Four-minute read
In the fragile aftermath of the 12-day war with Israel, the clerical dictatorship ruling Iran is lashing out in multiple directions—internally and externally—with a strategy that combines mass repression, orchestrated paranoia, and aggressive rhetoric aimed at reshaping regional dynamics on its own terms. Beneath the defiance lies a deeply unstable regime, burdened by military losses, internal dissent, economic collapse, and diplomatic isolation.
At the heart of the regime’s survival strategy is the invocation of “espionage” as a catch-all charge—used to justify swift executions, mass arrests, and the detention of foreign nationals, in what critics describe as a calculated campaign of “hostage diplomacy.” According to regime’s judiciary spokesperson, Asghar Jahangir, foreign nationals—identified only as “European citizens” allegedly linked to Israel—have been arrested in several provinces, accused of “collaborating with the enemy.” He added, “We will deal with traitors and sellouts without leniency,” and emphasized that judiciary chief Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei had ordered “extraordinary” trials for crimes such as treason, espionage, and betrayal.
#Iran's Regime Tightens Grip with Harsh New Espionage Law https://t.co/EPfTqGQrbS
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) July 1, 2025
The enemy inside
This crusade on so-called spies has already claimed multiple lives. As reported by multiple sources, three Iranian Kurdish laborers were executed within 48 hours of the ceasefire, accused of spying for Israel’s Mossad. Human rights defenders vehemently disputed these claims. One activist told ABC, “This is a very corrupt regime and there is no legal process in Iran. These men had no access to classified information, and they were denied fair trials.”
The judiciary’s sudden acceleration of death sentences is widely seen as an attempt to preempt unrest. The human rights organizations have reported that over 1,600 individuals have been arrested since the war began, with over 98 foreign nationals detained under charges ranging from illegal entry to espionage. Social media accounts and activists point to brutal treatment in custody, including threats of collective executions. One source described over 200 Iranians arrested for acts as minor as ‘celebrating’ or ‘walking near military sites.’
According to Amnesty International, these trials and executions are part of a broader state policy to use capital punishment “as a tool of control and intimidation.”
The regime’s obsession with infiltration has extended to digital space. Jahangir said courts will also target “accounts that collaborated with the enemy,” and praised what he called “public informants who reported dissidents.” Simultaneously, parliament is fast-tracking laws that would classify “media cooperation” with Western outlets as “corruption on Earth,” a charge punishable by death.
#Iran Regime Shaken by Ceasefire Fallout, Fear of Unrest Mountshttps://t.co/iL8tM2lRNd
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 30, 2025
Meltdown
Yet even as it clamps down, the regime’s messaging reveals an unsteady hand—desperate to shift blame outward, while showing signs of internal rupture. Key officials have acknowledged how close the war came to breaking the system.
Ali Larijani, senior adviser to the Supreme Leader, admitted on state television: “Their plan was to eliminate the heads of the state, and then come for the leadership.” He said 18 senior IRGC commanders were killed in the opening strikes. Larijani himself claimed to have received a death threat: “A man called and said I had 12 hours to leave Tehran, or I’d meet the same fate as [General] Shahid Baqeri.”
Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaee took aim at the West, accusing the IAEA of complicity and France of “providing Israel a pretext for aggression.” He warned: “Negotiation with such an approach is meaningless… They must answer for their role in this war.”
In a letter to the UN, Iranian officials demanded the Security Council label Israel and the United States as initiators of war and hold them financially liable for reparations.
#Iran’s Regime Struggles to Mask Post-War Weakness with Rhetoric and Repressionhttps://t.co/ITcBED4e0M
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 28, 2025
Aggression to hide desperation
Meanwhile, other regime figures cast blame inward. Deputy Parliament Speaker Abbas Araghchi bluntly stated: “We must assume a war footing in all sectors—defense, economy, culture. There is no trust in the enemy.”
Esmaeil Kowsari, a senior IRGC officer and MP, told a pro-regime outlet: “We are not in a ceasefire. This is a temporary halt. The war could resume at any moment.” He went so far as to boast that Iran pre-warned the U.S. through Qatar before attacking their airbase—a sign of political calculation and an eagerness to retain plausible deniability on the international stage.
But beneath these theatrics lies a terrified power elite, acutely aware of its vulnerability. As the former intelligence interrogator turned media activist Abbas Abdi—writing in the regime-linked Etemad newspaper—put it: “What is different from before the war is our perception of the future. Even state agencies can no longer plan beyond daily survival.” He questioned the logic behind the regime’s actions: “Why was a ceasefire accepted if war would resume? What ideas are on the table to prevent this? The people have a right to know.”
#Iran’s Regime Scrambles to Mask Defeat, Control Fallout After Ceasefirehttps://t.co/qC7wxMACAf
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 26, 2025
Multidimensional worries
The fears are not just political. The Iranian rial has collapsed, breaching 90,000 to the dollar, while the stock market hemorrhaged nearly 200,000 points in three days. This financial meltdown, coupled with military losses and growing unrest, has left the regime clutching for control by any means.
This is why, observers note, repression has become not just a tactic—but the regime’s primary instrument of survival. Mass executions, mass arrests, threats of collective punishment, internet crackdowns, and xenophobic rhetoric all form a wall against an explosion that officials clearly see coming.
The most telling indication of this came from Ali Agha-Mohammadi, a member of the regime’s Expediency Council, during the funeral of an IRGC commander: “Today, we are caught between two games—one of conspiracy, and the other of negotiation. The enemy trained 50,000 spies over ten years. If anyone feels fear, do not let it in. We must show mercy to one another.”
It is an unusual appeal to unity in a fractured system that, for decades, ruled by fear, not solidarity.
#Iran’s Regime Responds to Military Losses with Repression and Belligerencehttps://t.co/xZNoIoYUWi
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 25, 2025
Fractures resurface
While regime propaganda, cyber-army trolls, and foreign-based lobby groups push the narrative that “Iranians have rallied around the flag,” the regime’s brutal crackdown in the post-war period tells a very different story.
Every arrest, every execution, and every new grievance deepens the rift between a clerical dictatorship that has betrayed its own people—siphoning national wealth into foreign adventurism—and a society increasingly suffocated and outraged. Rather than fostering internal cohesion, the war has accelerated the regime’s isolation both at home and abroad.
Figures like Mahmoud Sadeghi and Masoud Pezeshkian have called for “national unity” and “rebuilding social capital,” but critics see this as opportunism. These same individuals were complicit—or silent—during the crackdowns of 2019 and 2022. Many Iranians refer to them as “phony reformists” seeking a lifeline as the foundations of the regime erode.
This post-war moment has revealed not resilience, but systemic fragility. What remains of state power is upheld by executions, propaganda, and the silencing of dissent. In attempting to cover its military and political failures, the regime has turned inward—on its citizens, on its own commanders, and on the illusions it once used to project strength.
As one activist wrote on social media: “The regime thinks it can scare the people into silence again. But this time, it’s not the same Iran. The war may have ended, but the fire inside society has just begun.”