In an interview with Dideban-Iran, state-affiliated sociologist Ardeshir Garavand issued grave warnings about the increasingly volatile state of Iranian society. Highlighting systemic corruption, economic inequality, and blocked pathways to a normal life, Garavand explained how these factors are driving the nation toward unrest and potential revolt. His remarks come amid recent high-profile incidents, including the fatal shooting of two senior judges, which underscores the dangerous intersection of societal despair and systemic failure.
“When legitimate pathways are open, people can escape poverty through effort and skill,” Garavand stated. “But when injustice, corruption, and the labyrinth of political connections dominate, individuals become desperate and resort to violence. Some revolutions occur precisely when people are denied access to legitimate means of achieving a normal life.”
This analysis aligns with the recent shooting of two notorious judges, Ali Razini and Mohammad Moghiseh, who were involved in executing thousands of Iranian political prisoners as well as ordinary people. While the judiciary framed the perpetrator—a ten-year employee vetted through the regime’s rigid loyalty checks—as a “hostile infiltrator,” the circumstances suggest deeper societal roots. Garavand’s remarks resonate with the broader implications of this incident, particularly in a society where, as he warns, individuals “who cannot see a legitimate way out of poverty are easily turned into tools for others’ purposes or driven to acts of desperation.”
2024 was marked by mass boycotts of sham elections, a leadership crisis after key figures' deaths, and failed attempts to rally public support, exposing the regime’s growing fragility.
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– Parliamentary… pic.twitter.com/rPLwYjTlz9— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 1, 2025
Garavand rejected the notion that poverty alone drives violence. “Poverty in itself is not a producer of violence,” he emphasized. “However, poverty combined with the closure of legitimate pathways to escape it becomes a dangerous catalyst. It is the denial of hope and fairness that fuels unrest and leads to violence. When people are systematically denied justice, their actions—however extreme—are often framed as a pursuit of justice.”
Garavand also delivered a pointed critique of the shrinking middle class, which he described as the backbone of social stability. “The middle class, when pushed into poverty, becomes more rebellious than others,” he warned. “Those who once had stable lives but now find themselves unable to meet basic needs are often the most enraged. When this stabilizing force disappears, society becomes fragmented and more prone to chaos.”
He elaborated on the role of the middle class as a stabilizing force in society. “The middle class is the bridge between the rich and the poor. They are the facilitators, the stabilizers. When they disappear, the infrastructure for social welfare and community support collapses. A society without a strong middle class becomes increasingly unstable.”
#Iran News: State Media Warns of “Revolution of the #Hungry” Amid Widening Inequality in Iranhttps://t.co/hzQQJZMlsb
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) November 26, 2024
Garavand’s analysis ties the risks of societal collapse directly to the regime’s inability to address systemic corruption and inequality. “When injustice and inequality become entrenched, individuals begin to justify their actions as a means of achieving justice,” he explained. “Revolts are not born out of poverty alone—they emerge when poverty is combined with systemic injustice and the closure of legitimate avenues for change.”
As the clerical regime intensifies its domestic suppression in response to its strategic failures abroad, warnings from within its ranks are growing in frequency and urgency. An increasing number of regime insiders and state-affiliated experts are cautioning the leadership that its current approach risks igniting widespread unrest—unrest so profound that no level of repression will be able to contain it.