2024 was a year marked by significant challenges for the Iranian regime, culminating in a notable defeat for the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, both regionally and domestically. The regime faced a convergence of internal dissent, economic instability, factional infighting, strategic setbacks, and international pressures, all of which edged it closer to potential regime change. The following comprehensive analysis outlines the key developments that characterized this critical year:
Key Political and Social Events
February 11, 2024 – Anniversary of the 1979 Revolution
The regime’s attempts to mobilize mass participation in rallies for the anniversary of the 1979 Islamic Revolution fell flat, signaling a growing disconnect between the state and its citizens. This event marked the beginning of a year filled with strategic failures for Khamenei. Early in 2024, the regime’s Supreme Leader initiated a campaign emphasizing the importance of elections, urging his supporters to utilize the ballot box as a means to counteract “the enemies.”
Sham Parliamentary Elections – March 1 and May 10, 2024
The sham parliamentary elections were characterized by widespread boycotts, with voter turnout reported at an official 30% nationwide and 15% in Tehran. However, independent assessments indicated participation rates as low as 8.2%, highlighting public disillusionment with the regime’s governance.
Leadership Crisis – May 19, 2024
Ebrahim Raisi played a pivotal role in Khamenei’s survival strategy, focusing on consolidating the regime, implementing the Supreme Leader’s directives across domestic, regional, and international arenas, and advancing succession plans. The March 1st Council of Experts election was expected to serve as a critical platform, potentially positioning Raisi as its new head.
However, the deaths of the regime’s president Ebrahim Raisi, and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian in a helicopter crash created a power vacuum that exacerbated factional disputes. This incident dealt a significant blow to Khamenei’s efforts to consolidate power and maintain stability within the regime.
How to Target the Head of the Snake in #Iran?https://t.co/26dk1YsW6O
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) April 3, 2024
Sham Presidential Election – June 28, 2024
The subsequent presidential sham election saw Masoud Pezeshkian emerge victorious amid accusations of widespread fraud and manipulation. Official figures claimed a 60% voter abstention rate, while sources within the domestic network of the People’s Mojahedin Organization (PMOI/MEK) reported a participation rate of 9%. The presidency of Pezeshkian further deepened divisions within the regime. Faced with the possibility of exacerbating these divisions, Khamenei was compelled to make compromises with rival factions. He feared that backing his preferred candidate might further alienate his adversaries, potentially driving them to join the widespread nationwide boycott and destabilize his regime even more.
The cabinet of Pezeshkian dubbed the “Unity Government,” became a flashpoint of conflicting interests among the regime’s hostile ruling factions. Pezeshkian’s administration raised expectations among all factions but failed to satisfy any of them. Elements close to Pezeshkian’s rival, Saeed Jalili, who had minimal influence on government formation yet controlled a significant portion of the Parliament, emerged as the most vehement critics of the executive branch throughout the year.
Bottom line: the Iranian people’s resounding rejection of the regime compelled Khamenei to concede, fracturing and weakening his own establishment. This decisive “no” not only exposed the regime’s internal fragility but also underscored its illegitimacy and lack of social support on the regional as well as the global stage.
NCRI Commentary | Why Firmness Will Prevent War with Iran
How can the world address the Iranian regime’s enduring terrorist agenda without igniting a full-blown conflict in the volatile Middle East?@amsafavi #Iran #BlacklistIRGC https://t.co/1skwBq45QI— NCRI-U.S. Rep Office (@NCRIUS) January 17, 2024
Terrorism and Strategic Setbacks
The year 2024 began with domestic analysts of the clerical regime viewing the October 7, 2023, attacks as a demonstration of Tehran’s strength and a strategy to foster unity among its rival factions. The setbacks suffered by groups supported by the Iranian regime in Palestine were not a major source of concern for Tehran.
On April 1, an Israeli attack on the Iranian regime’s consulate in Syria led to the deaths of Brigadier General Zahedi, a senior commander of the Revolutionary Guards in Syria, his deputy Brigadier General Mohammad Hadi Haji-Rahimi, and seven Quds Force officials.
On July 31, Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’ political office who was in Tehran to attend Masoud Pezeshkian’s inauguration ceremony, was killed in an attack attributed to Israel. The Iranian regime promised retaliation, a stance that heightened internal divisions and raised the specter of regional conflict.
Appeasement’s Peril: West and #Tehran Teeter on the Brink of Military #Escalationhttps://t.co/l7QZVYAkY3
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 3, 2024
Loss of Key Allies
On September 17 and 18, thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by commanders and senior forces of Hezbollah in Lebanon exploded. The blasts injured over 3,000 senior Hezbollah commanders and killed more than 40. This attack effectively paralyzed the regime’s most equipped and organized proxy force in the region, significantly diminishing its operational capabilities.
An Israeli strike in the southern suburbs of Beirut on September 20 significantly weakened Hezbollah’s command structure by killing Ibrahim Akil, the commander of the elite Radwan Force, and at least a dozen combatants.
On September 27, an airstrike resulted in the death of Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezbollah and a pivotal figure within the Iranian regime’s proxy forces. Nasrallah, regarded as the most influential leader following the death of Soleimani, was considered irreplaceable by Tehran. In response to his death, Khamenei declared five days of mourning, highlighting his significance compared to the three days observed for Soleimani in January 2020.
On December 8, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was overthrown in a popular uprising, significantly undermining a crucial component of Tehran’s regional strategy. The uprising led to the loss of billions of dollars in investments, dozens of IRGC Quds Force command centers, and a strategic route to Lebanon. This setback was compounded by the regime’s inability to counter Syrian rebels, resulting in thousands of demoralized proxy forces and IRGC members fleeing to Iraq or being evacuated by Russia.
Decoding the #MiddleEastCrisis: Target the Root of #Terrorismhttps://t.co/oQjgIIQvZu
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 9, 2024
International Isolation
On January 18, Pakistan launched deadly strikes on alleged separatist militant hideouts in Iran, escalating border tensions between the two neighbors. The Iranian regime remained silent after Pakistan’s retaliatory airstrike, exposing the regime’s vulnerabilities and reliance on diversionary military actions to mask internal weaknesses.
On February 8, Meta removed the Instagram accounts of Ali Khamenei, citing violations of its “Dangerous Organizations & Individuals policy,”
On February 2, Canada deported Majid Iranmanesh, a director general at the Iranian regime’s Vice-Presidency for Science and Technology. On March 20, Canada’s Immigration and Refugee Board (IRB) ordered the deportation of Salman Samani, Iran’s deputy minister of interior. Baqer Ardeshir Larijani, a former high-ranking official in Iran’s Ministry of Health, was expelled in early July 2024. Additionally, on June 19, the Canadian government formally designated the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization.
On July 24, Germany conducted raids on 53 properties associated with the Iranian regime and Lebanese Hezbollah, including the shutdown of the Islamic Center in Hamburg. Subsequently, on August 29, Mohammad Hadi Mofatteh, the former head of the Islamic Center of Hamburg, was ordered to leave the country. Following the execution of dual-national Jamshid Sharmahd in late October, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock ordered the closure of three Iranian consulates and called for the European Union to designate the IRGC as a terrorist organization.
On April 11, Argentina’s highest criminal court ruled that the regime in Iran was responsible for the 1994 AMIA bombing, declaring it a “crime against humanity” and Iran a “terrorist state,” advancing accountability for the attack.
On May 14, the EU broadened its sanctions framework targeting the Iranian regime’s military support for Russia’s war in Ukraine. This expansion sanctioned individuals and entities involved in supplying missiles and drones to Russia, as well as those undermining peace in the Middle East.
On July 20, the EU established a new framework for restrictive measures, prohibiting the export of components used in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to Iran.
Behind Regional Aggression, #Iran Conceals an Underlying Internal Perilhttps://t.co/EktfmSNhGL
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 30, 2024
On September 10-11, the United States, in coordination with the UK, France, and Germany, imposed sanctions on the clerical regime. These included travel bans and asset freezes on individuals and organizations linked to ballistic missile and drone supply chains supporting Russia’s military efforts.
On October 14, the EU Foreign Affairs Council initiated additional sanctions against Iran, including restrictions on three Iranian airlines, notably Iran Air, due to their involvement in military logistics for Russia.
On October 25, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) announced that the Iranian regime remains on its “high-risk jurisdictions” blacklist, underscoring mounting global concerns over Tehran’s persistent deficiencies in combating money laundering and terror financing.
On November 18, the EU and the UK further tightened sanctions, expanding the ban on exporting components that could be used in drone and missile production. New restrictions were placed on Iranian airlines, including sanctions on logistics operations tied to military activities.
On November 21, the IAEA Board of Governors censured Iran for its continued lack of cooperation regarding its nuclear program, stating that Iran has not provided the necessary transparency to ensure that its nuclear activities are peaceful.
On December 6, the IAEA Director-General Rafael Grossi said that Tehran is “dramatically” increasing enrichment up to 60% purity, close to the roughly 90% needed for a nuclear weapon.
On December 12, Britain, France, and Germany told the United Nations Security Council that they are ready – if necessary – to trigger a so-called “snap back” of all international sanctions on Iran, accusing it of stockpiling highly enriched uranium.
On December 19, the U.S. Treasury Department sanctioned individuals, companies, and vessels linked to Iran’s air and shipping industries, targeting networks supporting terrorism and regional destabilization.
After its significant failure in the region, the mullahs’ regime has accelerated its program to build #nuclear weapons to avoid being overthrown. Therefore, it is urgent to activate the Snapback mechanism of the @UN Security Council Resolution 2231. The only way to prevent a… pic.twitter.com/YGB1KfNnqZ
— Maryam Rajavi (@Maryam_Rajavi) December 19, 2024
Economic Meltdown
In 2024, Iran faced severe gas shortages, power outages, currency depreciation, soaring inflation, crippling industries, and escalating food insecurity. A deepening housing crisis and deadly air pollution added to the turmoil. Widespread protests and growing public outrage underscore the nation’s precarious state, with mounting socio-economic pressures threatening to spark a large-scale uprising.
Gas Shortage Crisis
Throughout 2024, especially in the summer and winter, Iran’s gas shortages severely disrupted daily life and industrial operations, despite the nation holding the world’s second-largest natural gas reserves. Widespread power outages forced authorities to implement rolling blackouts and temporarily close schools, banks, and public institutions across multiple provinces. Key industries, including steel and petrochemicals, faced significant operational disruptions, with industrial output dropping by 30-50%, resulting in tens of millions of dollars in losses.
Power Outages
In 2024, Iran experienced severe power outages, particularly during the peak summer months of July and August, and again in November and December as winter approached. These blackouts were primarily attributed to a combination of factors, including increased electricity demand due to extreme temperatures, underinvestment in energy infrastructure, and notably, the substantial energy consumption by unauthorized cryptocurrency mining operations. The IRGC has been implicated in operating large-scale, unlicensed Bitcoin mining farms, exploiting the national power grid to generate revenue amidst international sanctions. This clandestine activity has exacerbated the strain on Iran’s already fragile power infrastructure, leading to significant disruptions in daily life and economic activities. According to the state-run website Donya-e-Eqtesad, the daily losses caused by power outages in industries and the production sector were valued at 5,843 billion tomans in 2023 prices. At today’s rates, this amounts to approximately 8,000 billion tomans, equivalent to $110 million per day.
Marking #Iran’s 2017 Uprising: Worsening Socio-#Economic Conditions Drive Renewed Calls for Rebellionhttps://t.co/6jJBAIdtLq
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) December 27, 2024
Freefall of Iran’s Currency
As of December 2024, the Iranian rial has experienced a significant depreciation against the U.S. dollar, reaching an all-time low of approximately 82,050 tomans per dollar. This represents a substantial decline from December 2023, when the rial traded at around 50,000 tomans per dollar. This depreciation has severely impacted the Iranian populace, eroding purchasing power and escalating the cost of living. In response, many Iranians are converting their savings into more stable assets, such as foreign currencies, gold, or cryptocurrencies, to preserve value. The economic instability has also led to increased unemployment and business closures, further diminishing household incomes and exacerbating financial hardships across the nation.
Inflation Crisis
In 2024, Iran’s official annual inflation rate declined from 37% in May to 32.5% in December. However, economists like Steve Hanke estimated the actual rate to be more than double these figures. This persistent inflation severely eroded citizens’ purchasing power, driving many to convert their savings into more stable assets such as foreign currencies, gold, or cryptocurrencies. With over 80% of consumer spending directed toward necessities, families were forced to cut back on essential goods, significantly compromising their well-being and quality of life.
Housing Crisis and Land Hoarding
Massive land hoarding by regime-affiliated elites exacerbated housing shortages and inequality, underscoring systemic corruption. In December 2024, housing prices in Tehran experienced a significant increase compared to the same period in 2023. For instance, an 80-square-meter apartment in the 13 Aban neighborhood was listed at approximately 3.3 billion rials, equating to about 41.25 million rials per square meter. In contrast, in December 2023, similar properties in Tehran averaged around 30 million rials per square meter. This represents an approximate 37.5% increase in housing prices over the year, exacerbating the housing affordability crisis for residents. By March, the average price per square meter in the capital reached approximately 82 million tomans (around $1,340). Given that the average monthly net salary in Iran is approximately $276, it would take a wage earner over a century to afford even the smallest residential unit.
Watch and judge how this former #Iranian official (who happens to be the son of former regime's president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani) warns the state's leadership against #IranRevolution pic.twitter.com/dAS7ewKL8M
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) December 28, 2023
Surge in Basic Commodity Prices
In 2024, Iran experienced significant price increases in essential commodities, notably bread and red meat, severely impacting citizens’ daily lives. Despite government claims to stabilize bread prices through subsidies, the cost of bread surged by approximately 66% over several weeks, intensifying economic strain on the public. Similarly, the domestic supply of red meat declined by 11% year-on-year in October, prompting the government to remove tariffs on meat imports in an effort to stabilize domestic prices. These escalating prices have led to reduced consumption of protein-rich foods, diminishing caloric intake and adversely impacting public health. The rising cost of staple foods has exacerbated food insecurity, particularly among vulnerable populations, leading to increased malnutrition and related health issues.
The Toll of Air Pollution on Iranian Lives
In 2024, air pollution remained a severe public health crisis in Iran, claiming approximately 50,000 lives annually, according to Health Minister Mohammadreza Zafarghandi. The financial cost of air pollution was estimated between $12 billion and $20 billion, exceeding Iran’s projected annual oil revenue of $11 billion for 2025. The hazardous air quality in cities like Tehran has led to a surge in hospitalizations for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, significantly straining healthcare systems.
The convergence of economic and financial crises, compounded by a relentless brain drain, the exodus of health experts and skilled workers, environmental degradation, severe natural disasters, medicine shortages, land subsidence, soaring unemployment, and mounting social pressures, has driven the populace to the brink of public outrage. This simmering discontent manifests daily in widespread protests and sporadic acts of violence against security forces, signaling the potential for an imminent and widespread uprising at any moment.
Watch and judge why this insider is warning that the regime is destined for a collapse or #IranRevolution pic.twitter.com/Ysu6LbOhnz
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 1, 2024
Clerical Regime Infighting
In 2024, the Iranian regime’s internal feuds intensified, with factional rivalries erupting over political appointments, economic policy, and cultural legislation. Each crisis not only highlighted deep divisions but also exposed the weakening grip of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on the ruling system.
- Political Appointments and Power Struggles
July 2024: The sudden death of Ebrahim Raisi and the contentious installation of Masoud Pezeshkian as president sparked immediate tensions. Extremist factions close to Pezeshkian’s rival Saeed Jalili. With a strong hold on the new Parliament, the Paydari Front criticized Pezeshkian’s reliance on figures such as Mohammad-Javad Zarif, claiming his appointment violated laws banning dual citizens from sensitive positions. Khamenei intervened, calling for unity, but his vague comments further inflamed rivalries.
August-September 2024: The vetting of Pezeshkian’s cabinet became a battlefield for factions. Factions close to Khamenei weaponized past controversies, such as Zarif’s dual citizenship, to challenge nominations, while the so-called “reformists” accused their opponents of obstructing governance. Allegations of corruption and nepotism dominated the discourse, with Friday prayer leaders and others warning against “anti-regime” appointments.
December 2024: The controversy over dual nationality came to a head as Principlists threatened legal action against Zarif and Pezeshkian, accusing them of undermining national security. The Paydari Front MPs intensified their attacks, leveraging the crisis to push for impeachment.
- Economic Policy and Budgetary Conflicts
October-December 2024: The regime’s militarized budget for the Persian year 1404 sparked fierce debates in parliament. The budget’s fuel price hikes and tax burdens intensified factional blame games, with each side accusing the other of exacerbating economic hardship.
December 2024: Amid a worsening economic crisis, MPs attacked the administration for power outages, fuel shortages, and rising inflation. Extremist factions accused Pezeshkian of incompetence, while the so-called reformists highlighted systemic corruption, and IRGC-affiliated cartels’ tax evasion, and called on the Supreme Leader to change regional strategy and submit to foreign pressure.
#IranRevolution has changed the power dynamics in #Iran's society from top to bottom. Watch and judge how this regime insider is publicly ridiculing the regime's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and his orders. pic.twitter.com/gaekCzqR7s
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 13, 2023
- Cultural Policy and Social Control
December 2024: Following years of dispute, the mandatory hijab law became a litmus test for the regime’s factions. Many clerics, extremists, and Friday prayer leaders like Ahmad Alamolhoda demanded immediate enforcement, framing it as essential for regime survival. Revisionists, however, warned that rigid enforcement could ignite mass protests. This conflict reflected deeper fears of rebellion, with both sides accusing each other of jeopardizing the regime’s stability.
- Regional Policy and Security Failures
October 2024: Khamenei’s regional strategy and proxy warmongering faced internal criticism following the collapse of alliances in Syria, Palestine, and Lebanon. Revisionist factions, dubbed “reformists,” argued for a reevaluation of costly interventions, while factions close to Khamenei doubled down on “resistance narratives.” This disagreement weakened Khamenei’s position and exposed cracks in his once-unified foreign policy.
- Disputes Over Internet Restrictions
In 2024, disputes over internet censorship became a focal point of Iran’s internal factional struggles, reflecting deeper ideological divisions within the regime. Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration took steps to relax online restrictions, including lifting bans on WhatsApp and Google Play in December. While these measures were framed as efforts to ease pressures on civil society and stimulate economic growth, they primarily aimed to mitigate public dissent and stabilize the regime amid growing unrest.
This policy shift provoked fierce opposition from extremist factions, who viewed unrestricted internet access as a threat to the regime’s ideological control and a gateway for dissident forces who could expose the regime’s crimes and atrocities.
Conclusion:
The push toward Iran’s regime change in 2024 was significantly influenced by relentless waves of protests, daring actions by PMOI-led Resistance Units, and the defiant operations of Iran’s rebellious youth. These efforts were bolstered by the NCRI’s international campaigns and conferences, which raised awareness, called for the designation of the IRGC as a terrorist organization, condemned human rights violations, and sought to halt the death penalty in Iran. These factors will be thoroughly analyzed in a separate report.
In conclusion, 2024 was a pivotal year for Iran’s regime change movement. The interplay of domestic unrest, international isolation, and strategic setbacks in the region has left the clerical regime increasingly fragile, setting the stage for a potentially transformative future.