seeking to deflect blame and alert the clerical leadership to the risk of explosive unrest.
On April 16, Minister of Energy Abbas Aliabadi described Iran’s electricity situation in blunt terms: “Today we are in an extraordinary situation — a situation that has continued for several years.”
He revealed that due to drought and mismanagement, hydroelectric output had collapsed:
“Of 12,500 megawatts of hydroelectric capacity, last year about 5,000 to 6,000 megawatts were usable, but now we cannot even use 2,000”.
Aliabadi asked citizens to “prepare and cooperate” — a clear sign that blackouts will intensify this summer.
Despite Minister Aliabadi’s warnings of electricity shortages, the regime’s crisis in the energy sector is largely self-inflicted — driven by chronic underinvestment, refusal to adopt daylight saving policies, widespread corruption, and the diversion of electricity for IRGC-run bitcoin mining farms and illicit energy exports used to bypass sanctions for profit.
#Iran’s Economic Instability: A Chronological Perspectivehttps://t.co/MTqcCUM9k6
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) March 7, 2025
Payam Bagheri, Vice President of the Chamber of Commerce, added that the economic cost of last year’s power outages was immense: “The loss caused by electricity cuts in the industrial sector last year was approximately 170 trillion tomans.”
Meanwhile, the regime’s failure to address decades of environmental mismanagement — including the destruction of wetlands, unregulated industrial activity, and neglect of sustainable land use — has turned seasonal dust storms into public health emergencies, with state television reporting the closure of schools, banks, and offices in at least seven provinces on April 15 due to hazardous air quality.
On April 14, Commander Ahmadreza Radan of the State Security Forces admitted to the lethal consequences of neglect in Iran’s transportation infrastructure, stating, “Some of our vehicles are death wagons — like the bus that overturned in Kerman during Nowruz, killing 14 people,” highlighting the regime’s long-standing failure to enforce safety standards or modernize the country’s aging public transport fleet.
#Iran’s Economic Collapse and Social Unrest Looming in 2025https://t.co/zN1eMj0Spm
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) March 18, 2025
He admitted that vehicle infrastructure does not meet the demands of long-haul travel:
“If a vehicle is to travel long distances, it must have strong columns.”
Industry data confirms a synchronized collapse across the economy. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for the Iranian economy fell to 48.7 in Esfand 1403 (March 2025) — indicating contraction for the fourth consecutive month, according to a report by Jahan-e Sanat. The data shows: “Declines in production, new orders, and raw material inventory reflect supply and demand contraction driven by currency volatility, soaring input costs, and falling consumer purchasing power.”
It also notes a drop in employment: “Many businesses have stopped hiring due to poor outlooks and financial constraints, while rising living costs have reduced worker willingness to accept current wages.”
#Iran News: Shargh Daily Warns of Impending “Bread Uprising” Amidst Economic Collapsehttps://t.co/fxXKTuIfMC
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) April 1, 2025
In a separate analysis on April 17, Donyaye Eghtesad labeled 1403 (March 2024- March 2025) “the worst year for industry”, citing: “Declines in both output and sales compared to 1402… despite seasonal expectations for recovery.”
It attributes this to a toxic mix of: “Exchange rate instability, energy shortages, and persistent liquidity crisis.”
While these statements might appear to be acknowledgments of failure, their intent is more strategic than apologetic. Regime-aligned media such as Kayhan — closely guided by the regime’s Supreme Leader’s office — wrote this week that the country must adopt an “economic war footing.”
“The Islamic Republic is under a full-scale hybrid war. Solving economic problems requires wartime resolve and identifying domestic sabotage networks that manipulate currency and gold markets,” the April 16 editorial stated.
Weaponizing #Poverty: How #Iran’s Clerical Regime Uses Economic Hardship to Maintain Controlhttps://t.co/ggRKvUa5EY
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) March 14, 2025
This framing is not a call for reform, but a mobilization directive aimed at regime insiders.
In truth, the regime’s functionaries and media mouthpieces are not airing these crises out of transparency or remorse. Rather, they are issuing internal warnings — on the one hand, to shield themselves from accountability for a system they helped entrench, and on the other, to signal that unchecked deterioration could spark a new wave of unrest.
The memory of the November 2019 uprising — when a sudden fuel price hike led to days of nationwide protest and state violence — looms large over these alarmist tones. In that revolt, the regime cut internet access and reportedly killed over 1,500 protesters. Today, with electricity failing, inflation deepening, and basic services collapsing, officials appear desperate to avoid a repeat — not by fixing the system, but by alerting those at the top to its breaking point.