Three-minute read
The clerical regime ruling Iran finds itself increasingly besieged by crises, both at home and abroad, with its nuclear impasse and recent developments in Syria compounding internal tensions and disagreements within the regime. Official statements from high-ranking officials reveal fears of regional isolation, escalation in conflict, and the looming threat of renewed sanctions that could worsen the economic crises and inflame social unrest.
Recent escalations in Syria, particularly in Aleppo, have heightened concerns among Iranian officials. Abbas Araqchi, the regime’s Foreign Minister, acknowledged the severity of the situation, stating, “Every day, we face new plots in the region. Today, in addition to our other enemies, we are contending with the presence of Takfiri terrorist forces.”
The killing of IRGC Brigadier General Pourhashmi in Aleppo further underscored the dangers facing the regime’s forces and their allies. Ghorbanali Dorri-Najafabadi, a representative of the regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, highlighted the growing threats during the Friday prayer sermon in Arak. “These [insurgents] have a grave enmity with the Islamic Republic,” he said. The Jaish al-Nusra killed Pourhashmi during their attacks in Aleppo. At our eastern borders, Jaish al-Adl is taking advantage of every opportunity. Our people must increase their vigilance tenfold.”
#Iran News: Officials and Analysts Reveal Regime’s Deep Anxiety Over Developments in #Syria and Lebanonhttps://t.co/JttsD0V3Pr
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) November 30, 2024
On November 29, Ahmad Alamolhoda, a representative of Khamenei in Mashhad, slammed internal critics who push the regime’s Supreme Leader to change his regional doctrine: “Some are murmuring, ‘Why should we engage in war? Why did we enter this arena when it’s just two neighbors fighting each other?’ First, the Supreme Leader declared that the ‘Storm of Al-Aqsa’ cannot be extinguished. Israel must be destroyed. The ‘True Promise 3’ operation remains intact, and we will take revenge on Israel under any circumstances.”
Alamolhoda also criticized ongoing negotiations with European countries, expressing skepticism over their value. “Why should we negotiate now? You’ve seen the West’s stance on the JCPOA. Since 2018, what commitments have they honored? Why negotiate for a Board of Governors statement?”
The state-run Kayhan newspaper linked recent Syrian developments to broader strategic challenges for Tehran. It highlighted the ongoing “Sedition of Aleppo,” describing it as an attack on Iran’s capabilities. “The resistance axis, our allies, and our friends are under attack. Over the past couple of days, Iranian personnel have been martyred in Syria. The ultimate goal of this new war is Iran itself.”
As November 2019 Uprising Anniversary Nears, #Iran’s Regime Lacks Regional Escape Route Amid Brewing Unresthttps://t.co/47ljcBOcCE
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) November 14, 2024
The daily whose editorial guidelines are usually directed by the Supreme Leader’s office, added, “Not long before the ceasefire in Lebanon, leaders of certain reactionary Arab states delivered a message to Bashar al-Assad, likely originating from the West. They falsely claimed that Hamas and Hezbollah were finished. They promised Assad complete reconstruction of his country and guarantees for his and his family’s safety—if he abandoned Iran. When Assad conveyed these messages to one of Iran’s envoys, the envoy was astonished by the frankness of the Arab leader’s approach. Assad did not fall for it… What has begun in Syria today could be a result of rejecting those promises. The first step in dealing with the adversary—even if it involves negotiation—is understanding them. With such a treacherous and sworn enemy, is negotiating not the height of naivety?!”
The battles inside Syria were further analyzed by Fararu website, which reported a significant offensive by a coalition of opposition groups in Aleppo. Described as “the largest rebel attack in recent years,” the operation has resulted in strategic territorial gains, threatening to alter the balance of power in the region.
#Khamenei’s Post-Strike Address Exposes Fears of Regional Setbacks and Regime Insecurityhttps://t.co/CNStufiQYC
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 28, 2024
As European nations push for the reactivation of UN sanctions under the “snapback” mechanism, Iran’s official rhetoric has grown increasingly defiant. Javan Online, a publication affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), warned of potential consequences. “Araqchi stated clearly that the return of UN sanctions could push the nuclear discussion inside Iran toward developing nuclear weapons,” the outlet threatened.
The convergence of domestic dissatisfaction, strategic setbacks in Syria, and the potential reactivation of international sanctions have left Iran’s regime grappling with mounting pressure on multiple fronts. With officials publicly voicing fears of regional encirclement and internal dissent, the clerical regime faces an increasingly precarious future.
