An op-ed published in El Independiente on January 6, 2025, argues that the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s 54-year regime in Syria reveals the profound vulnerabilities of Iran’s clerical regime. Authored by Firouz Mahvi, a member of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI) Foreign Affairs Committee, the piece asserts that Assad’s collapse signals a turning point for the region and marks a critical blow to Tehran’s regional influence.
A Strategic Collapse
For over four decades, Tehran invested heavily in Syria, using it as a strategic hub to bolster its proxy networks, such as Hezbollah, and to project regional power. According to Mahvi, Iran poured billions into military infrastructure and demographic engineering, forcibly displacing populations to consolidate control. Despite deploying over 100,000 Revolutionary Guards and affiliated forces in Syria by 2017, Iran failed to save Assad’s regime, revealing significant weaknesses in its military and strategic capabilities.
Mahvi highlights how the disorganized retreat of Iranian regime forces during Assad’s collapse—particularly in Aleppo—laid bare the declining operational capacity and morale of the IRGC. The withdrawal of over 30,000 Iranian-backed fighters undermined Tehran’s long-held image as a dominant force in the Middle East.
#IRGC's Failures in Syria Shows Its Inability to Save Khamenei in #Iran, NCRI Member Sayshttps://t.co/fzu781w7af
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 5, 2025
Khamenei’s Waning Hegemony
The op-ed describes the regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s strategy of exporting conflict to mask domestic unrest as increasingly unsustainable. Tehran’s costly involvement in Syria drained resources and left the regime vulnerable to growing dissent at home.
“The Iranian regime’s legitimacy has never been rooted in popular support but in coercion,” the article notes, emphasizing how Assad’s fall destabilizes the fragile foundation of Khamenei’s rule. The decision to escalate regional conflicts, such as Khamenei’s ill-fated involvement in the October 7 war, is portrayed as a desperate gamble that backfired spectacularly, highlighting Tehran’s inability to manage the fallout.
Hope for the Iranian People
Assad’s fall has significant psychological and strategic ramifications for Iranians, the op-ed argues. For decades, the regime flaunted its alliance with Syria as a symbol of its regional dominance. Now, Assad’s collapse illustrates Tehran’s vulnerability, emboldening Iranians to envision a future free from oppression.
#Iran’s Strategic Collapse Evident in Syria’s Fall,” Reports #Russian Mediahttps://t.co/Y783NOcd1X
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 2, 2025
The article also credits the NCRI and the People’s Mojahedin Organization’s Resistance Units within Iran for amplifying hope among the populace. It describes how the opposition is leveraging the regime’s weaknesses to rally public support for democratic change. Protest slogans like “Death to the oppressor, whether Shah or Supreme Leader” underscore a rejection of all forms of tyranny and a push toward reform.
Global Implications
The fall of Assad is not merely a regional development but a global inflection point, the op-ed argues. It dismantles a cornerstone of Iran’s regional strategy and exposes the clerical regime to intensified domestic and international pressure. Mahvi concludes: “The swift collapse of Assad’s regime underscores that the Iranian mullahs are far from invincible. It emboldens the Iranian people to envision a future free from oppression and tyranny.”
As Tehran faces increasing challenges, El Independiente asserts that the regime’s days are numbered, likening its current position to the Shah’s regime before its 1979 collapse. The op-ed paints a vivid picture of a regime on the brink, with its declining influence hastening its eventual downfall.