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In recent days, Tehran is amplifying its war rhetoric in a calculated attempt to project strength amid mounting internal crises, deepening regional isolation, and growing public discontent over inflation and economic hardship. Feeling increasingly cornered, the clerical dictatorship has launched an aggressive campaign of threats and belligerence aimed at shoring up the morale of its increasingly demoralized forces.
Senior officials and state-aligned media now openly warn of war while boasting of missile capabilities and nuclear expansion. But behind the fiery statements lies a regime struggling to manage its decline.
Safavi Declares “Stage of War”
Yahya Rahim Safavi, senior military adviser to the regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, declared that Iran is effectively “in a stage of war” with the U.S. and Israel, urging an “offensive strategy” in diplomacy, media, missiles, drones, and cyber operations: “We are not in a ceasefire; we are in a stage of war. The best defense is attack.”
#Iran News: Official Threatens Assassination of U.S. President Trump Amid Escalating Terror Rhetorichttps://t.co/VXW2hNWo5u
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) July 25, 2025
Kayhan Warns of “Achilles’ Heel” — Growing Public Discontent
The hardline daily Kayhan, overseen by Khamenei’s office, attempted to spin public sentiment by claiming that the recent 12-day conflict triggered widespread demands for more military spending. It asserted: While some segments of society once criticized military expenditures, during the 12-day war, demands for strengthening deterrence became a popular request.”
Kayhan even cited “unofficial polls” alleging that over 60% of Iranians now support accelerating nuclear deterrence. But this narrative stands in stark contrast to reality. Across the country, protests over water shortages, blackouts, rising gas prices, and unpaid wages have highlighted mounting public anger over the regime’s prioritization of regional adventurism over basic needs.
Analysts argue that Kayhan’s claims represent a deliberate effort to manufacture consent for increased militarization while the regime faces growing unrest at home and deepening economic collapse.
Missile Threats Reveal Regime’s Anxiety, Not Strength
Amir Hayat-Moghaddam, a member of the parliamentary security commission, issued some of the regime’s most extreme threats yet, boasting that Iran could target Washington D.C., New York, and every European capital from naval platforms stationed 2,000 kilometers off U.S. shores: “France, Germany, the U.K., and all of Europe are within range.”
#Iran’s Regime Struggles to Mask Post-War Weakness with Rhetoric and Repressionhttps://t.co/ITcBED4e0M
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) June 28, 2025
But behind the bravado lies deep insecurity. Military insiders acknowledge that Iran’s forces have faced setbacks in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq, undermining morale among rank-and-file IRGC units. Officials now resort to escalatory threats as a tool to project power externally and maintain cohesion internally.
Tehran’s Strategic Fears
Tehran’s aggressive stance is further fueled by fears of strategic encirclement. The proposed Zangezur Corridor — a U.S.-backed transit route linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan through Armenia — would cut off Iran’s land border with Armenia, tightening its isolation.
The pro-regime Farhikhtegan daily urged adopting a “Qatar model” of response, referencing the regime’s July 2 missile strike on the U.S. al-Udeid airbase in Qatar during the 12-day war. But the strike, which Washington later dismissed as symbolic due to advance coordination, highlighted Tehran’s limited capacity for real escalation.
Following the White House-brokered peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Tehran now fears that the U.S. will consolidate a strategic corridor undermining its influence in the South Caucasus — further feeding its paranoia and militaristic posture.
The potential reinstatement of suspended UN sanctions through the snapback mechanism has added new urgency. While some officials downplay the consequences, Tehran-aligned outlets such as Didban-e Iran warn the impact would be severe, restricting oil exports, cutting off global banking, and even placing Iran under Chapter VII of the UN Charter — a move that could justify international enforcement measures.
Khamenei’s Strategic Losses in 2024:
Apr 1 – Senior #IRGC commanders and Quds Force officials killed in Syria strike.
Jul 31 – Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh assassinated in Tehran.
Sep 17-18 – Pager and walkie-talkie explosions injured 3,000 and killed 40 Hezbollah commanders in… pic.twitter.com/ICd74GVLsG— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 1, 2025
Belligerence as a Symptom of Decline
The clerical dictatorship’s heightened rhetoric reflects weakness, not strength. After years of overreach, the regime now faces:
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Strategic losses in Gaza, Syria, and Iraq.
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Growing economic collapse and public anger over inflation.
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Deepening isolation after U.S.-brokered regional agreements.
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Eroding morale among IRGC and paramilitary forces.
By threatening missiles, nuclear escalation, and retaliation, Tehran aims to reassert control and mobilize its base, but these displays expose the regime’s diminished leverage and internal fragility. The more its power erodes, the louder its threats grow.