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The Iranian regime is embroiled in a heated internal debate over a potential increase in fuel prices, with government and parliamentary officials trading accusations in a bid to avoid blame. The contentious issue has rekindled memories of the November 2019 uprising, when a sudden fuel price hike triggered nationwide protests, leading to brutal crackdowns and the deaths of hundreds.
A Blame Game in Tehran
Masoud Pezeshkian, the regime’s President, reignited speculation about an imminent fuel price increase during a televised interview on December 2. In response to questions about energy tariffs, Pezeshkian acknowledged the severe “imbalances” plaguing the country’s energy, water, and financial systems. “If no foreign currency is allocated for fuel imports, then gasoline prices will naturally rise,” he said, emphasizing the government’s constrained options.
While Pezeshkian claimed his administration was working to address economic challenges, he shifted responsibility to previous governments, stating that the current crises result from years of “quick fixes” rather than substantive reforms. “Without proper management, the future generations will inherit a scorched land,” he added, underscoring the dire state of Iran’s energy reserves.
#Iran’s Dire Economic Collapse: Officials Scramble to Shift Blame and Brace for Social Unresthttps://t.co/UqdGP8pYH4
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) December 4, 2024
Parliament Pushes Back
The President’s remarks immediately drew criticism from parliamentary figures. MP Hamid Rasaee accused Pezeshkian of deflecting blame onto the legislature. “If you plan to raise gasoline prices, don’t pin it on parliament,” he said, referring to the government’s authority under the Targeted Subsidies Law to determine fuel pricing.
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of Parliament, echoed this sentiment, asserting that parliament had already provided the government with the legal framework to adjust fuel prices. “We will not intervene in this matter. Let the government handle it,” Ghalibaf said, distancing the legislative body from the controversial decision.
High-Stakes Discussions Among Leaders
The mounting tensions prompted a high-level meeting involving leaders of all three branches of government and senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials, including Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei and IRGC Commander Hossein Salami. The closed-door discussions reportedly focused on the security implications of a price hike, with officials acutely aware of the public unrest that erupted in 2019.
During that uprising, a sudden tripling of fuel prices led to widespread protests, which were met with a violent crackdown. Reuters confirmed reports of at least 1,500 deaths, with many more detained. This legacy looms large over any policy changes affecting fuel costs, as officials fear triggering another wave of public outrage.
Factional Feud Escalates in #Iran Over Zarif Appointment Amid Domestic and Regional Criseshttps://t.co/iO5uhIMyvv
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) October 23, 2024
Economic Pressures Mount
Iran’s energy crisis, euphemistically referred to as “energy imbalances,” results from years of underinvestment in infrastructure and mismanagement. Pezeshkian admitted that electricity consumption has soared well beyond global averages, forcing the government to impose power outages even in winter. Meanwhile, Iran’s fuel production struggles to meet domestic demand, exacerbating the crisis.
Abdolnasser Hemmati, Pezeshkian’s Economy Minister, called any price increase a “shocking decision,” highlighting the impact of fuel smuggling, and calling for “once-and-for-all” reforms to correct the disparities in energy pricing. However, MPs like Ramazan-Ali Sangdovini warned that any price increase would disproportionately harm low-income groups, potentially sparking further discontent.
Public Distrust and Growing Tensions
The regime’s internal conflict reflects a broader issue of public distrust and dissatisfaction. Farshad Momeni, a state-affiliated economist, criticized the government’s claims of addressing poverty and inequality. “Contrary to official rhetoric, next year’s budget proposals include measures that are at odds with promises to support the poor,” he said.
In addition, Iranian media has noted a growing sense of despair among citizens, with high inflation and declining living standards fueling calls for systemic change. Observers warn that the regime’s inability to manage the economic crisis or provide relief for struggling families could lead to widespread unrest.
As officials grapple with the looming fuel price hike, the Iranian regime faces a stark choice: delay the “shocking decisions” and risk further economic collapse, or implement the changes and face the wrath of an already disillusioned populace. The memory of the November 2019 uprising looms large, serving as a chilling reminder of the explosive consequences of mismanagement and public betrayal.
