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The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has laid bare the clerical dictatorship’s deep-seated fears, as evidenced by its recent statements and actions. While Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei attempted to project confidence in his December 11 speech, his repeated warnings against dissent and threats to media outlets revealed a regime increasingly insecure about its stability. The developments in Syria have not only disrupted his regional ambitions but have also triggered panic in Tehran over potential domestic repercussions.
Mohammad Jafar Montazeri, the regime’s Chief Justice, sought to dismiss comparisons between Iran and Syria but revealed underlying anxieties. “The Islamic Republic of Iran is not comparable to the Syrian government. However, we must not underestimate the enemy, as their malice can engulf all the countries of the region,” he said. His subsequent threat against dissenters betrayed the regime’s unease: “Those who fan the flames of the enemy’s propaganda in cyberspace will be dealt with severely.”
This fear has manifested in a crackdown on domestic voices. The Judiciary has summoned insiders, including former parliamentarians Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh and Bahram Parsaei, state-affiliated journalist Marzieh Mahmoudi, and political analysts such as Ali Khosrowani, Sadegh Zibakalam, Mohammad Mohajeri, Fayyaz Zahed, and Ali Abdi, along with several Telegram channel operators. They stand accused of “spreading false information” and “disrupting public morale.” According to Tabnak, the Tehran prosecutor’s office has opened cases against these individuals, a move widely seen as a desperate attempt to suppress criticism of the regime’s foreign policy following Assad’s fall.
Khamenei Digs in As #Assad’s Fall Rattles #Tehranhttps://t.co/LW9OIi50Kp
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) December 11, 2024
Khamenei himself acknowledged the regime’s vulnerability, declaring, “Some act against us with foreign Persian-language media, and they must be confronted differently, but no one inside the country should do such a thing.” Head of the Judiciary Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei further emphasized the need for “continuous monitoring” of social media, ordering security forces to counter what he called “psychological operations” designed to undermine public trust in the regime.
Religious leaders also betrayed their unease in public statements. Ahmad Alamolhoda, Khamenei’s representative in Mashhad, admitted to “anxiety-inducing” events in Syria and condemned those spreading despair. “Some sick-hearted individuals are trying to spread hopelessness regarding the power of the resistance,” he said, dismissing fears that a similar fate would await the clerical regime in Iran.
However, Allahnoor Karimi-Tabar, Friday prayer leader in Ilam, offered a more candid reflection of the regime’s fears. He criticized Assad’s decision to distance himself from Iran, stating, “If Bashar al-Assad hadn’t turned his back on the Islamic Republic and fallen for America’s false promises, this calamity wouldn’t have befallen the oppressed people of Syria.” He warned Iranian officials against complacency, adding, “The ultimate target of these schemes is the Islamic Republic. If we lose time, regret will be futile.”
Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf admitted to the fallout, describing Assad’s collapse as causing “disruption in the logistical network of Iran’s regional forces.” While claiming that Hezbollah could adapt to the new conditions, Ghalibaf acknowledged that Syria’s failure to heed Iran’s warnings had resulted in “internal chaos.” He warned that Iran would face “significant challenges” if it failed to act decisively in the rapidly shifting regional landscape.
Meanwhile, IRGC Commander Hossein Salami downplayed the strategic loss but revealed a defensive posture. “Some in political and intellectual circles are spreading the idea that Iran has lost its regional influence, but if we were weak, we wouldn’t be conducting operations like True Promise,” he argued. Salami also criticized expectations that Iran should have fought on behalf of Assad, calling such demands “illogical.”
These statements and actions demonstrate a regime increasingly paralyzed by fear. The Iranian leadership is acutely aware of the parallels between Syria’s revolution and its own precarious domestic situation. They cannot ignore that in Syria, a smaller but disciplined, well-trained, and cohesive rebel force defeated a much larger, better-equipped, and professionally trained Syrian army. This outcome starkly underscores the vulnerability of regimes reliant on repression and external proxies, a reality that looms over Tehran.