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On February 17, in his latest speech, the regime’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei exposed the regime’s primary vulnerability—not external military threats, but the growing discontent of the Iranian people. Addressing a carefully selected audience under the guise of a meeting with “the people of East Azerbaijan,” Khamenei dismissed the prospect of foreign intervention while acknowledging the existential crisis posed by domestic opposition.
Khamenei confidently asserted that Iran faces no external military threats, boasting that the regime’s defense capabilities are at an “elite level” and that “both friends and foes” recognize its strength. “The issue today is not a military threat,” he claimed, signaling that the clerical regime has secured its position against conventional warfare through years of regional proxy conflicts and military entrenchment. He reassured his audience that “from the perspective of hard defense, from the perspective of hardware threats by the enemy, we have no worries or problems. Today, both we and our enemies know that Iran is at a high level of capability to counter hard threats.”
However, in stark contrast to this bravado, Khamenei’s real concern emerged when he warned of “soft warfare”—a term he used to describe internal dissent and what he sees as the enemy’s manipulation of public opinion. He acknowledged that “creating doubt about the core principles of the Islamic Revolution” is the real battleground, admitting that the clerical dictatorship’s greatest weakness is the growing skepticism within Iranian society. He warned that the “enemy aims to create division, to instill doubt in the fundamental beliefs of the revolution, and to weaken the people’s steadfastness in standing against adversaries.”
#Khamenei Spins Narratives to Boost Low Morale Amid #Iran’s Mounting Criseshttps://t.co/zEOHf5dAQf
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 23, 2025
In a striking admission of vulnerability, he implored the regime’s forces to counteract this so-called “soft warfare” by reinforcing propaganda efforts. “The enemy has not succeeded so far,” he claimed, “but we must not let this scheme take effect in the future.” He then turned to state-controlled media, cultural institutions, and the security apparatus, urging them to counteract this perceived psychological war by producing content, controlling narratives, and ensuring that “enemies do not infiltrate the minds of the people.” His appeal to the regime’s propaganda machine was an implicit acknowledgment that ideological loyalty among his own ranks is weakening.
Khamenei’s concern for morale among his own forces was evident throughout his speech. He described “doubt and hesitation” as tools of the enemy and insisted that “youth must not be swayed by whispers of despair.” Yet his repeated reassurances betrayed the clerical regime’s growing unease about internal dissent, particularly among its own security forces. In an attempt to rally confidence, he pointed to the February 10 anniversary celebrations, claiming they demonstrated unwavering public support. “Where else in the world do you see such massive crowds commemorating a revolution after 46 years?” he asked, failing to acknowledge the widespread coercion and incentives used to ensure turnout.
#Khamenei Targets U.S. in Speech to Mask #Iranian Regime’s Strategic Weaknesshttps://t.co/so3c1hhMdx
— NCRI-FAC (@iran_policy) January 8, 2025
Rather than offering solutions, Khamenei attempted to shift the blame, calling on the regime’s media apparatus and “active youth in cyberspace” to counter foreign narratives. His call for “content production” to combat “enemy propaganda” underscores the regime’s reliance on manufactured messaging rather than addressing the root causes of public disillusionment.
Khamenei’s speech laid bare an undeniable reality: the clerical dictatorship’s survival is no longer threatened by foreign military action but by the very people it governs. A regime that must continuously call upon its propaganda machine to maintain control is, in essence, admitting that it is losing its grip. When a government’s greatest concern is not an external adversary but its own citizens questioning its legitimacy, it signals an erosion of morale, social capital, and institutional stability. The fact that Khamenei dedicated a significant portion of his speech to rallying his forces against “soft warfare” suggests that even within the ranks of the regime, confidence in its longevity is at an all-time low.