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UPDATE: 1:00 PM CET
Report to Congress on Iran
In 2024, the Islamic Republic of Iran faced military and strategic setbacks, largely at the hands of Israel and the United States, that appear to dramatically diminish the advantages and leverage Tehran had built up through years of investment. Blows to Iranian regional partners like Lebanese Hezbollah and the former Asad regime in Syria, as well as the underwhelming performance and uncertain future of Iran’s once-vaunted ballistic missile program, suggest that Iran’s leaders may no longer be able to rely as much on these traditional asymmetric methods of Iranian power projection. In their stead, the Iranian government could seek to bolster its position and deter further U.S. and Israeli actions by other means, including the potential weaponization of Iran’s nuclear program or attempts to engage with the incoming U.S. Administration. Iran and the United States do not have formal diplomatic relations and have largely acted antagonistically since the Iranian Revolution of 1979 but have periodically participated in bilateral or multilateral negotiations. Opposition to the United States and its regional influence has been a defining feature of the Islamic Republic’s identity and ideology since its establishment.
Anonymous Fighter Jet Targets Former Centre of The Iranian Revolutionary Guards
Deir Ezzor province: An anonymous fighter jet targeted former positions and centers of the Iranian Revolution Guards in Al-Qoriya Desert eastern of Deir Ezzor, causing the destruction of these positions.
Al-Qoriya Desert had witnessed an extensive presence of Iranian forces and their factions.
On December 29, an “anonymous” drone carried out two airstrikes on an unknown target in the Western Desert of Al-Dawir Town in eastern Deir Ezzor countryside, coinciding with the flight of drones and warplanes over the area.
UPDATE: 8:00 AM CET
Iranian Political Prisoner Saeed Masouri Warns of Escalating Executions as He Spends 25th Christmas Behind Bars
In a harrowing letter from Iranian political prisoner Saeed Masouri, now in his 25th year of incarceration, he recounts the relentless suffering and escalating executions under the Iranian regime. Masouri, who wrote the letter on the occasion of Christmas, shares the heart-wrenching memories of lost cellmates and the psychological scars of living under the constant threat of death, highlighting the human cost of a regime that executes one person every four hours on average.
This letter, addressed to international human rights authorities, including the UN Human Rights Council, the UN Secretary-General, and the UN Special Rapporteur on the Human Rights Situation in Iran, calls for immediate and effective action. Masouri, who is currently incarcerated in the notorious Ghezel Hesar prison, urges global leaders to go beyond statements of concern and impose binding conditions on diplomatic and political interactions with Iran to halt this “killing machine.” He appeals for the case of Iran’s human rights violations to be referred to the UN Security Council, stressing that every moment of inaction enables more bloodshed.
The Unbridgeable Gap Between Iran’s Regime and People
What is the main challenge between the people of Iran and the ruling regime? The core issue lies in the fundamental conflict between the needs and demands of the people and the structure, policies, and nature of this regime. This deep divide stems not only from managerial decisions or executive policies but from the regime’s inherent nature and philosophy, which presents itself as a totalitarian ideology. This ideology, along with all its political, social, economic, and regional outputs, has now reached a deadlock and failure.
On December 25, Etemad newspaper explicitly described the regime’s arrival at a thick wall of deadlock: “Iran today faces a multitude of complex, intertwined, and structural crises. These crises require fundamental changes in policymaking, structural reforms in the economic, social, and cultural systems, and a redefinition of power relations and governance.”
Iran’s Regime in A State Of “Coma” As It Fails to Address The Country’s Most Basic Problems
On Monday, Iranian regime president Masoud Pezeshkian, after a meeting with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, provided a report in an impromptu interview with state television that warrants reflection. According to Khamenei’s remarks, the meeting addressed the regime’s concerns, ranging from inflation and rising prices to the value of the national currency, from poverty alleviation and people’s livelihood challenges to internal regime conflicts and political issues. However, Pezeshkian’s response to a specific question about the energy crisis was shocking.
Pezeshkian said, “You see, the first step was when we discussed this with the Leader. The second time I came, I noticed that he had reduced the lighting in his room by half. He said, ‘Look, we reduced the lighting by two levels! This is very important because if everyone in the country turns off two of their lights and lowers the temperature by two degrees, we can allocate the money saved to livelihoods, jobs, wages, and wheat…’.” Pezeshkian continued in this vein, simplifying the solutions to everything—from completing the Astara-Rasht railway to wage reforms and controlling inflation—by merely turning off two lights and lowering home temperatures by two degrees.
The Crumbling Facade of Iran’s “Resistance Axis”: Implications for Regional and Domestic Politics
A growing wave of despair is sweeping through those who once believed in the invincibility of the so-called “Resistance Axis”—an alliance led by the Iranian regime in the Middle East. This sense of disillusionment is palpable both inside and outside Iran, signaling a critical juncture for the regime and its supporters. The regime of Bashar al-Assad, long considered a cornerstone of the Resistance Axis’s strength, has been a symbol of Iranian influence in the region. However, Assad’s collapse has not only diminished Iran’s regional clout but also emboldened its rivals. For followers of the Iran regime’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, this development has exposed serious flaws in their strategic calculations. What was once seen as a meticulously planned strategy now appears overly optimistic, sparking a crisis of confidence in Khamenei’s leadership.
Fuel Smuggling: A Hidden Source of Revenue for Iran’s Regime
Fuel smuggling from the borders of Sistan and Baluchistan province has become a significant source of income for some Iranian regime institutions. Reports indicate that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) plays a crucial role in this illicit activity, transferring millions of liters of fuel daily to neighboring countries, particularly Pakistan and Afghanistan. The revenue generated from this smuggling funds military expenditures and advances weapons projects, including the construction of missiles and drones.
Energy industry analysts and regional security experts have revealed to the Washington Post in recent years that the fuel smuggling network is orchestrated by Iranian regime elements, notably the IRGC and private shipping companies based in Persian Gulf countries. The IRGC reportedly enforces strict control over maritime borders and port facilities to dominate this lucrative trade. When unauthorized individuals attempt to profit from fuel smuggling, the IRGC often intervenes to eliminate competition.
Wave of Iranian Student Migration: A Historic Surge in Numbers
The Iranian news agency IRNA recently reported a remarkable rise in the number of Iranian students studying abroad. Citing an immigration analyst, the agency revealed that, as of 2024, the number of Iranian students in ten major international destinations has reached 110,000, reflecting an 82% increase since 2020. Bahram Salavati, a prominent immigration analyst, highlighted a notable shift in the preferred destinations for Iranian students. According to Salavati, the number of Iranian students abroad has “crossed a historic and sensitive threshold.” This milestone underscores evolving trends in international student migration and marks a departure from traditional patterns.
Stoning Sentences for Female Inmates in Iran, Hunger-Striking Prisoners Expose
On Tuesday, December 31, 2024, the final day of the Gregorian calendar year, Iranian prisoners participating in the “Tuesdays Against Executions” hunger strike campaign marked the 49th week of their protest against the widespread and escalating use of the death penalty in Iran. In their statement, the hunger-striking prisoners revealed the issuance of stoning sentences for several female inmates in the Qarchak Prison in Varamin. This shocking revelation adds another layer to the regime’s systematic use of brutal punishments.
Over the past week, the Iranian regime reinstated the death sentence for political prisoner Mojahed Kourkouri, a decision previously overturned. It decreed that amputations—part of their barbaric penal code—could now be performed with anesthesia. This chilling directive aims to normalize cruelty under the guise of judicial procedure.
Christian Convert Sentenced to Prison and Flogging for Flouting Hijab Rule
Ghazal Marzban, a Christian convert imprisoned in Tehran’s Evin Prison, has been sentenced by the Iranian judiciary to six months in prison and 74 lashes for “failure to observe mandatory hijab.”
The 41-year-old woman from Lasht-e Nesha, Gilan Province, was convicted by Branch 26 of Tehran’s Revolutionary Court. Her charges include “propaganda against the state” and “appearing in public without observing the hijab.”
Sources reveal that one-third of the prison sentence will be enforced, and the remainder will be suspended under supervision for five years, accompanied by a prohibition on using telephones.
A Look at The Most Notable Political Events Related to Iran in 2024
It is evident that the survival strategy of the Iranian regime faced its most significant blows in the past year. The following developments highlight this claim:
January 3, 2024: A bombing in Kerman killed at least 103 people during a ceremony commemorating the assassination of Qassem Soleimani.
January 15, 2024: The IRGC launched ballistic missiles and drones targeting Erbil in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, killing four and injuring five. A missile was also fired at a target in Aleppo province, Syria.
January 20, 2024: An Israeli airstrike on a building in Damascus, Syria, killed five IRGC members, including Commander Sadegh Omidzadeh.
Intensified Overcrowding and Dire Conditions in Ghezel Hesar Prison in Iran
Reports indicate that Iran’s Prisons Organization plans to transfer 1,200 inmates from the central prison in Karaj to Ghezel Hesar Prison, a move that will further exacerbate the critical conditions in this facility. This transfer, reportedly aimed at exploiting prisoners as labor, has been heavily criticized by human rights activists. Ghezel Hesar Prison, located near Tehran, currently houses a population far beyond its capacity. Rooms designed for 9 to 12 beds now accommodate 15 to 20 people, forcing many inmates to sleep on the floor or in hallways. Even the prison’s mosques repurposed as accommodation spaces, are filled with 50 to 60 people.
This prison, notorious for its dire sanitary conditions and poor facilities, houses between 400 and 600 inmates in each ward, many of whom struggle with drug addiction. Additionally, some prisoners suffer from serious illnesses such as HIV and lack adequate access to medical care. The absence of proper ventilation and unsanitary conditions have created an unbearable environment for the inmates.
FATF: A New Wave of Infighting Among Iranian Regime Factions
The renewed discussion about reviewing the remaining FATF bills in the Guardian Council, reportedly approved by Khamenei according to Pezeshkian, has increased tensions between factions within the clerical regime.
The Iranian Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance announced that Khamenei had agreed to revisit the FATF-related bills in the Guardian Council. Amid a significant surge in Iran’s currency exchange rate since the second term of Donald Trump’s presidency, Abdolnaser Hemmati posted on X, quoting Masoud Pezeshkian, that Khamenei had approved the review of the Palermo and CFT bills.
On Tuesday, December 31, 2024, during a meeting with members of the Iranian Chamber of Commerce, Pezeshkian indirectly referred to Khamenei’s decision, stating that there had been a resolution to reexamine the bills. He emphasized that addressing the country’s issues is not solely the government’s responsibility, urging heads of other branches of power to work toward overcoming existing obstacles.
Berlin, December 31, 2024: MEK Supporters Highlight Iran’s Human Rights Violations in Exhibition
Berlin, Germany—December 31, 2024: On the eve of the new year of 2025, supporters of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) held a photo exhibition and book display to shed light on human rights violations in Iran. The event focused on the country’s dire human rights situation, with particular attention to the plight of political prisoners facing death sentences.
Paris Exhibition on December 31, 2024 Backs Iranian Revolution, Condemns Regime’s Human Rights Abuses
Paris, France—December 31, 2024: On the eve of the new year of 2025, supporters of the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) hosted an exhibition showcasing photographs and books to demonstrate solidarity with the Iranian Revolution and condemn the regime’s growing use of executions.