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Ali Larijani, a senior advisor to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, recently traveled to Syria and Lebanon amid heightened regional tensions. His mission, framed as a gesture of support for Iran’s allies, has been widely interpreted as a damage-control effort following major setbacks in the clerical regime’s regional strategy.
State media, including ISNA (November 16), portrayed Larijani’s trip as a demonstration of Iran’s “high-level commitment” to regional stability. State-affiliated political analyst Morteza Maki claimed Larijani’s message to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri was a reminder that Tehran’s decisions reflect its highest authority, not merely its government. However, this narrative appears designed to obscure Iran’s waning influence amid geopolitical shifts in the Middle East.
The timing of Larijani’s visit coincides with critical developments challenging Iran’s influence:
- Lebanon’s Fragile Ceasefire Efforts: Lebanese leaders, including Speaker Nabih Berri, are reportedly advancing discussions on implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for Hezbollah’s disarmament and a return to Lebanese state sovereignty. The prospect of Hezbollah being forced to cede its armed presence south of the Litani River threatens a core pillar of Iran’s so-called “Resistance Axis.”
- Syrian Drift Toward Arab States: Reports of Bashar al-Assad leaning toward closer ties with Arab nations have raised concerns in Tehran about losing its strategic foothold in Syria. Iran’s attempts to reassert influence through Larijani underline these fears.
- Israeli Retaliation and Escalation: Larijani’s visit coincided with intensified Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon and Syria, targeting key Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad figures. These attacks have exposed the vulnerabilities in Iran’s regional network of proxies.
Leaked document exposes #Iranian regime's financial support for #Syria. What are the implications of Billions of dollars squandered to prop up #Assad's regime?https://t.co/z4Ol9DSoHd
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 11, 2023
Larijani, in his public remarks, claimed Iran supports “peace and stability” in Lebanon and Syria, distancing Tehran from accusations of meddling. Speaking to reporters, he insisted, “We are not here to disrupt anything; we seek solutions.” (Tejarat News, November 16). Yet his emphasis on conditional backing for Lebanese decisions—”whatever the Lebanese authorities and Resistance accept, we support”—reflects Iran’s anxiety over losing its grip on Hezbollah’s political and military autonomy.
Iran’s state-controlled outlets have sought to downplay these vulnerabilities. Khabar Online (November 16) suggested Larijani’s trip aimed to “reassure allies of Iran’s continued support.” However, analysts, including Ahmad Zeidabadi, argue that Tehran is grappling with a strategic crisis. The evolving situation in Lebanon, coupled with Assad’s potential pivot, could significantly undermine Iran’s regional posture, a key component of the regime’s survival strategy.
Larijani’s trip underscores the clerical regime’s growing desperation as regional developments expose the fragility of its ambitions. While Tehran’s media apparatus attempts to project strength, the cracks in its regional influence are becoming harder to conceal. The apparent shift in the Middle East’s political landscape signals a turning tide, leaving Iran’s leadership scrambling to salvage its diminishing leverage.
