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As the October 2025 deadline for the activation of the UNSC 2231 snapback mechanism approaches, the Iranian regime is growing increasingly desperate, resorting to threats, deception, and diplomatic maneuvering in a bid to prevent the full restoration of international sanctions. Faced with mounting pressure from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Western powers, Tehran is attempting to stall for time while making veiled threats of nuclear escalation and regional destabilization.
Iran’s Threat to Withdraw from the NPT
Iranian officials have openly threatened to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) should the snapback mechanism be triggered. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei, in a press briefing on January 20, warned that if Western powers invoke the mechanism, Iran would have no justification to remain in the NPT. “Our response will be proportional and reciprocal,” he declared, signaling a dramatic escalation should sanctions be reinstated.
This stance was echoed by the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission, which, according to Kayhan newspaper, discussed the possibility of withdrawing from the NPT as a retaliatory measure. The threat underscores Tehran’s growing anxiety over the potential collapse of its nuclear strategy and the re-imposition of crippling sanctions.
#Iranian Regime’s Posturing During Grossi’s Visit Aims to Avert IAEA Resolution Amid Snapback Mechanism Fearshttps://t.co/EnhA42z2EV
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) November 17, 2024
Tehran’s Attempts to Buy Time Through Diplomacy
While issuing threats, Tehran is simultaneously pursuing diplomatic maneuvers to delay any definitive action against its nuclear program. The state-controlled Shargh Daily reported that Iran is hoping to “buy time” by postponing the IAEA’s comprehensive report on its nuclear activities, giving it a final opportunity to negotiate before snapback sanctions are triggered. Analysts quoted in the article warned that Iran is rapidly approaching a “point of no return” unless a last-minute diplomatic compromise is reached.
The pro-regime Ebtekar News further outlined Tehran’s strategy, suggesting a temporary “limited revival” of the JCPOA as a means to de-escalate tensions and delay punitive measures. This would involve short-term commitments from Iran in exchange for postponing the snapback decision, effectively giving the regime more time to advance its nuclear program while avoiding severe consequences.
Iran’s Growing Defiance of the IAEA
At the same time, Iran has intensified its obstruction of IAEA monitoring efforts. In a move condemned by the EU and the U.S., Tehran recently blocked the designation of four additional experienced IAEA inspectors, further limiting the agency’s oversight. The IAEA has repeatedly warned that the regime’s continued accumulation of highly enriched uranium and installation of advanced centrifuges pose significant proliferation risks with “no credible civilian justification.”
NCRI Statement:@Maryam_Rajavi: Board of Governors’ Resolution Insufficient, Snapback Mechanism and #UNSC Referral Necessaryhttps://t.co/lwP9o0m48o
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 5, 2024
Iran’s refusal to cooperate with the agency was highlighted in the latest EU statement at the IAEA Board of Governors, which described Iran’s nuclear advances as “deeply concerning” and reiterated that Iran is the only non-nuclear weapon state systematically producing and stockpiling highly enriched uranium. The report also confirmed that Iran is producing one significant quantity of 60% enriched uranium per month—an amount that could potentially be diverted for nuclear weapons production.
Regime-Backed Media Pushes a Narrative of Western Weakness
The Iranian regime’s desperation is further reflected in its state-run media, which has adopted an aggressive stance against Western powers. The IRGC-affiliated Tasnim News Agency claimed that “the E3 countries (France, Germany, and the UK) are in no position to activate the snapback mechanism.” This argument reflects Tehran’s attempts to undermine the credibility of the mechanism despite its legal validity under UNSC 2231.
Meanwhile, the Shargh Daily speculated that IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi may soon make another visit to Iran in a final effort to negotiate a deal before the next Board of Governors meeting. The article warned that if no agreement is reached, “the summer of 2025 may witness one of the most severe diplomatic crises over Iran’s nuclear program.”
The Iranian regime not only refuses to cooperate with the agency but also actively disrupts its verification processes.
the initial step to prevent a terrorist and belligerent regime from acquiring an atomic bomb is to activate the snapback mechanism and ensure the full… pic.twitter.com/5wcJ1PkPJ4— Maryam Rajavi (@Maryam_Rajavi) December 1, 2023
A Regime Running Out of Options
With only months remaining before the snapback deadline, Iran’s leadership faces a narrowing set of options. Its threats to leave the NPT, obstruct IAEA inspections, and provoke diplomatic crises all point to a regime that is running out of leverage. However, these tactics also risk further alienating potential allies such as China while solidifying European and American resolve to hold Tehran accountable.
Despite its bluster, Iran’s leadership appears to recognize the peril it faces. Reports from inside the regime acknowledge that without a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough, the snapback mechanism will be activated, unleashing a new wave of sanctions.