In a defiant broadcast on state-controlled television on June 27, the Iranian regime’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Abbas Araqchi openly threatened Europe after Tehran’s parliament voted to ban cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and suspend inspections following recent Israeli–U.S. airstrikes on its nuclear sites.
Araqchi accused Britain, France, and Germany of plotting to reactivate the UN sanctions “snapback” mechanism under the 2015 nuclear deal, warning that such a move would mark “the greatest historical mistake of Europe,” effectively eliminating European influence in the international sanctions’ architecture.
Under fierce domestic pressure, Tehran is charting a confrontational new direction: cutting voluntary ties with the IAEA and halting oversight, all while insisting they remain open to diplomacy only if it respects Iranian “national interests.” Araqchi emphasized that any decision on inspections will be made in accordance with newly passed legislation and based on evaluations from the regime’s Supreme National Security Council.
Iranian regime's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, concedes today on state-run television that the damages to the nuclear sites are "extensive and serious." pic.twitter.com/vC6v09rRW5
— Alireza Jafarzadeh (@A_Jafarzadeh) June 27, 2025
Key Developments:
- On June 25, 2025, the Majlis (parliament) approved a law suspending cooperation with the IAEA. The legislation mandates that any future collaboration must be cleared by the Supreme National Security Council, placing all inspection access under political control.
- The Guardian Council quickly ratified the bill, giving it full legal and constitutional force. This makes the suspension of IAEA cooperation binding under law.
- Officials confirmed that all IAEA inspections have effectively ceased, citing damage to nuclear facilities from the Israeli–U.S. airstrikes. Iranian authorities claim the agency’s demand to visit bombed sites is an attempt to assess the extent of the damage — which Tehran refuses to allow.
- Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has echoed the regime’s defiance, warning against further IAEA engagement and dismissing European efforts to revive inspections as “politically coercive.” Araghchi also criticized Grossi’s request to inspect bomb-damaged nuclear sites, describing it as unacceptably hostile.
#Iran News: @UN Security Council Warns Tehran's Nuclear Activity Poses Global Threathttps://t.co/ZRaz8iwCNq
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 26, 2025
Tehran Trapped Between Crisis and Collapse
The regime finds itself at a critical impasse. The strikes that devastated key nuclear facilities and killed numerous senior IRGC commanders have left Tehran both militarily bruised and politically cornered. On one hand, the regime fears that overt confrontation with the international community could trigger a tightening diplomatic and economic noose, risking further internal instability and a nationwide uprising. On the other, even contemplating renewed talks with the U.S.—a country directly involved in bombing its nuclear assets—risks projecting capitulation and weakness to both allies and adversaries.
Internally, the regime is fractured. Competing factions are pressuring Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei from opposite ends: some warn that backing down signals defeat and will accelerate popular unrest, while others claim that refusing diplomacy courts further isolation and downfall. Both sides, however, agree on one point—the wrong move could hasten the regime’s end.
Domestically, the pressure is mounting. Rival factions within the regime are locked in a deadlock: some insist that any concession signals defeat and could embolden the population to rise up, while others argue that refusing diplomatic de-escalation will only deepen the regime’s isolation and hasten collapse.
Yet amid these fractures, one reality dominates the regime’s calculations: despite its recent blows, it cannot afford to back down from the nuclear issue. The regime sees its nuclear project not only as a strategic deterrent but as a pillar of its survival. Thus, rather than showing genuine flexibility, Tehran has chosen a path of defiance—using threats, blackmail, and regional destabilization in a bid to restore the previous balance of power. This is a regime wounded, but preparing to revive and rebuild its nuclear program once the immediate shock subsides.
#Iran’s Regime Scrambles to Mask Defeat, Control Fallout After Ceasefirehttps://t.co/qC7wxMACAf
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 26, 2025
What’s at stake
The snapback mechanism—allowing Britain, France, or Germany to restore comprehensive UN sanctions lifted under the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA)—offers Europe a pivotal choice. It can seize the unprecedented moment of a weakened and destabilized regime to finally neutralize Iran’s nuclear threat, or it can fall for Tehran’s grandiose posturing and once again throw the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism a lifeline.